GTN Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Gray Media Inc
Communication Services • Broadcasting
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About GTN Stock
We analyzed Gray Media Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran GTN through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
GTN Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Gray Media's substantial $5.8 billion debt burden, coupled with declining revenues and a recent net loss, poses a significant financial risk. An inability to effectively service or refinance this debt in a challenging market, alongside an accelerating secular decline in linear TV advertising, could lead to further erosion of equity value and potential liquidity issues.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
High
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Total debt of $5.8 billion is extremely high relative to market cap ($0.61B) and annual revenue ($3.1B).
- ⚠
Company shifted to a net loss of -$137 million in Q4 2025, after reporting positive net income in previous quarters.
- ⚠
Earnings are declining at an average annual rate of -27.4%, significantly underperforming the broader Media industry.
- ⚠
Operating in a mature, secularly declining linear broadcast media industry with no clear disruptive technology or growth pivot identified for 10x potential.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Accelerated decline in linear TV viewership and advertising spending
- 📅
Higher-than-anticipated interest rates impacting debt servicing costs
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if total debt-to-EBITDA (TTM) continues to increase or debt covenants are breached.
- 🚪
Sell if revenue decline accelerates beyond current trends, or digital growth fails to materialize.
- 🚪
Liquidate position if sustained net losses continue or free cash flow turns significantly negative without a clear turnaround plan.
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What Does Gray Media Inc (GTN) Do?
Market Cap
$590.32M
Sector
Communication Services
Industry
Broadcasting
Employees
9,118
Gray Media, Inc., a multimedia company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States. The company operates through Broadcasting, Production Companies, and Other segments. It also owns Gray Digital Media, a digital agency that provides clients with digital marketing strategies; and operates video production companies and studio production facilities. The company was formerly known as Gray Television, Inc. and changed its name to Gray Media, Inc. in January 2025. Gray Media, Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Visit Gray Media Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Gray Media (GTN) operates a large portfolio of local TV stations, generating revenue primarily from advertising and retransmission fees. While the company is operationally resilient and holds a dominant market position in local broadcasting, it faces significant structural challenges from a declining linear TV market and a heavy debt load. The investment thesis for 10x growth is fundamentally weak without a clear and disruptive strategic pivot that can overcome these headwinds and scale exponentially.
Is GTN Stock Undervalued?
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GTN Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$8.13
Bull Case
$10.00
Bear Case
$3.50
Valuation Basis
Based on analyst median price target of $8.13, reflecting a modest appreciation in a mature sector rather than exponential growth.
Entry Strategy
Consider accumulation on dips towards $5.00, but acknowledge lack of clear technical support within provided data. This is a speculative entry for a very long-term horizon if a turnaround pivot is identified.
Exit Strategy
Take profit at $8.13 (analyst median target). Stop-loss below $4.50 to limit downside risk given high debt and declining profitability.
Portfolio Allocation
1% for aggressive risk tolerance, reflecting very high risk and low probability of 10x growth.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is GTN Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
3.99
Forward P/E
5.45
EV/EBITDA
6.42
PEG Ratio
0.03
Price/Book
0.21
Price/Sales
0.17
Profitability
Net Margin
-4.40%
Return on Equity
7.23%
Revenue Growth
5.39%
EPS
$-1.41
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.87
Quick Ratio
0.77
Debt/Equity
2.01
Total Debt
$5.81B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$289.00M
Does GTN Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Eroding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Gray Media's local market dominance and broadcast licenses provide a narrow moat, but its durability is threatened by the accelerating secular decline of linear television and fierce competition from digital platforms for advertising dollars and viewership.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Rapid cord-cutting and shift to streaming services undermining traditional broadcast viewership.
- •Increased competition from digital news and social media platforms for local advertising spend.
- •Rising costs for content acquisition and retransmission agreements.
GTN Competitive Moat Analysis
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GTN Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral. Institutional ownership is high at 78.64%, but analyst consensus is 'Hold' (3 buy, 2 hold, 1 sell), suggesting caution despite some positive ratings.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
General reference to Form 4 insider trading activity exists, but specific names, titles, shares, values, or dates for the last 90 days are not detailed in the provided intelligence.
Options Flow
Normal options activity.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-07
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
No specific historical earnings reaction pattern is provided in the intelligence. Given the lack of consensus estimates and declining profitability, the stock price reaction to Q1 2026 results could be volatile.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
N/A - no specific data to identify best-in-class, though Townsquare Media is mentioned as a competitor.
Market Share Trend
Stable, retaining market leadership within its niche as the largest U.S. owner of top-rated local TV stations.
Valuation vs Peers
N/A - no specific valuation ratios (P/E, EV/EBITDA, etc.) or peer comparisons provided in the intelligence.
Competitive Advantages
- •Extensive local market penetration and scale (117 markets, 37% of TV households)
- •Established brand power in local news and content
- •Content rights/partnerships (e.g., Atlanta Braves simulcast deal)
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive GTN Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Release (May 7, 2026)
- •Potential for higher political advertising revenue during upcoming election cycles
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Further expansion of digital revenue streams and partnerships (e.g., local sports deals like Atlanta Braves)
- •Ongoing debt reduction efforts beyond the $10M Term F loan
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Successful strategic pivot towards new media formats or content monetization models (currently undefined)
- •Industry consolidation that significantly benefits remaining players
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for GTN?
- ✓
Significant and sustained acceleration in digital revenue growth, particularly from new initiatives.
- ✓
Material reduction in total debt and improvement in key liquidity ratios (e.g., debt-to-EBITDA).
- ✓
Announcement of a truly transformative business model shift or acquisition that addresses secular declines.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with GTN
See how Gray Media Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gray Media Inc GTN | $590.3M | 1.2 | 4.0 | $3.1B | -4.4% | 5.4% | |
Walt Disney Co DIS | $171.2B | 2.7 | 14.0 | $91.4B | 6.3% | 10.0% | Compare → |
Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $4.7T | 1.0 | 29.1 | $402.8B | 37.9% | 17.4% | Compare → |
Meta Platforms Inc META | — | 5.1 | 15.7 | — | 30.1% | 22.2% | Compare → |
Netflix Inc NFLX | $388.5B | 0.7 | 29.1 | $46.9B | 28.5% | 16.7% | Compare → |
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How Gray Media Inc Makes Money
Gray Media Inc. is a leading broadcast company that owns and operates a vast network of local television stations across the United States. Its primary revenue streams are generated through advertising sales (local, national, and political) on its TV stations and digital platforms, as well as retransmission fees received from cable and satellite providers for carrying its signals. The company focuses on local news, sports, and entertainment content to attract viewers and advertisers, leveraging its extensive geographic footprint to reach a large portion of U.S. TV households.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Gray Media Inc (GTN)?
As of April 11, 2026, Gray Media Inc has a DVR Score of 1.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Gray Media Inc?
Gray Media Inc's market capitalization is approximately $590.3M. The company operates in the Communication Services sector within the Broadcasting industry.
What ticker symbol does Gray Media Inc use?
GTN is the ticker symbol for Gray Media Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for GTN stock?
Our analysis rates Gray Media Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of GTN?
Gray Media Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.0. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Gray Media Inc's revenue growing?
Gray Media Inc has reported revenue growth of 5.4%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is GTN stock profitable?
Gray Media Inc has a profit margin of -4.4%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the GTN DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Gray Media Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 11, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for GTN (Gray Media Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.