CTRA Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Coterra Energy Inc
Energy • Oil & Gas E&P
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CTRA Stock
We analyzed Coterra Energy Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CTRA through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
CTRA Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk is the failure or significant delay of the merger with Devon Energy, which would leave Coterra operating as an independent entity without the anticipated scale and synergistic benefits, potentially impacting its standalone valuation and future prospects. Additionally, a substantial decline in the value of Devon Energy shares post-merger would directly affect the realized value for CTRA shareholders.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Loss of independent strategic direction and operational control due to pending merger.
- ⚠
Future value for CTRA shareholders is capped by the fixed 0.70 DVN share exchange ratio, limiting independent 10x upside.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Delay or termination of the merger with Devon Energy
- 📅
Significant decline in Devon Energy's stock price post-merger
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Public announcement of merger termination or significant regulatory roadblocks.
- 🚪
Devon Energy's stock price falls significantly below a level that makes the 0.70 exchange ratio unattractive (e.g., DVN trading below $45, implying CTRA below $31.50).
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What Does Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA) Do?
Market Cap
$25.46B
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas E&P
Employees
915
Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company's properties include the Permian Basin with approximately 2,97,000 net acres in west Texas and southeast, New Mexico; Marcellus Shale properties approximately 1,86,000 net acres located in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania; and Anadarko Basin with approximately 1,81,000 net acres located in mid-continent region in Oklahoma. It also operates natural gas and saltwater gathering, and disposal systems in Texas. The company sells its natural gas to industrial customers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, energy companies, pipeline companies, and power generation facilities. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Visit Coterra Energy Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Investing in Coterra Energy at this juncture is primarily an arbitrage-like play on the successful completion of its all-stock merger with Devon Energy. The thesis posits that CTRA shares, currently trading below the implied value of the fixed 0.70 DVN share exchange ratio, offer a low-risk entry into a larger, more diversified, and financially robust upstream energy company with significant operational scale and asset quality in core U.S. basins.
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CTRA Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$36.83
Bull Case
$42.00
Bear Case
$32.00
Valuation Basis
Based on analyst median price target, which aligns with implied value from Devon Energy's current valuation at 0.70x DVN share.
Entry Strategy
For investors seeking exposure to the combined entity, entry near current levels ($33.53) provides approximately 10% upside to the median target of $36.83, primarily driven by the merger closing. Dollar-cost averaging in the low $30s might mitigate minor short-term volatility.
Exit Strategy
Exit upon merger completion, converting CTRA shares to DVN shares. For CTRA stock specifically, consider taking profits if the share price approaches or exceeds the implied value of 0.70x DVN's current price (e.g., if DVN is $50, then CTRA's implied value is $35). Stop-loss at $32.00 (Roth Mkm neutral target).
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for conservative risk tolerance due to the fixed-exchange nature of the investment and lack of independent growth potential, serving more as an arbitrage play or a low-risk entry into the combined Devon entity.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CTRA Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.83
Forward P/E
11.82
EV/EBITDA
13.68
PEG Ratio
0.61
Price/Book
1.65
Price/Sales
2.93
Profitability
Gross Margin
83.19%
Operating Margin
32.07%
Net Margin
22.46%
Return on Equity
11.77%
Revenue Growth
40.07%
EPS
$2.25
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.19
Quick Ratio
1.15
Debt/Equity
0.26
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$1.09B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.27
Dividend Yield
2.62%
Does CTRA Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Coterra's moat, largely based on its resource-rich acreage and operational efficiency, is durable within the context of the E&P sector. Post-merger, these assets contribute to a larger, more diversified entity with enhanced scale, strengthening the combined company's competitive position. However, it remains subject to commodity price cycles and regulatory environments.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Volatile commodity prices for oil and natural gas impacting profitability.
- •Increased regulatory scrutiny or environmental mandates on hydraulic fracturing and emissions.
- •Depletion of existing reserves without successful replacement, or higher costs of new resource development.
CTRA Competitive Moat Analysis
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CTRA Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. Retail sentiment is likely focused on the merger outcome and the arbitrage potential, rather than independent growth drivers for CTRA.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive. Analyst consensus is 'Moderate Buy' with median target of $36.83, reflecting confidence in the merger's closing and the value proposition. Institutional activity in Q4 2025 shows mixed sentiment (some selling by Aberdeen/Universal, some buying by Howard Capital).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 insider filings (individual buys/sells by executives) reported in the last 90 days. Institutional activity from Q4 2025 13F filings: Aberdeen Group plc sold 46,005 shares (11.3% reduction, value ~$9.504M remaining). Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH sold 37,562 shares (7.2% reduction, value ~$12.78M remaining). Howard Capital Management bought 38,605 shares (34.3% increase, value ~$3.98M).
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual put/call ratios or large block trades indicative of institutional positioning were reported in the real-time intelligence.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-May 2026 (Q1 2026 upcoming)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historical patterns are not explicitly provided in the real-time data. Typically, E&P companies' stock prices react to production beats/misses, commodity price forecasts, and capital guidance updates.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Devon Energy (DVN) – The future combined entity. Independently, Cabot (CTRA is often compared with) is noted for earnings momentum.
Market Share Trend
Gaining via the pending merger with Devon Energy, forming a larger, more scaled player in key U.S. basins.
Valuation vs Peers
CTRA's trailing P/E of 15.30 and PEG of 0.61 suggest it is reasonably to potentially undervalued compared to some upstream energy peers, especially considering its healthy balance sheet and projected EPS growth for 2026 (+24.0% YoY).
Competitive Advantages
- •High-quality asset base in prolific regions (Permian Basin, Marcellus Shale, Anadarko Basin).
- •Operational efficiency and strong balance sheet supporting the combined entity.
- •Enhanced scale and diversification post-merger with Devon Energy.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CTRA Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings upcoming (Consensus EPS $0.90)
- •Completion of merger with Devon Energy (targeted Q2 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Realization of synergies from Devon Energy merger
- •Strategic positioning and scale benefits of combined entity in key basins
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •No independent long-term catalysts for CTRA due to merger
- •Combined Devon Energy's long-term performance in the E&P sector
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CTRA?
- ✓
Public statements or SEC filings regarding the progress and expected closing date of the Devon Energy merger.
- ✓
Performance of Devon Energy's stock price, as CTRA's value is directly linked to it post-merger.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with CTRA
See how Coterra Energy Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coterra Energy Inc CTRA | $25.5B | 1.5 | 14.8 | $6.7B | 22.5% | 40.1% | |
Chevron Corp CVX | $317.8B | 0.1 | 20.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
EOG Resources Inc EOG | — | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Slb NV SLB | $79.4B | 0.9 | 23.5 | $40.0B | 9.4% | -1.6% | Compare → |
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM | $644.6B | 2.0 | 22.3 | $85.1B | 8.9% | -4.5% | Compare → |
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How Coterra Energy Inc Makes Money
Coterra Energy Inc. is an independent company focused on the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in key U.S. basins. It makes money by extracting these hydrocarbon resources from its significant acreage positions, primarily in the Permian Basin, Marcellus Shale, and Anadarko Basin, and then selling them into various energy markets. The company's business model relies on efficient drilling and production techniques, optimized capital allocation to its high-quality assets, and leveraging favorable commodity prices to generate revenue and cash flow.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA)?
As of April 27, 2026, Coterra Energy Inc has a DVR Score of 1.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Coterra Energy Inc?
Coterra Energy Inc's market capitalization is approximately $25.5B. The company operates in the Energy sector within the Oil & Gas E&P industry.
What ticker symbol does Coterra Energy Inc use?
CTRA is the ticker symbol for Coterra Energy Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for CTRA stock?
Our analysis rates Coterra Energy Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CTRA?
Coterra Energy Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.8. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does Coterra Energy Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Coterra Energy Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 2.62%.
Is Coterra Energy Inc's revenue growing?
Coterra Energy Inc has reported revenue growth of 40.1%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is CTRA stock profitable?
Coterra Energy Inc has a profit margin of 22.5%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the CTRA DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Coterra Energy Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 27, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CTRA (Coterra Energy Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.