CHRW Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc
Industrials • Integrated Freight & Logistics
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CHRW Stock
We analyzed CH Robinson Worldwide Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CHRW through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
CHRW Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Sustained weakness in global freight volumes could continue to depress revenue and pressure margins, making it difficult for the company to justify its premium valuation. This could lead to a de-rating, causing the stock to trade closer to the lower end of analyst price targets ($90-$100 range).
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q4 2025 revenue decline of 6.5% YoY, indicating current market contraction for a large-cap player.
- ⚠
Premium TTM P/E of 34.84 for a company showing revenue decline, suggesting market expectations are high for a turnaround.
- ⚠
Nature of business as a 'Dividend Aristocrat' inherently limits hyper-growth potential often associated with 10x returns.
- ⚠
No clear revolutionary pivot or new market entry that could justify a 10x valuation multiple expansion for a nearly $20B company.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Prolonged muted freight demand impacting revenue growth
- 📅
Escalation of Middle East conflict leading to sustained high diesel prices and waiving of carrier fees
- 📅
Intensified competitive pricing pressure from other tech-enabled 3PLs
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Three consecutive quarters of YoY revenue decline.
- 🚪
Gross margin falling consistently below Q4 2025 levels due to competitive pressure or cost increases.
- 🚪
Analyst downgrades or significant reduction in price targets by multiple firms.
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What Does CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW) Do?
Market Cap
$19.50B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Employees
12,953
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation and related logistics and supply chain services in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding. The company offers transportation and logistics services, such as truckload; less than truckload transportation brokerage services, which include the shipment of single or multiple pallets of freight; intermodal transportation that comprises the shipment service of freight in containers or trailers by a combination of truck and rail; and non-vessel operating common carrier and freight forwarding services, as well as organizes air shipments and provides door-to-door services. It also provides customs brokerage services; and other logistics services, such as fee-based managed, warehousing, and other services. In addition, the company is involved in the buying, selling, and/or marketing of fresh fruits, vegetables, and other value-added perishable items under the Robinson Fresh trade name. Further, the company offers transportation management and other surface transportation services. It provides its fresh produce to grocery retailers, restaurants, produce wholesalers, and foodservice distributors through a network of independent produce growers and suppliers. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
Visit CH Robinson Worldwide Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
C.H. Robinson is a financially robust, market-leading 3PL company strategically leveraging AI to drive operational efficiencies and incrementally gain market share within a mature industry. While it offers stability and potential for modest appreciation through continuous innovation and a strong moat, its large market capitalization and inherent industry characteristics make it unsuitable for investors seeking 10x growth within a 3-5 year horizon.
Is CHRW Stock Undervalued?
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CHRW Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$182.83
Bull Case
$215.00
Bear Case
$90.00
Valuation Basis
Based on median analyst consensus target of $182.83, implying a forward P/E of approximately 36x on projected FY26 EPS of ~$5.08.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging near current levels ($168.5) or on dips, acknowledging the limited immediate upside to median analyst targets.
Exit Strategy
Consider taking profits around the $185-$190 range. Place a stop-loss order if price drops below $150, which could indicate a significant re-evaluation due to market or company-specific headwinds.
Portfolio Allocation
2-3% for moderate risk tolerance, reflecting stability rather than high growth potential.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CHRW Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
34.04
Forward P/E
4.83
PEG Ratio
1.79
Profitability
Operating Margin
5.30%
Net Margin
3.62%
Return on Equity
34.24%
Revenue Growth
-6.50%
EPS
$1.23
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.53
Quick Ratio
1.53
Debt/Equity
0.59
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.90
Dividend Yield
1.40%
Does CHRW Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
4 Identified
C.H. Robinson's vast, integrated network of carriers and customers creates strong network effects and high switching costs for clients. Its advanced technology platform and increasing AI capabilities serve as intangible assets that enhance operational efficiency and are difficult for smaller competitors to replicate, securing a durable competitive advantage.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Aggressive pricing strategies from smaller, digitally-native competitors
- •Disruptive new technologies from entrants that bypass traditional 3PL models
- •Significant downturns in global trade and freight volumes reducing demand for services
CHRW Competitive Moat Analysis
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CHRW Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (no specific data provided, assume average retail interest for a blue-chip stock)
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (High institutional ownership at 93.15%-94%, recent analyst upgrades including BofA Securities Buy rating with a $219 price target on March 27, 2026).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Insiders Arun Rajan and Michael Castagnetto purchased shares in the last 90 days. No specific Form 4 details including dates, shares, or dollar values were provided for these transactions, and no CEO/CFO activity was flagged.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual options activity data provided, assume standard liquidity and open interest).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-29
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Q4 2025 showed an EPS beat despite a revenue miss. Stock reaction may be mixed depending on forward guidance and margin commentary.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
N/A
Market Share Trend
Gaining market share in a muted market, aided by AI productivity tools.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a P/E of 34.84, which is a premium compared to typical valuations for mature logistics companies, especially considering a recent revenue decline. This suggests high expectations for future efficiency and market share gains.
Competitive Advantages
- •Extensive global network of 450,000 carriers and 75,000 customers
- •Proprietary Navisphere technology platform
- •Significant investment and reported gains in AI for operational efficiency and quoting
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CHRW Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings (expected April 29, 2026)
- •Continued reporting of Lean AI productivity gains and efficiency improvements
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Further market share gains in a competitive environment through technology
- •Potential industry consolidation spurred by AI adoption and market pressures
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Deep integration of AI and automation across the logistics value chain
- •Expansion into adjacent high-value services leveraging existing network
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CHRW?
- ✓
Consistent reacceleration of revenue growth exceeding industry averages.
- ✓
Significant expansion of operating margins driven by AI initiatives.
- ✓
Strategic acquisitions that materially expand market opportunity or technological moat.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with CHRW
See how CH Robinson Worldwide Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW | $19.5B | 0.1 | 34.0 | $17.7B | 3.6% | -6.5% |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW)?
As of April 2, 2026, CH Robinson Worldwide Inc has a DVR Score of 0.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of CH Robinson Worldwide Inc?
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc's market capitalization is approximately $19.5B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry.
What ticker symbol does CH Robinson Worldwide Inc use?
CHRW is the ticker symbol for CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for CHRW stock?
Our analysis rates CH Robinson Worldwide Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CHRW?
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.0. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does CH Robinson Worldwide Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, CH Robinson Worldwide Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 1.40%.
Is CH Robinson Worldwide Inc's revenue growing?
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc has reported revenue growth of -6.5%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is CHRW stock profitable?
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc has a profit margin of 3.6%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the CHRW DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of CH Robinson Worldwide Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 2, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CHRW (CH Robinson Worldwide Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.