CELH Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Celsius Holdings Inc
Consumer Defensive • Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CELH Stock
We analyzed Celsius Holdings Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CELH through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
CELH Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is the sustained deceleration of organic growth for the core CELSIUS brand, notably its +6% YoY retail sales for the 13 weeks ending March 29, 2026, being increasingly masked by acquisition-driven revenue. This, combined with an intensifying competitive landscape from major players like Monster and Red Bull, could lead to further gross margin compression (already down from 52% to 48% YoY) and hinder long-term profitability if acquisitions fail to fully offset organic slowdown.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Gross margin contracted to 48% in Q1 2026 from 52% a year prior, indicating pricing pressure or higher input costs.
- ⚠
Core CELSIUS brand retail sales increased only 6% YoY for the 13-week period ended March 29, 2026, suggesting organic slowdown relative to overall company growth.
- ⚠
Valuation multiples (P/S, P/E) remain elevated, requiring continued hyper-growth to justify, especially if the core brand struggles.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 earnings miss on August 6, 2026: Missing EPS estimates of $0.43 or reporting lower guidance could lead to a significant stock correction.
- 📅
Increased competitive promotional activity from Monster/Red Bull in late 2026: If competitor pricing actions lead to a further gross margin contraction below 45%.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly North America revenue growth (excluding acquisition impact) falls below 20% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if gross margin consistently declines below 45% for two consecutive quarters, signaling unsustainable pricing or cost pressures.
- 🚪
Exit if Adjusted EBITDA margin drops below 20% for two consecutive quarters, indicating significant loss of operating leverage.
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What Does Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH) Do?
Market Cap
$7.46B
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Employees
1,073
Celsius Holdings, Inc. develops, processes, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes functional energy drinks in the United States, North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers CELSIUS, a lifestyle and energy drink; CELSIUS Originals and Vibe, which are functional energy drinks in various flavors that is offered in carbonated and non-carbonated forms; CELSIUS ESSENTIALS, a functional energy drink formulated with aminos; CELSIUS On-the-Go Powder, a functional energy drink in powder form; and CELSIUS Hydration, a line of zero-sugar hydration powders infused electrolytes in various fruit-forward flavors, as well as CELSIUS ready-to-drink products. It distributes its products through direct-to-store delivery, independent distributors, supermarkets, convenience stores, drug stores, nutritional stores, food service providers, and mass merchants, as well as natural food stores, fitness centers, mass market retailers, vitamin specialty stores, club stores, gyms, and e-commerce platforms. The company was formerly known as Vector Ventures, Inc. and changed its name to Celsius Holdings, Inc. in January 2007. Celsius Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
Visit Celsius Holdings Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Celsius leverages its hyper-growth momentum through the PepsiCo distribution network to expand its multi-brand functional beverage portfolio globally, while successfully mitigating core organic growth slowdowns through accretive acquisitions and maintaining or expanding its Adjusted EBITDA margin to 25%+ (currently 25.0%), then it can achieve $5B+ in annual revenue by FY2027 and justify a market capitalization exceeding $70B, representing 10x upside, as the market re-rates its long-term market leadership potential in functional beverages.
Is CELH Stock Undervalued?
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CELH Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$67.00
Bull Case
$85.00
Bear Case
$45.00
Valuation Basis
40x forward P/E on estimated FY2026 Adjusted EPS of $1.67
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $28-$32, utilizing potential dips to the 50-day moving average as entry points.
Exit Strategy
Consider taking initial profits at $65-$70, with a stop-loss order set at $25 to protect against significant downside.
Portfolio Allocation
5-7% for aggressive risk tolerance, 3-5% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CELH Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
42.95
Forward P/E
36.25
EV/EBITDA
28.39
PEG Ratio
0.93
Price/Book
4.22
Price/Sales
5.78
Profitability
Gross Margin
49.62%
Operating Margin
7.68%
Net Margin
5.85%
Return on Equity
6.31%
Revenue Growth
123.34%
EPS
$0.67
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.68
Quick Ratio
1.25
Debt/Equity
0.23
Total Debt
$894.90M
Cash & Equivalents
$805.96M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$554.55M
Free Cash Flow
$523.61M
EBITDA
$753.60M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.98
Does CELH Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is expanding primarily through its strategic partnership with PepsiCo, which provides immense distribution and supply chain advantages, and successful integration of high-growth acquired brands. This creates significant barriers to entry for smaller players, and scale advantages for larger ones. However, consumer tastes in beverages are dynamic, requiring continuous innovation and marketing investment to maintain brand relevance against strong competition.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intensified competition from well-capitalized rivals like Monster Beverage and Red Bull, potentially leading to price wars or loss of shelf space.
- •Rapid shifts in consumer preferences away from current functional beverage trends, diminishing brand relevance.
- •Potential operational challenges or disruptions to the PepsiCo distribution network affecting market access and growth.
CELH Competitive Moat Analysis
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CELH Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish, driven by strong growth narrative and product popularity among fitness communities.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with 21 Buy ratings vs. 4 Hold and 1 Sell, and recent reiterations of 'Overweight'/'Buy' by major banks.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Director Hal Kravitz purchased 8,400 shares on May 22, 2026, indicating insider confidence.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific unusual put/call ratio data provided in the research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-08-06
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
CELH typically experiences a positive stock price reaction to strong earnings beats and upward revisions to guidance, given its growth profile. Conversely, any slowdown in growth or margin compression has historically led to corrections.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Monster Beverage (MNST)
Market Share Trend
Gaining significant market share in the functional beverage category, particularly in North America, heavily augmented by recent acquisitions.
Valuation vs Peers
Celsius trades at a premium to established beverage peers like Monster Beverage on EV/Sales (2.71x forward EV/Sales noted) due to its hyper-growth trajectory, although the provided forward P/E of 17.83x seems unusually low and may not reflect consensus.
Competitive Advantages
- •Exclusive distribution partnership with PepsiCo, offering unparalleled market reach.
- •Diversified multi-brand portfolio (CELSIUS, Alani Nu, Rockstar) appealing to different consumer segments.
- •Strong brand power and consumer loyalty in the health-and-wellness functional beverage niche.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CELH Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 earnings report on August 6, 2026: Outperformance on revenue (> $850M) or Adjusted EBITDA margin (>25.5%) could trigger a re-rating.
- •PepsiCo distribution expansion into new major retail chains in North America (Q3/Q4 2026): A specific announcement could unlock ~$50M-$100M in incremental annualized revenue.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Successful launch of new functional beverage line under an acquired brand (e.g., Alani Nu) in early FY2027: A new product exceeding $150M in annual run-rate revenue by Q2 2027.
- •Increased international market penetration, particularly in Europe/Asia (FY2027): If international revenue doubles YoY to $140M+, signaling global expansion success.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Diversification beyond energy drinks into other functional beverage categories (e.g., hydration, recovery) by FY2028: Achieving 10%+ revenue contribution from new segments could expand TAM and justify higher multiples.
- •Establishing global market leadership in functional beverages through sustained M&A and organic growth by FY2029: If market share exceeds 15% in key global markets, this could lead to a valuation premium as a category leader.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CELH?
- ✓
Monitor quarterly Adjusted EBITDA margin: a sustained level above 25% would confirm strong profitability despite growth.
- ✓
Track North America revenue growth from newly acquired brands (e.g., Alani Nu, Rockstar) for their contribution to overall growth, aiming for >50% YoY for acquired segments.
- ✓
Observe international revenue's percentage contribution to total revenue: growth beyond 10% would signal successful global expansion beyond North America.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with CELH
See how Celsius Holdings Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Celsius Holdings Inc CELH | $7.5B | 9.0 | 43.0 | $2.1B | 5.8% | 123.3% | |
Costco Wholesale Corp COST | — | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Coca-Cola Co KO | $339.2B | 0.5 | 24.8 | $48.9B | 27.8% | 5.1% | Compare → |
PepsiCo Inc PEP | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Procter & Gamble Co PG | $341.2B | 0.2 | 20.5 | $84.3B | 19.2% | 3.3% | Compare → |
Walmart Inc WMT | $972.0B | 0.7 | 42.8 | $713.2B | 3.1% | 5.9% | Compare → |
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How Celsius Holdings Inc Makes Money
Celsius Holdings develops, markets, and distributes a portfolio of functional beverages, primarily focusing on health-conscious energy drinks under its flagship CELSIUS brand, as well as Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy (acquired). The company's business model relies on a strategic distribution partnership with PepsiCo, which enables widespread retail penetration across North America and, increasingly, international markets. Revenue is generated from selling these ready-to-drink beverages to a broad customer base including retailers, distributors, and directly to consumers, catering to individuals seeking fitness support, enhanced energy, and calorie burning through its unique formulations.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH)?
As of June 15, 2026, Celsius Holdings Inc has a DVR Score of 9.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Celsius Holdings Inc?
Celsius Holdings Inc's market capitalization is approximately $7.5B. The company operates in the Consumer Defensive sector within the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry.
What ticker symbol does Celsius Holdings Inc use?
CELH is the ticker symbol for Celsius Holdings Inc. The company trades on the NCM.
What is the risk level for CELH stock?
Our analysis rates Celsius Holdings Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CELH?
Celsius Holdings Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 43.0. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Celsius Holdings Inc's revenue growing?
Celsius Holdings Inc has reported revenue growth of 123.3%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is CELH stock profitable?
Celsius Holdings Inc has a profit margin of 5.8%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the CELH DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Celsius Holdings Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 15, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CELH (Celsius Holdings Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.