ARRY Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Array Technologies Inc
Technology • Solar
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ARRY Stock
We analyzed Array Technologies Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ARRY through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ARRY Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Array's ability to convert its record $2.4 billion domestic orderbook into profitable revenue could be challenged by rising input costs, persistent supply chain disruptions, or labor shortages, potentially causing project delays and eroding the reaffirmed 28.2% gross margin and full-year adjusted EBITDA of $200-$230 million, especially given the scale of the upcoming projects.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Low
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $13.5 million, despite positive adjusted EPS, indicates continued challenges in achieving full GAAP profitability.
- ⚠
Lack of verifiable recent insider buying activity (last 90 days), despite the strong orderbook and positive analyst sentiment, could signal a lack of conviction from management.
- ⚠
The significant concentration of the $2.4 billion orderbook being ~95% domestic exposes the company to potential over-reliance on U.S. market and policy dynamics, limiting geographical diversification.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 earnings miss on revenue (below $300 million) or a significant downward revision (more than 5%) of FY2026 guidance during the Q2 earnings call (estimated August 2026).
- 📅
Major project delays or cost overruns affecting a Tier-1 customer contract (e.g., >$50 million project) reported in Q3/Q4 2026, leading to a material negative impact on projected gross margins.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly gross margin consistently drops below 20% for two consecutive quarters, signaling a fundamental erosion of pricing power or cost control.
- 🚪
Sell if management revises its FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance downwards by more than 10% from the current $200-$230 million range during an earnings call.
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What Does Array Technologies Inc (ARRY) Do?
Market Cap
$1.35B
Sector
Technology
Industry
Solar
Employees
1,021
Array Technologies, Inc. manufactures and sells solar tracking technology products in the United States, Spain, Brazil, Australia, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Array Legacy Operations and STI Operations. Its products portfolio includes DuraTrack HZ v3, a single axis tracker; Array STI H250, a dual-row tracker system; Array OmniTrack; Array SkyLink, a photovoltaic-powered control tracker system; and SmarTrack, a software and control-based product. Array Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Visit Array Technologies Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Array Technologies successfully executes on its record $2.4 billion domestic orderbook, consistently delivers gross margins above 25% (following Q1's 28.2%), and achieves its reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted net income per share of $0.65-$0.75, then it will demonstrate sustained market share gains and a clear path to significant profitability in the rapidly growing utility-scale solar market. This is bullish because the current $9.09 price and $1.40B market cap do not fully reflect the long-term revenue visibility, enhanced orderbook quality, and re-rating potential of a profitable leader in a critical decarbonization sector, offering potential for 5x-10x returns as it scales towards its $1.4B-$1.5B revenue target.
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ARRY Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$20.00
Bull Case
$35.00
Bear Case
$12.50
Valuation Basis
Based on 28x forward P/E applied to the mid-point of estimated FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance of $0.70 ($0.65-$0.75 range).
Entry Strategy
Accumulate positions between $8.50-$9.50, establishing a base near current levels, which show strong analyst support and are well below target prices.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $20.00, reassess at $25.00, and consider full exit if price target of $35.00 is reached. Implement a stop-loss at $7.50, approximately 15% below current price, to manage downside risk.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance due to small-cap status and competitive landscape, balanced by strong growth potential.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ARRY Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.20
Forward P/E
7.10
EV/EBITDA
12.40
PEG Ratio
1.00
Price/Book
1.80
Price/Sales
1.00
Profitability
Gross Margin
26.11%
Operating Margin
-2.90%
Net Margin
-5.56%
Return on Equity
-20.64%
Revenue Growth
13.19%
EPS
$-0.44
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.28
Quick Ratio
1.46
Debt/Equity
2.34
Total Debt
$850.00M
Cash & Equivalents
$210.00M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$5.00M
Free Cash Flow
-$45.00M
EBITDA
$154.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.84
Does ARRY Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The patented tracker design offers a narrow moat for 10-15 years by reducing installation time and costs for utility-scale solar projects. This efficiency creates a barrier to entry, but rapid technological advancements and aggressive R&D by larger competitors could eventually erode this advantage.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Rapid advancements in competitor technology or expiration of key patents could diminish Array's cost advantage and product differentiation.
- •Intensified price competition from larger, more scaled competitors like Nextracker could compress margins despite product advantages.
ARRY Competitive Moat Analysis
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ARRY Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (No specific data provided in research, defaulting to neutral).
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (Multiple 'Buy' ratings and price targets from Piper Sandler ($18), J.P. Morgan ($29, $27), Guggenheim ($22), and Citigroup ($12.5) indicate strong institutional conviction and projected upside).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No verifiable recent Form 4 filings for the last 90 days were provided in the supplied results. Older 2025 transactions were noted but are not within the requested period.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific options flow data provided in research, defaulting to normal activity).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated August 2026 (for Q2 2026 earnings).
Surprise Probability
Medium (Strong orderbook provides confidence, but execution on that scale carries inherent risks).
Historical Earnings Pattern
No discernible historical pattern of stock price reaction to earnings reports identified from the provided data.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
NXT
Market Share Trend
Gaining (evidenced by the record $2.4 billion orderbook and Tier-1 customer wins).
Valuation vs Peers
Likely trades at a discount to market leader Nextracker (NXT) given its smaller scale and recent turnaround, but analyst targets imply significant upside potential relative to current valuation.
Competitive Advantages
- •Patented, simplified tracker design (Duratrack) offering installation efficiency and cost advantages.
- •Strong domestic market focus, leveraging benefits from policy support like the IRA.
- •Established relationships with Tier-1 utility-scale customers.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ARRY Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated August 2026): A revenue beat on Q2 guidance of $300-$320 million or a upward revision of FY2026 guidance, signaling stronger-than-expected execution.
- •New large domestic order announcements (exceeding $100 million each) in Q2/Q3 2026, further validating the robust demand and expanding the orderbook beyond $2.4 billion.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •FY 2026 Earnings Report (estimated early 2027): Achieving or exceeding the reaffirmed Adjusted EBITDA of $200-$230 million and Adjusted EPS of $0.65-$0.75, confirming sustained profitability and operational efficiency.
- •Strategic expansion announcement into a key international market (e.g., Europe, Latin America) during H1 2027, with targeted revenue contribution of over $50 million in FY2027, diversifying the current 95% domestic orderbook.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Successful execution of the $2.4 billion orderbook by end of FY2027, leading to an annualized revenue run-rate exceeding $2.0 billion with sustained gross margins above 25%, justifying a re-rating to higher EV/Revenue multiples.
- •Achieving 25% global market share in utility-scale solar trackers by 2029 (from current estimated 10-15%), driven by product differentiation and cost advantages, solidifying market leadership and a premium valuation.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ARRY?
- ✓
Watch quarterly Adjusted EPS (target >$0.15 for Q2, Q3, Q4 2026 to reach FY target of $0.65-$0.75).
- ✓
Watch gross margin trend — sustained above 28% for subsequent quarters, indicating strong pricing and cost control.
- ✓
Watch new order bookings rate — a consistent rate of $500M+ per quarter would signal continued strong demand beyond the existing orderbook.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with ARRY
See how Array Technologies Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Array Technologies Inc ARRY | $1.3B | 7.9 | 8.2 | $1.2B | -5.6% | 13.2% | |
Apple Inc AAPL | $4.4T | 1.6 | 36.0 | $391.0B | 27.1% | 12.8% | Compare → |
Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $4.5T | 1.0 | 27.9 | — | 37.9% | 17.4% | Compare → |
Microsoft Corp MSFT | $3.2T | 0.5 | 25.6 | $281.7B | 39.3% | 17.9% | Compare → |
NVIDIA Corp NVDA | $5.3T | 6.2 | 33.1 | $130.5B | 63.0% | 70.7% | Compare → |
Nextpower Inc NXT | — | 8.5 | 28.9 | $3.4B | 17.1% | 0.0% | Compare → |
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How Array Technologies Inc Makes Money
Array Technologies designs, manufactures, and supplies solar tracking systems primarily for large-scale solar power projects in the utility sector. Their flagship 'Duratrack' system enables solar panels to follow the sun's path throughout the day, significantly maximizing energy capture and reducing overall project costs for their customers. They also provide fixed-tilt mounting systems, catering to the growing demand for efficient and cost-effective solar energy infrastructure.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Array Technologies Inc (ARRY)?
As of June 5, 2026, Array Technologies Inc has a DVR Score of 7.9 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Array Technologies Inc?
Array Technologies Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.3B. The company operates in the Technology sector within the Solar industry.
What ticker symbol does Array Technologies Inc use?
ARRY is the ticker symbol for Array Technologies Inc. The company trades on the NGM.
What is the risk level for ARRY stock?
Our analysis rates Array Technologies Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ARRY?
Array Technologies Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.2. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Array Technologies Inc's revenue growing?
Array Technologies Inc has reported revenue growth of 13.2%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ARRY stock profitable?
Array Technologies Inc has a profit margin of -5.6%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the ARRY DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Array Technologies Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 5, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ARRY (Array Technologies Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.