AMRC Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Ameresco Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About AMRC Stock
We analyzed Ameresco Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran AMRC through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
AMRC Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Ameresco's increasing net losses and declining operating income in Q1 2026, despite strong revenue growth, signal persistent challenges in project profitability and cost management. If these trends worsen, combined with high existing debt levels ($2.04B) and rising interest rates, the company could face significant pressure on cash flow and equity value, making future project financing more challenging and potentially requiring dilutive capital raises.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Low
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Widening net loss ($18.3M) and negative GAAP EPS ($0.35) in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025
- ⚠
Declining operating income and low operating margin (~2.5%) in Q1 2026
- ⚠
High total debt ($2.04B) relative to market capitalization and assets
- ⚠
Reliance on capital-intensive projects that inherently limit exponential scalability
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Further interest rate hikes impacting project financing costs
- 📅
Project delays or cost overruns impacting profitability
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure in specific energy services segments
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Sustained quarter-over-quarter decline in total backlog or awarded projects
- 🚪
Consistent negative free cash flow or significant margin contraction over multiple quarters
- 🚪
Failure to achieve full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.06-$1.28 for FY2026
Unlock AMRC Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
Investment Thesis
Ameresco is a leading pure-play beneficiary of the multi-trillion-dollar global decarbonization and energy transition trend. Its deep expertise, integrated solutions, and strong public sector relationships provide a significant competitive moat. Despite short-term profitability headwinds, the robust backlog and strategic capital infusions like the Neogenyx JV position it for substantial long-term growth and market share expansion in a critical and expanding market, with potential for significant upside if margins improve.
Is AMRC Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for AMRC
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
AMRC Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$43.01
Bull Case
$59.50
Bear Case
$28.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 28x forward P/E applied to estimated FY27 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.54
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips between $28-$30, leveraging recent support levels.
Exit Strategy
Take initial profits at $40-$45. Re-evaluate if operating margins consistently fail to improve or if debt reduction stalls. Stop loss at $25.00.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
Sign up free to unlock price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is AMRC Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
54.26
Forward P/E
36.93
PEG Ratio
2.07
Price/Book
2.13
Price/Sales
1.26
Profitability
Gross Margin
15.58%
Operating Margin
6.04%
Net Margin
1.59%
Return on Equity
2.97%
Revenue Growth
8.57%
EPS
$0.59
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.51
Quick Ratio
1.48
Debt/Equity
1.74
Total Debt
$2.04B
Cash & Equivalents
$146.50M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.56
Does AMRC Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Ameresco's moat is durable due to the high switching costs associated with complex, multi-year energy infrastructure projects, particularly with government clients. Its specialized engineering and project management expertise (intangible assets) and the scale required to execute large-scale projects make it difficult for new entrants to compete effectively.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intense pricing pressure from competitors on project bids
- •Technological obsolescence requiring constant R&D investment
- •Significant fluctuations in commodity prices or interest rates impacting project economics
AMRC Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
AMRC Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, as no specific recent social media trends are highlighted, but general interest in clean energy remains high.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral, due to lack of recent analyst rating data, but the strategic JV with HASI (a major institutional investor) is positive.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Normal insider activity (no significant buys/sells reported in last 90 days).
Options Flow
Normal options activity.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-08-04 (Q2 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Likely mixed reactions, with focus on profitability improvements and guidance for the remainder of FY2026 following Q1's mixed results.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Siemens AG (SIEGY)
Market Share Trend
Gaining
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium on Price-to-Sales (based on growth potential) but potentially discounted on near-term profitability metrics like P/E due to recent losses compared to more mature industrial peers. Likely closer to growth-oriented renewable infrastructure players.
Competitive Advantages
- •Integrated solutions across energy efficiency and renewable generation
- •Deep, long-standing public sector relationships and contracting expertise
- •Proprietary project development and operational know-how
Market Intelligence
Sign up free to unlock sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis
What Could Drive AMRC Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings on August 4, 2026
- •Neogenyx Fuels JV transaction close (expected Q2 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Conversion of robust $5.27B project backlog into revenue
- •Further project awards and strategic partnerships stemming from IRA implementation
- •Expansion of biofuels segment via Neogenyx JV
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Continued global adoption of decarbonization and energy transition solutions
- •Maturation of energy asset portfolio and recurring revenue streams
- •Technological advancements in storage and grid modernization
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Sign up free to see growth catalysts
What's the Bull Case for AMRC?
- ✓
Acceleration in backlog conversion and consistent margin expansion
- ✓
Sustainable improvement in net income and free cash flow generation
- ✓
Successful integration and scaling of the Neogenyx Fuels JV and other new initiatives
Bull Case Analysis
Sign up free to see the bull case
Competing with AMRC
See how Ameresco Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ameresco Inc AMRC | $1.7B | 8.6 | 54.3 | $1.8B | 1.6% | 8.6% |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Ameresco Inc Makes Money
Ameresco designs, builds, operates, and maintains renewable energy and energy efficiency infrastructure projects for customers across federal, state, and local governments, educational institutions, and commercial sectors. The company helps clients reduce energy costs and carbon emissions by implementing tailored solutions, including solar power, battery storage, microgrids, and combined heat and power plants. Ameresco generates revenue primarily through the upfront development and construction of these projects, as well as recurring income from long-term operations & maintenance contracts and direct energy sales from its owned energy assets.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Ameresco Inc (AMRC)?
As of May 6, 2026, Ameresco Inc has a DVR Score of 8.6 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Ameresco Inc?
Ameresco Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.7B..
What is the risk level for AMRC stock?
Our analysis rates Ameresco Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of AMRC?
Ameresco Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 54.3. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Ameresco Inc's revenue growing?
Ameresco Inc has reported revenue growth of 8.6%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is AMRC stock profitable?
Ameresco Inc has a profit margin of 1.6%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the AMRC DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Ameresco Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 6, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for AMRC (Ameresco Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.