ALT Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Altimmune Inc
Healthcare • Biotechnology
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ALT Stock
We analyzed Altimmune Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ALT through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
ALT Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Phase 3 trial delays or unexpected adverse events
- 📅
Negative or non-differentiated RECLAIM Phase 2 data
- 📅
Failure to secure a strategic partnership for Pemvidutide
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure or emergence of superior therapies
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What Does Altimmune Inc (ALT) Do?
Market Cap
$428.29M
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
59
Altimmune, Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing treatments for obesity, metabolic, and liver diseases. Its lead product candidate is pemvidutide, a GLP-1/glucagon dual receptor agonist, which is in Phase 3 trial for the treatment of obesity and metabolic associated steatohepatitis. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
Visit Altimmune Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Altimmune is a compelling high-risk, high-reward investment poised for exponential growth (10x potential) driven by Pemvidutide, a dual GLP-1/glucagon agonist, targeting the vast obesity and MASH markets. The recent FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for MASH dramatically de-risks the program and positions the company for accelerated development and potential market leadership. With a robust cash position and strategic partnerships on the horizon, Altimmune is executing on critical milestones that could unlock substantial shareholder value as it advances to Phase 3.
Is ALT Stock Undervalued?
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ALT Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$22.00
Bull Case
$30.00
Bear Case
$10.00
Valuation Basis
Based on average analyst price targets ($19.20 median, $22.38 average) reflecting a de-risked MASH program with FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation and future revenue potential post-Phase 3.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging around the current price of $3.51, given strong analyst conviction and recent positive catalysts. Look for dips towards $3.00 (recent support) if market volatility arises.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits at $15.00 (5x return) and $22.00 (12-month target). Consider a stop-loss order below $2.50 to protect against unexpected negative clinical or regulatory news.
Portfolio Allocation
7% for aggressive risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ALT Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-3.50
Price/Book
1.68
Profitability
Operating Margin
-2304609.80%
Net Margin
-214860.98%
Return on Equity
-49.35%
EPS
$-0.27
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
18.55
Quick Ratio
18.55
Debt/Equity
0.16
Total Debt
$34.29M
Cash & Equivalents
$274.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.13
Does ALT Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is primarily driven by intellectual property protection and the significant regulatory advantage of Breakthrough Therapy Designation, which can accelerate market entry and create a first-mover advantage for this specific mechanism in MASH. Its durability hinges on successful clinical outcomes and effective commercialization.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Failure of Pemvidutide in Phase 3 trials or inability to differentiate efficacy/safety vs. competitors
- •Introduction of superior or more cost-effective therapies by larger pharmaceutical companies
- •Expiration of key patents without new pipeline assets to sustain growth
ALT Competitive Moat Analysis
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ALT Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bullish (implied by institutional and insider activity)
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (78.05% institutional ownership; H.C. Wainwright Buy, target up $12 to $25; Truist Buy initiation $12; mixed views with B. Riley reducing target $18 to $13)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CFO Gregory L. Weaver bought 5,000 shares ($17,700) on March 6, 2026. CEO Jerome Benedict Durso bought 20,000 shares (recently) and 12,500 shares ($51,625) on Dec 22, 2025. Total last 3 months: Insiders bought 30,527 shares ($125,278).
Options Flow
Normal options activity
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early May 2026 (for Q1 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
As a clinical-stage biotech, stock price reaction is highly sensitive to clinical milestones and regulatory updates, less so to minor quarterly revenue or EPS figures. Volatility expected around major news events.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Eli Lilly (LLY) / Novo Nordisk (NVO) (Obesity) & Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) (MASH)
Market Share Trend
Gaining (Pemvidutide has zero market share but is positioned to enter and capture significant share in high-unmet need markets, especially with BT designation for MASH)
Valuation vs Peers
Currently valued at a significant discount to commercial-stage MASH/GLP-1 leaders, reflecting its clinical-stage status and higher risk profile, but at a premium for its significant 10x potential.
Competitive Advantages
- •Differentiated dual GLP-1/glucagon agonist mechanism (Pemvidutide)
- •FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for MASH
- •Strong balance sheet for funding near-term clinical trials
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ALT Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings (Estimated early May 2026)
- •Phase 3 MASH trial initiation (Planned 2026)
- •Topline data from RECLAIM Phase 2 trial (3Q 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Strategic partnership announcement for Pemvidutide
- •Updates on MASH Phase 3 trial enrollment progress
- •Clinical trial updates for obesity program
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Successful completion of MASH Phase 3 trials and data release
- •Regulatory submission and approval of Pemvidutide in MASH and/or obesity
- •Commercial launch and market penetration of Pemvidutide
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ALT?
- ✓
Announcement of a strategic partnership for Pemvidutide
- ✓
Positive Phase 3 MASH clinical trial updates or interim data
- ✓
Cash burn rate relative to cash on hand and future funding needs
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with ALT
See how Altimmune Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Altimmune Inc ALT | $428.3M | 8.6 | -3.5 | $26.0M | -214861.0% | 0.0% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $403.8B | 0.1 | 171.8 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | — | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $150.6B | 0.2 | 19.4 | $62.6B | 12.4% | -1.6% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $276.2B | 0.3 | 22.9 | $113.7B | 2.7% | 1181.0% | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Altimmune Inc (ALT)?
As of March 23, 2026, Altimmune Inc has a DVR Score of 8.6 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Altimmune Inc?
Altimmune Inc's market capitalization is approximately $428.3M. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Biotechnology industry.
What ticker symbol does Altimmune Inc use?
ALT is the ticker symbol for Altimmune Inc. The company trades on the NGM.
What is the risk level for ALT stock?
Our analysis rates Altimmune Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ALT?
Altimmune Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -3.5. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Altimmune Inc's revenue growing?
Altimmune Inc has reported revenue growth of 0.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is ALT stock profitable?
Altimmune Inc has a profit margin of -214861.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the ALT DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Altimmune Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 23, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ALT (Altimmune Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.