Stock Comparison

FCX vs HBM

Freeport-McMoRan Inc vs Hudbay Minerals Inc

Who's the better investment? Let's break it down.

The Verdict

HBM takes this one.

It's not even close. HBM outscores FCX by 7.6 points. That's a significant gap in our deep value framework.

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan Inc

0.6

out of 10

Distressed

Winner

HBM

Hudbay Minerals Inc

8.2

out of 10

Hidden Gem

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Valuation

FCX

Metric

HBM

$88.3B

Market Cap

$15.5B

40.1

P/E Ratio

Lower may indicate better value

16.6

24.1

Forward P/E

13.2

2.3

Price/Book

1.3

14.2

EV/EBITDA

4.7

Profitability & Growth

FCX

Metric

HBM

7.8%

Profit Margin

27.8%

25.4%

Gross Margin

37.1%

22.3%

Operating Margin

43.6%

12.0%

Return on Equity

20.7%

3.9%

Return on Assets

10.7%

-28.0%

Revenue Growth

13.5%

$1.53

EPS

$1.66

Financial Health

FCX

Metric

HBM

0.5

Debt-to-Equity

Lower = less leverage

0.5

2.3

Current Ratio

Above 1.0 is healthy

2.0

1.4

Beta

Lower = less volatile

3.1

1.0%

Dividend Yield

0.1%

Risk Comparison

FCX

Overall

Moderate

Financial

Low

Market

Medium

Competitive

Low

Execution

Medium

Regulatory

Medium

What Could Go Wrong

The biggest risk is the confluence of sustained weakness in global copper prices and persistent operational delays at the Grasberg Block Cave. Such a scenario would significantly impact FCX's revenue,...

Red Flags

🚩Significant insider selling in Q1 2026 (~$35.84M by CEO/CFO) signals potential lack of extraordinary...
🚩Downward revision of 2026 copper and gold production guidance due to Grasberg delays highlights exec...
🚩Capacity expansions from competitors (Kamoa-Kakula, Oyu Tolgoi) could ease copper supply tightness, ...

HBM

Overall

Moderate

Financial

Medium

Market

High

Competitive

Medium

Execution

Medium

Regulatory

Medium

What Could Go Wrong

A sustained downturn in global copper prices, potentially falling below $8,000/tonne, would significantly erode Hudbay's record Q1 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, directly impacting profitability an...

Red Flags

🚩Lower ore grades and prior depletion at Pampacancha weighed on Q1 2026 copper concentrate output, in...
🚩The significant capital expenditure required for major projects like Copper World and New Ingerbelle...

Competitive Moat

FCX

Rating

🛡️ Narrow

Trend

➡️ Stable

Cost AdvantagesIntangible Assets/IP

HBM

Rating

🛡️ Narrow

Trend

📈 Expanding

Cost AdvantagesEfficient ScaleIntangible Assets/IP

Investment Thesis

FCX0.6/10

Freeport-McMoRan is a leading supplier of copper, critically positioned to benefit from the accelerating global energy transition. Its world-class, low-cost assets, improving operational efficiency, and disciplined capital allocation make it a robust investment for long-term exposure to essential minerals, offering solid returns rather than exponential 10x growth.

Full FCX Analysis

HBM8.2/10

If Hudbay successfully ramps up production from its New Ingerbelle expansion and secures critical regulatory approvals for Copper World's full development, driving annual consolidated copper production towards 200,000+ tonnes by FY2028, then the company could achieve an annualized revenue run-rate exceeding $4B with substantial margin expansion. This is bullish because the market currently underva...

Full HBM Analysis

Price Targets & Strategy

Price Targets & Entry/Exit Strategy

Growth Catalysts

Growth Catalysts Comparison

Market Sentiment

Market Sentiment Analysis

The Deep Dive

FCX0.6/10

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) continues to demonstrate strong operational performance and financial health, evidenced by its Q1 2026 revenue and EPS beats (+8.7% revenue YoY, +150% net income YoY) and significantly improving net margins. The company benefits from secular tailwinds in copper demand, driven by global electrification, and boasts world-class assets like Grasberg with long-life reserves. However, as a large-cap, capital-intensive commodity mining operation, its business model fundamentally ...

Full FCX Analysis

HBM8.2/10

Score Change Explanation: Hudbay's score has improved from 78 to 82 due to several material positive changes since the last analysis. The most significant is the **strong Q1 2026 earnings beat**, reporting record revenue of $757.3 million and adjusted EPS of $0.40, significantly exceeding analyst estimates. This performance directly addresses the 'near-term execution uncertainty' highlighted previously due to the Q4 2025 EPS miss. Additionally, the **groundbreaking for the New Ingerbelle expansi...

Full HBM Analysis

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Not Financial Advice

This comparison is for educational purposes only. We are not financial advisors. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.