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UPBD Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

Upbound Group Inc

Technology โ€ข Software - Application

DVR Score

5.9

out of 10

Proceed with Caution

The Bottom Line on UPBD

We analyzed Upbound Group Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran UPBD through our deep value framework โ€” analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.

Updated Mar 19, 2026โ€ขRun Fresh Analysis โ†’

๐Ÿ“ˆUPBD Performance Overview3yr weekly

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Weekly adjusted close ยท Quarterly revenue & EPS ยท DVR score history

UPBD Stock Risk Analysis

Overall Risk

Aggressive

Financial Risk

Medium

Market Risk

High

About Upbound Group Inc (UPBD)

Sector

Technology

Industry

Software - Application

Market Cap Category

small

Market Cap

$1.03B

UPBD Deep Value Analysis

Upbound Group's strategic pivot to the scalable virtual lease-to-own model (Acima) targets a significant non-prime market with a compelling long-term vision. Its data-driven underwriting offers a potential competitive advantage. However, the path to 10x growth within 3-5 years remains severely challenged by persistent macroeconomic headwinds affecting its core demographic. The company's necessary cautious underwriting, while improving credit quality, inherently stifles the rapid expansion required for aggressive growth. The complex turnaround focuses on profitable scalability, but a clear, rapid acceleration for Acima's growth remains an obscured path, limiting immediate 10x potential. No material changes have occurred since the last analysis to warrant a significant score adjustment, maintaining consistency with previous assessment.

Compare UPBD to Similar Stocks

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UPBD Red Flags & Warning Signs

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  • โš 

    Further deterioration of the macroeconomic environment and consumer credit

  • โš 

    Increased charge-offs or delinquencies in Acima's portfolio

  • โš 

    Heightened regulatory scrutiny on lease-to-own industry

  • โš 

    Key competitor gaining significant market share

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UPBD Financial Health Metrics

Market Cap

$1.03B

P/E Ratio

12.17

UPBD Competitive Moat Analysis

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Moat Rating

Narrow

Moat Trend

Stable

Moat Sources

2 Identified

Brand PowerIntangible Assets (Data & Underwriting)

The moat is primarily driven by Upbound's brand recognition and the proprietary data and algorithms used in Acima's underwriting. This allows for better risk assessment and customer acquisition in the non-prime segment. Its durability hinges on continued investment in technology and data, and sustained brand loyalty.

UPBD Competitive Moat Analysis

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UPBD Catalysts & Growth Drivers

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • โ€ขQ1 2026 Earnings Report (estimated late April / early May 2026)
  • โ€ขContinued improvement in Acima's credit quality metrics
  • โ€ขAnnouncements of new retailer partnerships for Acima

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • โ€ขSustained improvement in consumer spending and non-prime credit health
  • โ€ขAcceleration in Acima's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth
  • โ€ขFurther operational efficiencies and margin expansion

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • โ€ขAcima establishing market leadership in the virtual lease-to-own segment
  • โ€ขExpansion into new underserved demographics or product categories
  • โ€ขPotential for M&A activity to consolidate market share

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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UPBD Bull Case: What Could Go Right

  • โœ“

    Quarterly acceleration in Acima GMV growth rates

  • โœ“

    Consistent reduction in charge-off and delinquency rates

  • โœ“

    Positive shifts in consumer confidence indicators for the lower-to-middle income demographic

Bull Case Analysis

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FAQ

What is the DVR Score for Upbound Group Inc (UPBD)?

As of March 19, 2026, Upbound Group Inc has a DVR Score of 5.9 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What is the market capitalization of Upbound Group Inc?

Upbound Group Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.0B. The company operates in the Technology sector within the Software - Application industry.

What ticker symbol does Upbound Group Inc use?

UPBD is the ticker symbol for Upbound Group Inc. The company trades on the NMS.

What is the risk level for UPBD stock?

Our analysis rates Upbound Group Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

What is the P/E ratio of UPBD?

Upbound Group Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.2. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.

Does Upbound Group Inc pay a dividend?

Yes, Upbound Group Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 885.00%.

How often is the UPBD DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of Upbound Group Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 19, 2026.

Important Disclaimer โ€“ Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.