TTMI Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
TTM Technologies Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About TTMI Stock
We analyzed TTM Technologies Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran TTMI through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
TTMI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company's strong performance is heavily tied to the AI infrastructure build-out. If AI spending slows, or if new competitors gain traction in high-performance PCB manufacturing, TTM's revenue growth could decelerate sharply, and its currently elevated valuation multiple could compress significantly, leading to a substantial stock price correction.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Trailing P/E of ~81 is very high for a manufacturing company, indicating significant future growth is already priced in.
- ⚠
Insider selling by multiple executives (Director Thomas T. Edman sold $7.39M, EVP Catherine A. Gridley sold $3.07M) after a strong price appreciation.
- ⚠
Component supplier business model inherently limits exponential growth compared to platform or software companies.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Deceleration of AI data center build-out spending
- 📅
Increased competition from Asian manufacturers in advanced PCBs
- 📅
Global economic downturn impacting capital expenditure
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if the book-to-bill ratio falls consistently below 1.0 for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if gross margins begin to decline year-over-year.
- 🚪
Exit if the 'AI-driven' Data Center/Networking segment shows significant quarterly revenue deceleration.
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Investment Thesis
TTM Technologies is a well-managed, financially robust company with a critical role in the accelerating AI infrastructure and robust Aerospace & Defense sectors. Its recent strong earnings, high growth rates, and positive outlook position it for substantial continued growth, although a 10x return within 3-5 years is unlikely given its core business model and current valuation.
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TTMI Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$185.00
Bull Case
$235.00
Bear Case
$115.00
Valuation Basis
39.2x forward P/E applied to estimated FY27 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.72, reflecting a premium for AI-driven growth.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on pullbacks towards the $145-$150 range, seeking consolidation after the recent surge.
Exit Strategy
Consider taking partial profits if the stock approaches $220-$230; set a stop-loss at $130 if key growth metrics decelerate significantly.
Portfolio Allocation
3-5% for moderate risk tolerance, given the recent run-up and high valuation.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is TTMI Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
80.36
Forward P/E
73.30
EV/EBITDA
13.90
PEG Ratio
55.07
Price/Book
4.90
Price/Sales
4.90
Profitability
Gross Margin
21.00%
Operating Margin
9.74%
Net Margin
6.46%
Return on Equity
10.61%
Revenue Growth
24.12%
EPS
$1.85
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.93
Quick Ratio
1.59
Debt/Equity
0.53
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$21.70M
Free Cash Flow
$47.40M
EBITDA
$132.90M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.97
Does TTMI Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Stable to slightly Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat persists due to the high technical barriers to entry, stringent regulatory requirements (especially in defense), and long customer engagement cycles. The investment required for state-of-the-art facilities also deters new entrants. However, it remains a manufacturing business susceptible to capital cycles and raw material costs.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Rapid technological shifts that could render current manufacturing processes obsolete
- •Intensified global competition, especially from Asian manufacturers, in less specialized segments
- •Significant capital expenditure requirements to maintain technological leadership
TTMI Competitive Moat Analysis
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TTMI Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish, fueled by strong earnings and the AI narrative, likely generating retail interest.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, evidenced by Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and institutional holdings like Vanguard's 5.04% stake. Recent post-earnings sentiment suggests favorable analyst revisions.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Director Thomas T. Edman sold 79,950 shares for $7.39M as of April 1, 2026. EVP Catherine A. Gridley sold 30,000 shares for $3.07M. These are significant sales into strength.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity provided in research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late July 2026
Surprise Probability
Medium-High (given recent beat and raised Q2 guidance, management may be conservatively guiding or highly confident)
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, the stock has reacted positively to recent earnings beats and strong guidance, indicating market sensitivity to growth narratives.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Amphenol (APH)
Market Share Trend
Gaining market share within high-growth, high-value segments like AI data centers and aerospace & defense, outpacing the broader PCB industry.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium to many traditional manufacturing peers, largely due to its strong positioning in Aerospace & Defense and AI infrastructure. Its P/E of ~81 significantly exceeds industry averages.
Competitive Advantages
- •Leading position in highly specialized and mission-critical PCB and RF solutions for A&D
- •Advanced manufacturing capabilities and technical expertise required for high-performance AI infrastructure components
- •Long-standing relationships and qualification with key customers in demanding sectors
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive TTMI Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (Estimated late July 2026)
- •Continued robust bookings and book-to-bill ratio above 1.0
- •Announcements of new strategic contracts in AI infrastructure
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Further expansion of AI-driven Data Center/Networking segment market share
- •Introduction of new high-performance PCB manufacturing technologies
- •Increased domestic manufacturing incentives for A&D components
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Becoming a dominant, indispensable supplier for next-generation AI and defense hardware
- •Potential vertical integration into higher-value sub-system assembly
- •Global expansion in high-tech manufacturing capacity
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for TTMI?
- ✓
Sustained YoY revenue growth above 25% in consecutive quarters
- ✓
Continued expansion of gross and operating margins
- ✓
Successful integration of any strategic acquisitions that expand its technological footprint
Bull Case Analysis
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How TTM Technologies Inc Makes Money
TTM Technologies designs and manufactures highly complex printed circuit boards (PCBs) and radio frequency (RF) components and integrated assemblies. It makes money by selling these essential, high-performance electronic components primarily to customers in the aerospace and defense, data center and networking (including AI infrastructure), medical, and industrial sectors. For example, they supply the specialized circuit boards that form the backbone of advanced military radar systems or the high-speed data interconnects crucial for AI servers. This business model thrives on precision manufacturing, engineering expertise, and stringent quality control, serving industries where performance and reliability are paramount.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for TTM Technologies Inc (TTMI)?
As of April 30, 2026, TTM Technologies Inc has a DVR Score of 2.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of TTM Technologies Inc?
TTM Technologies Inc's market capitalization is approximately $15.7B..
What is the risk level for TTMI stock?
Our analysis rates TTM Technologies Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of TTMI?
TTM Technologies Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 80.4. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is TTM Technologies Inc's revenue growing?
TTM Technologies Inc has reported revenue growth of 24.1%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is TTMI stock profitable?
TTM Technologies Inc has a profit margin of 6.5%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the TTMI DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of TTM Technologies Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 30, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for TTMI (TTM Technologies Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.