TEAM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Atlassian Corp
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About TEAM Stock
We analyzed Atlassian Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran TEAM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate-High. Here's what we found.
TEAM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Atlassian's aggressive AI pivot and cloud migration strategy may not achieve the desired market adoption or revenue acceleration, leading to continued net losses without commensurate growth. This could erode investor confidence and valuation multiples in a rising interest rate environment, especially if competitors deliver more impactful or rapidly adopted AI solutions.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate-High
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Negative net margin (Q2 FY2026: -3.29%) despite strong gross margins and FCF.
- ⚠
Intense competition from tech giants like Microsoft and Google with vast resources and broader ecosystems.
- ⚠
No specific insider buying reported in the last 90 days.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Slower-than-expected cloud migration or AI adoption
- 📅
Stronger-than-anticipated competitive responses from Microsoft/Google
- 📅
Economic downturn impacting enterprise software spending
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Sustained deceleration of cloud revenue growth below 20% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Failure of new AI products to gain significant market traction or positive user feedback within 12-18 months.
- 🚪
Free cash flow turning negative for two consecutive quarters without a clear path to recovery.
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Investment Thesis
Atlassian is a high-quality SaaS leader undergoing a strategic acceleration into AI and cloud, leveraging its sticky enterprise collaboration products (Jira, Confluence) and strong competitive moats. Its robust free cash flow fuels significant reinvestment into R&D for future growth, making it a compelling long-term play for leadership in the AI-augmented workspace despite current net losses, assuming successful execution of its AI strategy.
Is TEAM Stock Undervalued?
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TEAM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$108.00
Bull Case
$130.00
Bear Case
$60.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 60x forward P/E applied to projected FY2027 EPS of $1.80, reflecting sustained growth and AI upside.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $65-$70, considering potential post-earnings volatility. A dip towards $62-$65 would be a strong entry point.
Exit Strategy
Consider taking partial profits at $105-$110. Set a trailing stop-loss or exit if key growth metrics significantly underperform for two consecutive quarters.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is TEAM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-97.90
Forward P/E
12.00
EV/EBITDA
793.88
PEG Ratio
-2.15
Price/Book
11.60
Price/Sales
3.20
Profitability
Gross Margin
83.51%
Operating Margin
-3.21%
Net Margin
-3.29%
Return on Equity
-13.32%
Revenue Growth
20.12%
EPS
$-0.72
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.18
Quick Ratio
1.14
Debt/Equity
0.95
Total Debt
$1.22B
Cash & Equivalents
$1.57B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$1.33B
Free Cash Flow
$1.28B
EBITDA
-$22.99M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.93
Does TEAM Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Atlassian's moat is durable due to the deeply embedded nature of its products within enterprise workflows, the high switching costs associated with migrating integrated collaboration tools, and the network effects of its user base. Continuous innovation, particularly with AI, is crucial to maintain and expand this moat against well-resourced competitors.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Aggressive integration and AI development by larger competitors (e.g., Microsoft Copilot fully integrated into their ecosystem).
- •Disruption by new AI-native collaboration platforms that offer fundamentally different user experiences.
- •Inability to expand its product appeal and market reach beyond its traditional developer-centric user base.
TEAM Competitive Moat Analysis
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TEAM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bullish, often discussed positively within developer and tech communities for product utility.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (19 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell). Recent adjustments (Citigroup to mixed, Zacks to hold) suggest some cautious re-evaluation, but overall sentiment remains strong.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 filings reporting insider buying or selling activity were found in the available data for the last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity, with no specific unusual institutional positioning indicated in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-30
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Atlassian's stock typically exhibits significant volatility post-earnings, reacting positively to strong cloud growth beats and robust forward guidance, and negatively to any slowdown in growth or margin compression concerns.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
MSFT (Microsoft)
Market Share Trend
Stable to Gaining in its specific niches (dev tools, agile project management) due to strong product loyalty and ecosystem, but facing increased competitive pressure in broader enterprise collaboration from Microsoft and Google.
Valuation vs Peers
Atlassian trades at a premium on growth multiples (e.g., P/S, EV/Sales) compared to legacy software peers due to its higher growth trajectory and cloud transition. It may be at a discount to pure-play hyper-growth AI/SaaS companies, but direct comparisons are challenging due to its unique product suite.
Competitive Advantages
- •Strong brand loyalty and high switching costs within the developer and IT community for core products like Jira and Confluence.
- •Extensive third-party marketplace and integration ecosystem.
- •Deep expertise and focus on developer and team collaboration workflows.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive TEAM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q3 FY2026 Earnings Report (April 30, 2026 after market close)
- •Continued accelerated cloud revenue growth above 25% YoY
- •New AI feature rollouts (e.g., Confluence AI, Jira AI enhancements)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion of enterprise sales and large customer acquisition
- •Strategic partnerships to broaden ecosystem integration
- •Successful monetization strategies for AI features
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Market leadership in AI-augmented enterprise collaboration
- •Significant global market penetration beyond core developer base
- •Disruption of legacy workplace productivity suites
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for TEAM?
- ✓
Acceleration in cloud revenue growth consistently above 25% YoY.
- ✓
Clear positive commentary and adoption metrics for new AI features.
- ✓
Sustained positive free cash flow alongside continued reinvestment.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Atlassian Corp Makes Money
Atlassian primarily makes money by selling subscription-based software tools that help teams organize, track, and collaborate on projects. Its core products like Jira (for software development and project tracking) and Confluence (for team collaboration and knowledge sharing) are vital for businesses ranging from startups to large enterprises. They also offer tools for IT service management and agile planning. The business model emphasizes cloud deployment, providing flexibility and continuous feature updates to its customers, who pay recurring fees based on user count and product tiers. The company is actively integrating AI to enhance these offerings.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Atlassian Corp (TEAM)?
As of April 30, 2026, Atlassian Corp has a DVR Score of 8.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Atlassian Corp?
Atlassian Corp's market capitalization is approximately $18.7B..
What is the risk level for TEAM stock?
Our analysis rates Atlassian Corp's overall risk as Moderate-High. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of TEAM?
Atlassian Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -97.9. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Atlassian Corp's revenue growing?
Atlassian Corp has reported revenue growth of 20.1%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is TEAM stock profitable?
Atlassian Corp has a profit margin of -3.3%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the TEAM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Atlassian Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 30, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for TEAM (Atlassian Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.