ROST Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Ross Stores Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ROST Stock
We analyzed Ross Stores Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ROST through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ROST Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is that Ross's current premium valuation, trading above its peer average, cannot be sustained if its impressive growth rate decelerates even slightly, or if the flagged tariff and distribution cost pressures significantly compress its strong margins. This scenario could lead to a downward revision of earnings estimates and a contraction in its P/E multiple, potentially resulting in a 10-15% stock price correction despite continued solid operational execution.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Insider selling activity totaling $5.5 million in the last three months, particularly while the stock is near its 52-week high.
- ⚠
The current stock price of $227.82 is above the median analyst price target of $208.29, indicating limited conventional upside based on consensus.
- ⚠
Valuation premium (Forward P/E 30.91x vs. peer average 29.7x) without clear disruptive growth catalysts to justify exponential returns.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q1 FY2026 earnings miss or weak forward guidance
- 📅
Significant escalation of tariff and distribution costs impacting margins
- 📅
Economic downturn reducing consumer discretionary spending on apparel and home goods
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly comparable store sales growth falls below 2% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if operating margins show a persistent decline of more than 100 basis points for two consecutive quarters due to cost pressures.
- 🚪
Consider exiting if the forward P/E contracts significantly below the peer average (e.g., below 25x) without a broader market correction.
Unlock ROST Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
Investment Thesis
Ross Stores Inc. is a financially robust and operationally excellent off-price retailer, consistently delivering strong results and shareholder returns. While it does not offer the disruptive growth potential for a 10x return, it represents a high-quality defensive holding within the retail sector, offering stable, consistent earnings growth and a reliable dividend. Its ability to thrive in various economic conditions positions it as a resilient investment for long-term capital preservation and moderate appreciation.
Is ROST Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for ROST
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
ROST Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$247.00
Bull Case
$255.68
Bear Case
$216.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 30.9x forward P/E (current multiple) applied to $7.99 est. FY2027 EPS.
Entry Strategy
Given the stock is at a 52-week high and above the median analyst target, a prudent entry involves dollar-cost averaging on pullbacks, ideally towards the $200-$210 range (a potential support zone if momentum cools).
Exit Strategy
Consider taking partial profits at the $245-$250 range. A stop-loss order could be placed below $215 to protect against significant multiple contraction or unexpected earnings misses.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for moderate risk tolerance, considered a 'quality' stable growth holding rather than a high-growth speculation.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is ROST Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
34.24
Forward P/E
22.48
EV/EBITDA
16.21
PEG Ratio
3.01
Price/Book
9.39
Price/Sales
2.41
Profitability
Gross Margin
27.71%
Operating Margin
11.90%
Net Margin
9.43%
Return on Equity
36.70%
Revenue Growth
7.67%
EPS
$6.62
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.58
Quick Ratio
0.99
Debt/Equity
0.25
Total Debt
$1.50B
Cash & Equivalents
$4.59B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$2.47B
Free Cash Flow
$1.61B
EBITDA
$3.05B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.90
Dividend Yield
0.80%
Does ROST Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
2 Identified
Ross's moat is durable, rooted in its decades-long establishment of deep supplier relationships, economies of scale in purchasing and logistics, and a highly efficient operating model that allows it to consistently offer leading brands at significant discounts. This creates a strong cost advantage and a trusted brand for value-seeking consumers, making it difficult for new entrants to quickly replicate.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Persistent inflation and rising supply chain costs (tariffs, distribution) that erode its cost advantage.
- •Intensified competition from other off-price retailers or aggressive online discount platforms.
- •Significant shifts in consumer preference away from physical retail or toward alternative value shopping models.
ROST Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
ROST Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bullish, driven by recent stock price performance and consistent earnings beats, but lacking high-conviction chatter typical of 10x opportunities.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with several large institutional investors (GF Fund Management, Norges Bank, Marshall Wace, Bank of America) increasing their holdings.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
COO sold 15,813 shares on March 25, 2026. CMO sold 5,506 shares on March 25, 2026. Total insider sales were 25,756 shares worth $5,521,004 over the last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific unusual put/call ratio or large block trades were flagged in the research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-May 2026 (Q1 FY2026 results)
Surprise Probability
High (company has delivered positive earnings surprises in the last 4 consecutive quarters and analysts project continued strong EPS growth).
Historical Earnings Pattern
The stock typically reacts positively to earnings beats, as evidenced by hitting a 52-week high following the strong Q4 FY2025 report.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
TJX Companies (TJX)
Market Share Trend
Stable, with incremental gains through new store openings and consistent operational excellence, maintaining a leading position in the off-price segment.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a slight premium to the sector on forward P/E (30.91x vs. peer average 29.7x) and a significant premium on trailing cash flow (27.4x vs. peer average 20.3x).
Competitive Advantages
- •Exceptional execution in merchandising and inventory management
- •Strong cost control and efficient distribution network
- •High return on invested capital (36.7%) indicating operational effectiveness
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive ROST Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 FY2026 Earnings Report (Estimated early-May 2026)
- •Continued positive comparable store sales growth
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Consistent execution on planned store expansion initiatives
- •Successful mitigation of tariff and distribution cost pressures
- •Potential for further dividend increases
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained market leadership and operational efficiency in the off-price retail segment
- •Continued share repurchases (if implemented, not specified in research)
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for ROST?
- ✓
Consistent delivery of positive comparable store sales and revenue growth in line with or exceeding guidance.
- ✓
Maintenance of healthy gross and operating margins, demonstrating effective cost management against external pressures.
- ✓
Continued shareholder-friendly capital allocation, including dividend growth and potential share repurchases.
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Ross Stores Inc Makes Money
Ross Stores Inc. operates as a leading off-price retailer, primarily through its 'Ross Dress for Less' and 'dd's DISCOUNTS' stores. The company makes money by purchasing excess inventory, closeouts, and past-season merchandise from a vast network of brand-name and designer manufacturers at deep discounts. These products, including apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashion items, are then sold to budget-conscious consumers at 20-60% below regular department and specialty store prices. Ross leverages its efficient supply chain, opportunistic buying strategies, and low-cost operating model to provide consistent value and drive high inventory turnover.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Ross Stores Inc (ROST)?
As of April 19, 2026, Ross Stores Inc has a DVR Score of 1.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Ross Stores Inc?
Ross Stores Inc's market capitalization is approximately $73.4B..
What is the risk level for ROST stock?
Our analysis rates Ross Stores Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ROST?
Ross Stores Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.2. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does Ross Stores Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Ross Stores Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.80%.
Is Ross Stores Inc's revenue growing?
Ross Stores Inc has reported revenue growth of 7.7%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is ROST stock profitable?
Ross Stores Inc has a profit margin of 9.4%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the ROST DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Ross Stores Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 19, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ROST (Ross Stores Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.