PAC Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About PAC Stock
We analyzed Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran PAC through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
PAC Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
A prolonged or deeper-than-expected decline in passenger traffic, possibly due to economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, or new global health concerns, would significantly impact PAC's aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue streams despite its strong operational efficiency and margin improvements.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 passenger traffic decline of -5.5% YoY, which could persist or worsen.
- ⚠
The core business model lacks disruptive elements for 10x growth potential.
- ⚠
Valuation metrics for this stable sector may not justify significant multiple expansion.
- ⚠
Reliance on economic and tourism cycles makes it susceptible to macro shocks.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Further decline in passenger traffic due to economic slowdowns or health crises
- 📅
Regulatory changes or increased scrutiny on concession fees and terms
- 📅
Significant increases in operational costs (e.g., fuel, labor) not offset by pricing power
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Consistent negative passenger growth over 3+ consecutive quarters that deviates from guidance.
- 🚪
Significant adverse regulatory changes impacting concession terms or profitability.
- 🚪
Sustained decline in EBITDA margins below the 60% level without clear recovery path.
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Investment Thesis
PAC offers a compelling investment for those seeking stable, dividend-paying exposure to resilient infrastructure and Mexican economic growth. Its strong operational efficiency, wide economic moat, and prudent capital allocation support consistent profitability and cash flow, making it a reliable long-term holding for income and moderate capital appreciation, though it lacks the disruptive potential for a 10x return within 3-5 years.
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PAC Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$294.66
Bull Case
$327.40
Bear Case
$245.55
Valuation Basis
Based on 18x forward P/E applied to estimated FY26 EPS of $16.37.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards $260-$270, which may act as a near-term support level. Optimal entry would be below $250.
Exit Strategy
Consider profit-taking between $310-$325. A stop-loss order could be placed around $240 to limit downside risk.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for moderate risk tolerance, focusing on stable income and long-term capital appreciation rather than aggressive growth.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is PAC Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.16
Forward P/E
19.46
EV/EBITDA
16.70
PEG Ratio
4.49
Price/Book
10.95
Price/Sales
5.48
Profitability
Gross Margin
100.00%
Operating Margin
42.46%
Net Margin
23.10%
Return on Equity
45.58%
Revenue Growth
23.19%
EPS
$18.93
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.85
Quick Ratio
0.85
Debt/Equity
2.15
Cash & Equivalents
$23.19B
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$1.17B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.41
Dividend Yield
3.74%
Does PAC Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
2 Identified
PAC's moat is highly durable, primarily stemming from its long-term, government-issued concession agreements that grant it near-monopoly status over specific airport operations. The high capital intensity, regulatory hurdles, and strategic importance of airports create significant barriers to entry, making it virtually impossible for new competitors to emerge.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Government intervention or renegotiation of concession terms and fees.
- •Unexpected shifts in global travel patterns or the emergence of alternative transportation methods that bypass air travel.
- •Increased regulatory burden or unexpected capital expenditure requirements from authorities.
PAC Competitive Moat Analysis
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PAC Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral (No recent analyst upgrades/downgrades or target changes available in research)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No significant insider buying or selling activity reported in the last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No unusual put/call ratio or activity disclosed in research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late July 2026 (for Q2 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Stock price reactions typically vary based on performance relative to guidance and broader market sentiment for infrastructure assets, often showing moderate movements rather than sharp swings.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
ASUR (Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste)
Market Share Trend
Stable, as market share is largely determined by fixed concession agreements and regional monopolies.
Valuation vs Peers
Likely trades at a reasonable valuation for a stable infrastructure company, potentially at a slight premium due to its strong profitability metrics and improving margins. Specific peer valuation data is not available to confirm.
Competitive Advantages
- •Exclusive long-term concession agreements for operating airports.
- •Strategic geographic locations in key Mexican tourist and business hubs.
- •Diversified portfolio of airports reduces reliance on any single market.
- •Strong operational efficiency leading to high EBITDA margins.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive PAC Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated late July 2026)
- •Continued integration and revenue contribution from CBX stake
- •Seasonal peak travel periods driving passenger traffic recovery
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Further recovery and growth in international travel (especially US-Mexico routes)
- •Successful execution of planned Ps.13.5 billion capex for 2026, enhancing capacity and services
- •Potential for additional strategic airport acquisitions or concession renewals
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained economic growth and tourism development in Mexico and Latin America
- •Leveraging diversified portfolio to mitigate regional economic downturns
- •Optimization of non-aeronautical revenue streams
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for PAC?
- ✓
Sustained acceleration in total passenger traffic growth, particularly international.
- ✓
Consistent growth in non-aeronautical revenue per passenger.
- ✓
Announcement of new long-term concession extensions or significant value-accretive acquisitions.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV Makes Money
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) operates and develops 12 airports across Mexico's Pacific region and one in Jamaica under long-term government concessions. The company generates revenue by charging airlines for aeronautical services (like landing and parking fees, passenger charges) and by providing a variety of non-aeronautical services to travelers and tenants, including retail, food and beverage, car rentals, and advertising space. Essentially, PAC acts as a landlord and service provider for air travel hubs, benefiting from the growing flow of passengers and cargo through its strategically located facilities.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV (PAC)?
As of April 26, 2026, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV has a DVR Score of 2.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV's market capitalization is approximately $173.7B..
What is the risk level for PAC stock?
Our analysis rates Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of PAC?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.2. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV pay a dividend?
Yes, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 3.74%.
Is Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV's revenue growing?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV has reported revenue growth of 23.2%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is PAC stock profitable?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV has a profit margin of 23.1%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the PAC DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 26, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for PAC (Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.