OMDA Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Omada Health Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About OMDA Stock
We analyzed Omada Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran OMDA through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
OMDA Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Omada's profitability could prove inconsistent, especially if growth slows or competitive pressures intensify, leading to sustained operational losses. This might necessitate further capital raises, diluting existing shareholders and severely hindering the path to 10x growth potential.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
CEO Sean P. Duffy and other insiders sold shares totaling $120,483 in the last 90 days, despite recent profitability.
- ⚠
Q1 2026 consensus EPS estimate is negative (-$0.13), following a profitable Q4 2025, suggesting inconsistent profitability.
- ⚠
Significant competition from larger players like Hinge Health (guiding much higher revenue) could cap Omada's market share expansion.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Disappointing Q1 2026 earnings or negative guidance
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure impacting market share or pricing
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth decelerates below 25% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if the company reports sustained net losses without a clear path to profitability or significant cash burn without sufficient cash reserves.
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Investment Thesis
Omada Health is a high-growth small-cap company positioned in the expanding digital chronic care management market, demonstrating a successful pivot to profitability and strong gross margins. Its scalable platform and positive institutional interest suggest significant upside potential as it captures market share and consolidates its competitive position, aiming for sustained long-term growth and potential 10x returns as a future market leader.
Is OMDA Stock Undervalued?
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OMDA Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$29.00
Bull Case
$42.00
Bear Case
$16.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 3.5x P/S applied to estimated FY26 revenue of $479M, yielding $1.67B market cap, divided by estimated shares outstanding of 57.25M (current market cap / current price).
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $14.50-$16.50, buying on dips towards previous support levels around $14.
Exit Strategy
Take initial profits at $25-$28, with a stop loss at $13.50 if growth decelerates significantly.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for aggressive risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is OMDA Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-78.68
Profitability
Gross Margin
65.69%
Operating Margin
-5.41%
Net Margin
-4.91%
Return on Equity
-7.10%
EPS
$-0.23
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.60
Quick Ratio
3.47
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.36
Does OMDA Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is strengthening as Omada accumulates patient data, refines its programs, and deepens integrations with partners, increasing the switching costs for users and clients. However, new entrants or competitive innovations could still pose threats without a unique technological or regulatory barrier.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Competitors developing superior or more cost-effective digital health solutions.
- •Failure to achieve consistent, demonstrably better health outcomes for patients.
- •Rapid shifts in healthcare policy or employer benefit preferences.
OMDA Competitive Moat Analysis
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OMDA Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. Limited specific data available in the provided intelligence for strong social media sentiment trends.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive. 25 institutional buyers with $121.60M inflows and 0 sellers in the last 12 months, and 'Moderate Buy' analyst consensus.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CEO Sean P. Duffy sold 4,063 shares ($58,263) on March 9, 2026. Total insiders sold 8,776 shares ($120,483) in last 90 days. No insider buys reported.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual options activity was reported in the provided intelligence.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-07
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Only one recent earnings report (Q4 2025) showing an EPS beat, making a definitive historical pattern difficult to establish. The stock reaction to the Q1 2026 report will be key.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Hinge Health (HNGE)
Market Share Trend
Gaining. Demonstrated by 58% YoY revenue growth, outpacing some competitors in percentage terms.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading broadly in line or slightly higher P/S (approx. 3x annualized Q4 revenue) compared to peers like Hims & Hers (HIMS, ~1.9x) and Hinge Health (HNGE, ~2.7x), considering its smaller size and higher recent growth rate.
Competitive Advantages
- •Strong gross margins (72.6%) indicating efficient service delivery.
- •Proven platform for chronic disease management achieving GAAP profitability.
- •Established partnerships within employer and health plan ecosystems.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive OMDA Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings on 2026-05-07 (after market close)
- •Potential announcements of new health plan or employer partnerships
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion into additional chronic disease areas or new geographic markets
- •Strategic integrations or product enhancements to improve patient outcomes and engagement
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Emergence as a dominant, comprehensive digital health platform for chronic care
- •Further validation of cost savings and health outcome improvements leading to increased adoption
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for OMDA?
- ✓
Acceleration in revenue growth above 60% YoY.
- ✓
Consistent GAAP profitability and positive free cash flow generation.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Omada Health Inc Makes Money
Omada Health provides a comprehensive digital platform designed to help individuals manage and prevent chronic conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, and behavioral health issues. The company partners primarily with large employers and health plans, offering personalized, evidence-based programs that combine digital tools, expert coaching, and peer support. Revenue is generated through these enterprise contracts, typically based on a per-member-per-month (PMPM) fee or value-based agreements tied to health outcomes, aiming to reduce long-term healthcare costs for its clients.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Omada Health Inc (OMDA)?
As of May 4, 2026, Omada Health Inc has a DVR Score of 6.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Omada Health Inc?
Omada Health Inc's market capitalization is approximately $901.0M..
What is the risk level for OMDA stock?
Our analysis rates Omada Health Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of OMDA?
Omada Health Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -78.7. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is OMDA stock profitable?
Omada Health Inc has a profit margin of -4.9%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the OMDA DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Omada Health Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 4, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for OMDA (Omada Health Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.