NFG Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
National Fuel Gas Co
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About NFG Stock
We analyzed National Fuel Gas Co using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran NFG through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
NFG Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The $2.62B CenterPoint Energy Ohio LDC acquisition, while strategic, is substantial for NFG's market cap. Integration challenges, higher-than-expected financing costs, or regulatory hurdles could strain financials and delay anticipated accretive benefits, potentially impacting dividend growth and stock performance.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Absence of significant open-market insider buying despite large acquisition announcement
- ⚠
Long-term structural headwind from decarbonization trends for natural gas
- ⚠
Capital intensity of business requires continuous investment, potentially limiting cash for other initiatives.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Unexpectedly weak Q2 FY26 earnings or guidance revision tomorrow
- 📅
Regulatory pushback on rate cases or acquisition terms
- 📅
Significant downturn in natural gas prices affecting upstream segment
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if dividend growth stagnates or is cut due to cash flow pressures
- 🚪
Sell if regulatory environment becomes consistently hostile to natural gas infrastructure
- 🚪
Consider exit if debt-to-equity ratio significantly increases post-acquisition beyond conservative levels, coupled with declining FCF.
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Investment Thesis
National Fuel Gas offers investors a stable, integrated energy utility with predictable, regulated cash flows and a strong dividend. Its recent strategic acquisition in Ohio enhances its regulated asset base and provides a clear path for incremental, stable growth within a defensive sector, making it an attractive holding for income-focused and risk-averse portfolios.
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NFG Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$95.00
Bull Case
$105.00
Bear Case
$80.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 14x forward P/E applied to an estimated FY26 EPS of $6.78 (reflecting organic growth and acquisition contribution).
Entry Strategy
Consider accumulation on dips towards the $85-$87 range, which may represent a short-term support level. Optimal for long-term, income-focused investors.
Exit Strategy
For income-focused investors, hold as long as dividend is stable and regulatory environment is favorable. Consider partial profit-taking above $100; stop-loss below $80 if significant regulatory changes or commodity price collapse occurs.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for conservative to moderate portfolios seeking stable income and defensive exposure.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is NFG Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.97
Forward P/E
12.16
EV/EBITDA
5.89
PEG Ratio
1.83
Price/Book
2.42
Price/Sales
3.50
Profitability
Gross Margin
57.85%
Operating Margin
23.94%
Net Margin
15.63%
Return on Equity
21.09%
Revenue Growth
112.85%
EPS
$7.17
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.44
Quick Ratio
0.32
Debt/Equity
0.92
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.47
Dividend Yield
2.41%
Does NFG Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
NFG's moat is durable due to the high capital costs of infrastructure, regulatory protections, and the essential nature of natural gas services. The integrated model further strengthens it by diversifying revenue streams.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Accelerated decarbonization policies impacting natural gas demand and infrastructure utilization
- •Adverse regulatory decisions on rate cases or environmental compliance costs
NFG Competitive Moat Analysis
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NFG Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (focus on stability and income, not high growth speculative interest)
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral (Zacks Rank #3 'Hold'; no recent upgrades/downgrades or price target changes reported in the brief, indicating general market consensus of stability)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Routine compensation grants for Directors David F. Smith, David Hugo Anderson, David C. Carroll, and Joseph N. Jaggers on April 1, 2026, at $93.29/share. No open-market buys or sells from executive management reported in the last 90 days, indicating no strong conviction changes.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no unusual put/call ratios or significant block trades indicated in the brief).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-29
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
NFG has beaten EPS estimates in the last two quarters by an average of 10.41%, indicating a tendency for positive surprises; market reaction is typically stable to moderately positive on beats.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
WEC Energy Group (WEC)
Market Share Trend
Stable, with recent acquisition enhancing its regulated utility market share in Ohio.
Valuation vs Peers
NFG's implied prior P/E of ~12x (Q4 2025) is generally in line or slightly below sector average for integrated utilities, which often trade between 15-20x P/E, suggesting it's fairly valued for its stability rather than growth.
Competitive Advantages
- •Integrated business model reducing commodity price volatility impact
- •Regulated utility assets provide stable, predictable cash flows and local monopolies
- •Long-term infrastructure investments and contracts in midstream segment
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive NFG Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings release (April 29, 2026 after market close)
- •Progress/closure on CenterPoint Energy Ohio LDC acquisition (timing unspecified)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Successful integration and realization of synergies from Ohio LDC acquisition (6-18 months)
- •Rate case approvals for regulated segments, supporting stable revenue streams
- •Commodity price stability supporting upstream profitability
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Continued optimization of integrated natural gas assets for efficiency and stable returns (18+ months)
- •Strategic adaptation to evolving energy landscape and decarbonization trends
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for NFG?
- ✓
Regulatory approvals for the Ohio acquisition and future rate cases
- ✓
Trends in natural gas demand and pricing, particularly impacting the upstream segment
- ✓
Updates on dividend policy and capital expenditure plans
Bull Case Analysis
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How National Fuel Gas Co Makes Money
National Fuel Gas Co. operates as a diversified, integrated natural gas company, serving customers across multiple states. It generates revenue from three main segments: exploring and producing natural gas (upstream), transporting and storing natural gas through pipelines (midstream), and distributing natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers as a regulated utility (downstream). This integrated model allows the company to capture value at different stages of the natural gas supply chain, providing stable revenue streams and managing commodity price volatility, making it an essential service provider.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for National Fuel Gas Co (NFG)?
As of April 28, 2026, National Fuel Gas Co has a DVR Score of 1.8 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of National Fuel Gas Co?
National Fuel Gas Co's market capitalization is approximately $8.5B..
What is the risk level for NFG stock?
Our analysis rates National Fuel Gas Co's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of NFG?
National Fuel Gas Co currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.0. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does National Fuel Gas Co pay a dividend?
Yes, National Fuel Gas Co pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 2.41%.
Is National Fuel Gas Co's revenue growing?
National Fuel Gas Co has reported revenue growth of 112.8%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is NFG stock profitable?
National Fuel Gas Co has a profit margin of 15.6%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the NFG DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of National Fuel Gas Co is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 28, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for NFG (National Fuel Gas Co) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.