NEWT Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
NewtekOne Inc
Financial Services • Banks - Regional
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About NEWT Stock
We analyzed NewtekOne Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran NEWT through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
NEWT Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is the failure to attract and retain sufficient low-cost deposits from SMBs, which currently stand at $1.86B. This could lead to higher funding costs and constrain the company's ability to profitably expand its $2.89B asset base, thereby undermining the core thesis of a lower cost of capital through its BHC structure.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
High
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 EPS miss ($0.43 actual vs. $0.4471 estimate), indicating slight underperformance against analyst expectations during the pivot.
- ⚠
High execution risk associated with a complex business model transformation into a tech-enabled bank holding company.
- ⚠
Absence of granular balance sheet and cash flow data in current search results, requiring reliance on general industry knowledge and qualitative assessment for key financial health metrics.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 Earnings Report (expected 2026-08-05): A continued EPS miss or significant deceleration in deposit/loan growth could lead to a re-evaluation of the pivot's success and potential stock devaluation.
- 📅
Sustained increase in benchmark interest rates (H2 2026 onwards): A scenario where funding costs rise faster than loan yields could compress NewtekOne's Net Interest Margin (NIM) below 3.0%, hindering profitability and growth.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly deposit growth falls below 10% YoY for two consecutive quarters, indicating a slowdown in the BHC pivot's core funding strategy.
- 🚪
Sell if Net Interest Margin (NIM) consistently falls below 3.0%, signaling an inability to manage funding costs effectively in the current rate environment.
- 🚪
Exit if management's reaffirmed EPS guidance for 2026/2027 is significantly revised downwards by more than 15%.
Unlock NEWT Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does NewtekOne Inc (NEWT) Do?
Market Cap
$393.06M
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Banks - Regional
Employees
591
NewtekOne, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Newtek Bank, National Association that provides various business and financial solutions under the Newtek and NewtekOne brands to the small- and medium-sized business market. The company accepts demand, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposits; and provides loans including the United States small business administration loans, commercial and industrial loans, and commercial real estate loans. It is also involved in the provision of electronic payment processing services comprising credit and debit card processing services, check approval services, processing equipment, and software, as well as cloud-based point of sale systems for a various restaurant, retail, assisted living, taxi cabs, parks, and golf course businesses. In addition, it offers wholesale brokerage insurance agency services; and payroll management, and related payment and tax reporting services to independent business owners, as well as inbound and outbound calling services. The company was formerly known as Newtek Business Services Corp. and changed its name to NewtekOne, Inc. in January 2023. NewtekOne, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
Visit NewtekOne Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If NewtekOne successfully leverages its full bank charter to grow its low-cost deposit base to over $3B and consistently expands its tech-enabled SMB loan originations by 25%+ YoY over the next 2-3 years, then it could achieve a net interest income run-rate exceeding $200M and grow its tangible book value per share to $25+, justifying a market cap re-rating to $800M-$1B (2-3x current market cap) based on a P/TBV of 1.5x-2.0x for a growth-oriented regional bank. This is bullish because the market is currently valuing it with skepticism due to the pivot, underpricing the future earnings power of a scalable, regulated BHC focused on a high-growth niche.
Is NEWT Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for NEWT
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
NEWT Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$22.50
Bull Case
$30.00
Bear Case
$10.00
Valuation Basis
Based on a 1.5x Price/Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) multiple applied to an estimated FY2026-end tangible book value per share of $15.00, reflecting continued progress in the BHC pivot.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $12.50 - $14.00, targeting dips near recent support levels, acknowledging the inherent volatility of a company undergoing a major pivot.
Exit Strategy
Take initial profits at $25.00-$28.00; consider full exit if the strategic pivot shows clear signs of failure or if the stock breaches $10.00 (key psychological support).
Portfolio Allocation
5% for aggressive risk tolerance, given the high-risk, high-reward nature of the BHC pivot and the small-cap category.
Price Targets & Strategy
Sign up free to unlock price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is NEWT Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
6.09
Forward P/E
6.13
EV/EBITDA
1.06
Price/Book
1.12
Price/Sales
1.40
Profitability
Gross Margin
93.36%
Operating Margin
-3.63%
Net Margin
24.52%
Return on Equity
17.20%
Revenue Growth
-10.18%
EPS
$2.35
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.19
Quick Ratio
0.19
Debt/Equity
5.63
Cash & Equivalents
$403.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.40
Dividend Yield
5.58%
Does NEWT Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is strengthening as NewtekOne scales its deposit base, refines its technology platform, and establishes itself as a go-to provider for SMBs. Its regulatory status and specialized tech create significant hurdles for competitors.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Aggressive entry by larger, well-capitalized fintechs or established banks into the SMB lending niche.
- •Technological obsolescence or inability to keep pace with rapid innovation in financial technology, diminishing its 'tech-enabled' advantage.
NEWT Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
NEWT Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. Limited specific data for NEWT's social media sentiment, but typically, small-cap companies undergoing pivots draw mixed retail attention and cautious optimism.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral. While analyst coverage exists, no verifiable consensus, upgrades, or downgrades are provided in the real-time intelligence. The Q1 EPS miss might temper short-term positive sentiment.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No verified Form 4 insider transactions (purchases or sales by CEO/CFO or other insiders) for the last 90 days were available in the provided results.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual put/call ratio or large block trades were indicated in the provided intelligence.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-08-05
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Not enough primary-source data to determine a reliable historical stock price reaction pattern to earnings reports.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
LOB (Live Oak Bank)
Market Share Trend
Gaining. As a tech-enabled BHC, it is actively working to carve out and expand its market share in the underserved SMB lending sector.
Valuation vs Peers
Likely trades at a discount to established, growing regional banks due to ongoing pivot-related uncertainties and smaller scale, but potentially at a premium to struggling traditional banks given its tech-enabled vision.
Competitive Advantages
- •Regulatory moat of a bank charter, providing lower cost of funds compared to non-bank lenders.
- •Proprietary technology platform designed to streamline SMB lending and back-office operations.
- •Focused strategy on the underserved small- and medium-sized business market, offering specialized financial products.
Market Intelligence
Sign up free to unlock sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis
What Could Drive NEWT Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (expected 2026-08-05): If loan originations demonstrate over 20% YoY growth and Net Interest Margin (NIM) shows sequential improvement above 3.5%, it will signal strong execution on the banking pivot.
- •Launch of enhanced SMB technology platform features (Q3 2026): Successful rollout and uptake of new digital tools for SMB clients could lead to accelerated customer acquisition and deposit growth towards $2.5B.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Achievement of $2.5 Billion in deposits (H1 2027): Reaching this milestone would significantly lower cost of funds and expand lending capacity, validating the BHC model's scalability and enabling substantial growth in net interest income.
- •Expansion of specific niche lending programs (e.g., healthcare, specialized tech SMBs) targeting new geographies (Q4 2026-Q2 2027): Successful penetration of these high-margin segments could add an estimated $50M-$75M in annual net interest income.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Securing 1% market share in the underserved SMB lending market (by 2029): If the company can consistently capture 1% of the estimated $500B+ SMB lending market, it would translate to an annual lending volume of $5B+, significantly re-rating its valuation as a dominant niche player.
- •Successful integration and monetization of AI/ML-driven lending analytics (by 2029-2030): Achieving a 10-15% reduction in loan loss provisions or a similar increase in operational efficiency through advanced tech could boost profitability and justify a higher valuation multiple.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Sign up free to see growth catalysts
What's the Bull Case for NEWT?
- ✓
Watch quarterly loan originations: Consistent YoY growth above 20% signals successful execution of lending strategy.
- ✓
Watch quarterly deposit growth: Maintaining YoY growth above 15% indicates strong funding progress and lower cost of funds.
- ✓
Monitor Net Interest Margin (NIM): Consistent sequential improvement or stabilization above 3.5% confirms effective management of interest rate risk and profitability.
Bull Case Analysis
Sign up free to see the bull case
Competing with NEWT
See how NewtekOne Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NewtekOne Inc NEWT | $393.1M | 6.7 | 6.1 | $67.0M | 24.5% | -10.2% | |
Bank of America Corp BAC | $366.2B | 0.1 | 11.6 | — | 30.2% | 99.4% | Compare → |
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $831.2B | 0.9 | 14.1 | $177.0B | 33.3% | 109.0% | Compare → |
Mastercard Inc MA | $431.8B | 0.8 | 27.7 | $28.9B | 45.9% | 16.8% | Compare → |
Visa Inc V | $605.8B | 1.6 | 27.2 | $41.4B | 51.7% | 14.4% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How NewtekOne Inc Makes Money
NewtekOne operates as a tech-enabled bank holding company primarily serving small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) across the United States. It leverages its banking charter to offer lower-cost deposit accounts, attracting capital that funds various types of loans, including SBA loans, equipment financing, and lines of credit. This entire lending and banking process is supported by its proprietary technology platform, which aims to streamline operations, reduce origination costs, and enhance the customer experience, making financial services more accessible and efficient for SMBs that are often underserved by larger banks.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for NewtekOne Inc (NEWT)?
As of June 2, 2026, NewtekOne Inc has a DVR Score of 6.7 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of NewtekOne Inc?
NewtekOne Inc's market capitalization is approximately $393.1M. The company operates in the Financial Services sector within the Banks - Regional industry.
What ticker symbol does NewtekOne Inc use?
NEWT is the ticker symbol for NewtekOne Inc. The company trades on the NGM.
What is the risk level for NEWT stock?
Our analysis rates NewtekOne Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of NEWT?
NewtekOne Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.1. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does NewtekOne Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, NewtekOne Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 5.58%.
Is NewtekOne Inc's revenue growing?
NewtekOne Inc has reported revenue growth of -10.2%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is NEWT stock profitable?
NewtekOne Inc has a profit margin of 24.5%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the NEWT DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of NewtekOne Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 2, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for NEWT (NewtekOne Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.