CDNA Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

CareDx Inc

Healthcare โ€ข Diagnostics & Research

DVR Score

1.9

out of 10

Distressed

The Bottom Line on CDNA

We analyzed CareDx Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran CDNA through our deep value framework โ€” analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.

Updated Apr 6, 2026โ€ขRun Fresh Analysis โ†’โ€ข

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CDNA Quality Rating

1.9
2.0
Growth
1.0
Profitability
7.0
Health
3.0
Capital allocation
2.0
Momentum

CDNA Stock Risk Analysis

Overall Risk

Aggressive

Financial Risk

High

Market Risk

Medium

About CareDx Inc (CDNA)

Sector

Healthcare

Industry

Diagnostics & Research

Market Cap Category

small

Market Cap

$937.77M

CDNA Deep Value Analysis

CareDx Inc continues to face significant challenges that make a 10x growth within 3-5 years highly improbable. The Q4 2025 EPS miss and negative TTM EBITDA highlight ongoing profitability struggles, reinforcing the previous assessment of a challenged financial trajectory and unsustainable path. While the company maintains a strong balance sheet with a 2.86x current ratio and low debt-to-equity of 0.09x, this strength is offset by the lack of positive free cash flow and persistent unprofitability. The absence of updates on competitive moat erosion and ongoing legal battles from the previous analysis means these concerns likely persist. There are no clear, identifiable catalysts for exponential growth, with forecasted Q1 2026 revenue representing only modest growth. Insider activity is routine, and overall sentiment indicators are scarce. The stock remains a high-risk turnaround play focused on stabilization rather than hyper-growth.

CDNA Research Sources

Research sources

No external source links for this analysis yet. Run a fresh analysis to capture SEC filings and financial news articles we used.

For educational context only. Not financial advice.

CDNA Red Flags & Warning Signs

  • โš 

    Continued EPS misses or declining revenue growth in upcoming quarters

  • โš 

    Increased competitive pressure from rivals in transplant diagnostics

  • โš 

    Adverse outcomes in existing or new legal challenges

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CDNA Financial Health Metrics

Market Cap

$937.77M

P/E Ratio

15.00

Profit Margin

17.06%

Debt-to-Equity

0.09

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Beta (Volatility)

1.15

Earnings Per Share

$1.00

CDNA Competitive Moat Analysis

Moat Rating

Narrow

Moat Trend

Eroding

Moat Sources

2 Identified

Intangible Assets/IP (Proprietary diagnostic tests, patents, clinical data)Switching Costs (Established relationships with transplant centers, integration into clinical workflows)

The moat is vulnerable to erosion from new, more accurate, or cost-effective diagnostic technologies emerging from competitors, as well as the expiration of key patents. The intense competitive landscape puts continuous pressure on pricing and innovation.

CDNA Competitive Moat Analysis

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CDNA Catalysts & Growth Drivers

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • โ€ขQ1 2026 Earnings Report on 2026-04-29

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • โ€ขPotential stabilization of revenue trends and return to positive operating cash flow (if achieved)
  • โ€ขResolution of competitive pressures or legal disputes (no specific timeline)

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • โ€ขSuccessful product innovation or market expansion within transplant diagnostics (no specific plan identified)
  • โ€ขDemonstrated ability to achieve and sustain profitability

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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CDNA Bull Case: What Could Go Right

  • โœ“

    Consistent quarter-over-quarter revenue growth acceleration.

  • โœ“

    Clear pathway and execution towards sustained positive free cash flow.

  • โœ“

    Announcements of new strategic partnerships or significant product pipeline advancements.

  • โœ“

    Positive resolution of legal disputes or competitive landscape stabilization.

Bull Case Analysis

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FAQ

What is the DVR Score for CareDx Inc (CDNA)?

As of April 6, 2026, CareDx Inc has a DVR Score of 1.9 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What is the market capitalization of CareDx Inc?

CareDx Inc's market capitalization is approximately $937.8M. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Diagnostics & Research industry.

What ticker symbol does CareDx Inc use?

CDNA is the ticker symbol for CareDx Inc. The company trades on the NGM.

What is the risk level for CDNA stock?

Our analysis rates CareDx Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

What is the P/E ratio of CDNA?

CareDx Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.0. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.

Is CareDx Inc's revenue growing?

CareDx Inc has reported revenue growth of 0.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.

Is CDNA stock profitable?

CareDx Inc has a profit margin of 17.1%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.

How often is the CDNA DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of CareDx Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 6, 2026.

Important Disclaimer โ€“ Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.