CBZ Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
CBIZ Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CBZ Stock
We analyzed CBIZ Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CBZ through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
CBZ Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The significant discrepancy between CBIZ's aggressive FY2026 EPS guidance ($3.75-$3.85) and the conservative sell-side analyst consensus ($2.65) poses a major risk. If the company fails to consistently deliver on its higher guidance in upcoming quarters, the stock, already in a downtrend, could experience further substantial declines as market skepticism intensifies.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Low
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q4 2025 earnings and revenue miss against estimates
- ⚠
Q4 2025 EPS ($0.70) significantly negative compared to prior year Q4 2024 EPS ($0.20)
- ⚠
Neuberger Berman Group LLC reduced its stake by 94.9% in Q3 2025, indicating significant institutional selling
- ⚠
Analyst consensus for FY 2026 revenue growth at a very low 2.8%
- ⚠
Stock price currently trading well below both its 50-day ($39.71) and 200-day ($49.23) moving averages, near its 52-week low ($25.44)
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Further earnings misses or negative revisions to FY26 guidance
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure or pricing erosion in key service lines
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue drops below Q4 2025 levels ($543M) for two consecutive quarters
- 🚪
Sell if the stock price definitively breaks below the 52-week low of $25.44 on high volume
- 🚪
Exit if management significantly revises FY26 EPS guidance downwards to align with or fall below analyst consensus
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Investment Thesis
CBIZ presents a stable, cash-generative investment in the professional services sector, suitable for investors prioritizing consistent performance over aggressive growth. While it lacks the catalysts for 10x growth, its manageable debt, positive free cash flow, and strategy of incremental acquisitions provide a foundation for long-term stability and modest returns, particularly if it can close the gap between its aggressive EPS guidance and analyst expectations.
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CBZ Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$39.75
Bull Case
$69.30
Bear Case
$20.00
Valuation Basis
15x forward P/E applied to $2.65 est. FY26 analyst consensus EPS = $39.75
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging below $27.00, close to the 52-week low of $25.44, for a value-oriented entry, assuming a belief in the company's long-term stability.
Exit Strategy
Take profit at $39.00-$42.00 (near 50-day moving average and previous resistance). Place a stop-loss order if the price breaks below the 52-week low of $25.44.
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for conservative investors seeking stability; Not recommended for aggressive 10x growth portfolios.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CBZ Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.51
Forward P/E
20.46
PEG Ratio
0.51
Price/Book
0.85
Price/Sales
0.63
Profitability
Net Margin
4.19%
Return on Equity
12.23%
Revenue Growth
17.90%
EPS
$1.96
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.57
Quick Ratio
1.22
Debt/Equity
0.79
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
$168.80M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.95
Does CBZ Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
CBIZ's moat is durable due to the sticky nature of professional services clients and the trust built over time. However, it operates in a fragmented market with many competitors, requiring continuous investment in talent and technology to maintain its position.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intense competition from larger national firms and niche boutiques impacting pricing power
- •Challenges in talent acquisition and retention within specialized fields
- •Difficulty effectively integrating numerous tuck-in acquisitions to realize synergies
CBZ Competitive Moat Analysis
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CBZ Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Low profile, limited direct social media activity data available)
Institutional Sentiment
Negative (Reflected by significant institutional selling from Neuberger Berman and the overall downtrend in stock price)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Form 4 filings noted on March 17 and March 19, 2026, indicating insider trading activity, but specific transaction details (buy/sell, amounts) are not disclosed in the provided data.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual options activity or put/call ratio direction provided in the research data)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late April 2026 (for Q1 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium (Q4 2025 was a miss, but company guidance is optimistic, creating uncertainty for Q1 2026 performance relative to analyst expectations)
Historical Earnings Pattern
No explicit historical earnings reaction pattern is provided. However, the Q4 2025 miss coincided with the stock entering a significant downtrend, suggesting negative reactions to underperformance.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Not specified in research, but likely regional or national professional services firms (e.g., RSM, BDO)
Market Share Trend
Stable to incrementally gaining through strategic acquisitions in a fragmented market.
Valuation vs Peers
Not provided in research, but generally expected to trade at multiples reflective of its stable, low-growth professional services sector.
Competitive Advantages
- •Established client relationships and reputation in the mid-market
- •Integrated suite of financial, benefits, and insurance services
- •Extensive network of local offices providing regional coverage
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CBZ Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement (Estimated late April 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Continued strategic tuck-in acquisitions to expand service offerings or geographic reach
- •Consistent delivery towards company's higher FY26 EPS guidance, shifting analyst sentiment
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Potential for market consolidation within the fragmented professional services industry
- •Expansion of integrated service offerings to capture higher wallet share from mid-market clients
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CBZ?
- ✓
Consistent outperformance of analyst revenue and EPS estimates
- ✓
Sustained improvement in net and operating margins
- ✓
A clear, communicated plan for accelerating organic revenue growth beyond current forecasts
Bull Case Analysis
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How CBIZ Inc Makes Money
CBIZ Inc. delivers a comprehensive suite of professional business services primarily to mid-market companies and individuals across the United States. The company makes money by charging fees for its expertise and services, which are organized into three main segments: Financial Services (accounting, tax, and advisory), Employee Benefits (health & welfare, retirement plan services), and Property & Casualty Insurance. Its business model relies on maintaining strong client relationships, delivering high-quality, integrated solutions, and strategically acquiring smaller firms to expand its market reach and service capabilities.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for CBIZ Inc (CBZ)?
As of April 5, 2026, CBIZ Inc has a DVR Score of 1.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of CBIZ Inc?
CBIZ Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.6B..
What is the risk level for CBZ stock?
Our analysis rates CBIZ Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CBZ?
CBIZ Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.5. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is CBIZ Inc's revenue growing?
CBIZ Inc has reported revenue growth of 17.9%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is CBZ stock profitable?
CBIZ Inc has a profit margin of 4.2%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the CBZ DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of CBIZ Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 5, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CBZ (CBIZ Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.