CACI Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
CACI International Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CACI Stock
We analyzed CACI International Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CACI through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
CACI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
CACI's largest risk is its dependency on U.S. federal government spending and the ability to consistently win and renew major contracts. Should there be unforeseen budget cuts or a significant shift in government priorities away from CACI's core competencies in fiscal years 2027-2028, leading to the loss or non-renewal of large programs, it could materially impact its backlog and decelerate its current 8.5% YoY revenue growth.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Recent analyst sentiment shift: Weiss Ratings cut CACI from Buy (B-) to Hold (C+) on 2026-05-19 and BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage with Neutral on 2026-05-27, indicating softening near-term outlook among some analysts.
- ⚠
TD Cowen lowered its target price from $650 to $625 on 2026-04-24, suggesting a revised, more conservative growth outlook for the company.
- ⚠
Absence of specific forward-looking contract wins or disruptive technology adoption in the provided research, limiting visibility on future exponential growth drivers.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q4 FY2025 Earnings Miss (Estimated late July/early August 2026): A miss on revenue or EPS estimates, coupled with weak forward guidance or indications of contract losses, could lead to a negative stock reaction.
- 📅
Government Budget Sequestration/Reductions (Ongoing Legislative Cycles): Potential for broad U.S. federal budget cuts, particularly in defense or intelligence, which could impact CACI's contract pipeline and renewal rates, potentially reducing revenue growth by 2-4% points annually.
- 📅
Analyst Downgrade Wave (Anytime): Further downgrades from 'Buy' to 'Hold' or 'Sell' by multiple major institutional analysts could lead to sustained selling pressure, driving the stock price below current support levels.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth falls below 4% YoY for two consecutive quarters, signaling a significant deceleration in CACI's core business.
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Sell if the stock breaks and holds below the $475 price level, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment or technical breakdown from its historical trading range.
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Exit if any major federal agency (e.g., DoD, NSA) awards a significant contract to a competitor where CACI was expected to be a strong contender, indicating competitive pressure.
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Investment Thesis
If CACI continues to leverage its deep expertise and established relationships to secure a growing share of the U.S. federal government's increasing investments in digital modernization, cybersecurity, and advanced intelligence solutions, particularly those involving AI/ML and cloud migration, then it can sustain mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and consistent EPS beats. This stability in a critical sector, coupled with ongoing capital returns (if confirmed by future filings), could lead to a steady re-rating of its P/E multiple as a reliable, defensive growth stock, though unlikely to achieve 10x returns.
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CACI Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$627.82
Bull Case
$690.00
Bear Case
$475.00
Valuation Basis
Based on analyst consensus target price as provided in research, reflecting approximately 21x current annualized EPS run rate of $29.08 ($7.27 EPS x 4 quarters).
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $500-$515 range, observing for stabilization above key moving averages, as the stock typically trades within a premium range due to its government contract stability.
Exit Strategy
Take profit at analyst consensus target of $627.82, or if fundamental weakness like sustained revenue deceleration below 5% YoY or significant margin contraction is observed. Implement a stop-loss order at $475 (approx. 8% below current price) if market sentiment turns negative.
Portfolio Allocation
3-5% for moderate risk tolerance due to stability in a defensive sector, but limited aggressive growth potential.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CACI Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.13
Forward P/E
28.29
EV/EBITDA
21.50
PEG Ratio
1.68
Price/Book
3.40
Price/Sales
1.20
Profitability
Gross Margin
32.56%
Operating Margin
9.32%
Net Margin
5.86%
Return on Equity
13.15%
Revenue Growth
9.58%
EPS
$24.24
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.47
Quick Ratio
1.26
Debt/Equity
0.75
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
$586.24M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.52
Does CACI Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
CACI's moat is durable due to the inherent stickiness and regulatory barriers within the U.S. federal contracting space. The long sales cycles, high security requirements, and need for specialized personnel make it difficult for new entrants or smaller competitors to displace incumbents like CACI.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Significant shifts in government procurement strategies or preferences for smaller, more agile contractors.
- •Increased internal government capabilities that reduce reliance on external contractors for certain IT or security functions.
- •Intense pricing competition from other large, established government contractors potentially eroding margins on renewals.
CACI Competitive Moat Analysis
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CACI Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. No specific social media sentiment data provided, but as a government contractor, it typically garners less retail social media attention than high-growth tech stocks.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to Positive. Institutional ownership is high at 86.43%. While analyst consensus is 'Moderate Buy', recent actions from BNP Paribas Exane (Neutral initiation) and Weiss Ratings (downgrade to Hold) indicate a mixed and slightly softening sentiment among some institutions.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific recent Form 4 insider buying or selling transactions reported in the provided research data.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual options flow data provided in the research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late July/early August 2026 (for Q4 FY2025, fiscal year ends June 30).
Surprise Probability
Medium. CACI reported an EPS beat of $0.18 and met revenue estimates in Q3 FY2025, suggesting a reasonable likelihood of meeting or slightly beating estimates.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Based on the Q3 FY2025 report, CACI tends to meet or slightly exceed consensus estimates for revenue and EPS, which typically results in a stable to slightly positive market reaction, rather than significant price swings.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)
Market Share Trend
Stable. The provided research does not indicate significant market share shifts for CACI.
Valuation vs Peers
Without specific valuation multiples in the provided research, a direct comparison is not possible. However, CACI, as an established government contractor, generally trades at a premium to the broader market but in line with or slightly above peers that demonstrate consistent contract wins and stable margins.
Competitive Advantages
- •Specialized government expertise and security clearances
- •Long-standing relationships with U.S. federal agencies
- •Broad portfolio of mission-critical IT and national security services
- •Ability to manage large, complex, multi-year government contracts
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CACI Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q4 FY2025 Earnings Report (Estimated late July/early August 2026): A significant beat on revenue or EPS, particularly with strong forward guidance on new contract wins or expanded scope in high-demand areas like cybersecurity, could provide an upward re-rating.
- •Major Federal Contract Award Announcements (Ongoing, specific dates not provided): Securing a large, multi-year contract in an emerging defense or intelligence technology area (e.g., AI/ML, quantum computing) could boost backlog and future revenue visibility. Quantification not available from research.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Digital Modernization Program Expansion (FY2027-FY2028): As federal agencies continue their digital transformation, CACI's established expertise could lead to expansion into new departments or significantly larger program scope, potentially increasing annual revenue contribution by 5-10% in relevant segments.
- •Geospatial Intelligence & Advanced Analytics Contracts (FY2027-FY2028): Increased government focus on data-driven intelligence offers opportunities for CACI to expand its capabilities, potentially securing contracts worth $50M-$100M+ each in these high-margin areas.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Next-Generation National Security Technologies (FY2028-FY2030): Strategic investments and acquisitions allowing CACI to become a dominant player in emerging national security technologies (e.g., integrated multi-domain operations, advanced threat detection). If successful, this could drive sustained high single-digit revenue growth and push valuations to 2-3x current levels.
- •Increased Defense/Intelligence Spending Mandates (Post-2028): Geopolitical shifts leading to sustained increases in U.S. defense and intelligence budgets could create a larger Total Addressable Market for CACI's core services, potentially enabling market share gains worth hundreds of millions in additional annual revenue.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CACI?
- ✓
Monitor quarterly revenue growth; sustained acceleration above 10% YoY could signal stronger market penetration.
- ✓
Watch for new, large-scale contract awards (e.g., $500M+ multi-year deals) to be announced, particularly in high-priority federal technology areas.
- ✓
Observe any commentary on operating margin expansion, as improved efficiency could boost profitability faster than revenue.
Bull Case Analysis
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How CACI International Inc Makes Money
CACI International Inc. is a leading provider of technology and expertise primarily to the U.S. federal government, including defense, intelligence, and civilian agencies. The company specializes in developing and integrating complex information technology (IT) and communications solutions, offering services such as cybersecurity, digital modernization, enterprise IT, and national security support. CACI earns its revenue through long-term, mission-critical contracts, working to enhance government operations, secure sensitive data, and support national defense initiatives.
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What is the DVR Score for CACI International Inc (CACI)?
As of May 31, 2026, CACI International Inc has a DVR Score of 4.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of CACI International Inc?
CACI International Inc's market capitalization is approximately $11.3B..
What is the risk level for CACI stock?
Our analysis rates CACI International Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CACI?
CACI International Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.1. This is in line with broader market averages.
Is CACI International Inc's revenue growing?
CACI International Inc has reported revenue growth of 9.6%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is CACI stock profitable?
CACI International Inc has a profit margin of 5.9%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the CACI DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of CACI International Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 31, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CACI (CACI International Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.