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BURL Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

Burlington Stores Inc

Consumer Cyclical โ€ข Apparel Retail

DVR Score

0.1

out of 10

Distressed

The Bottom Line on BURL

We analyzed Burlington Stores Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran BURL through our deep value framework โ€” analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.

Updated Mar 21, 2026โ€ขRun Fresh Analysis โ†’

๐Ÿ“ˆBURL Performance Overview3yr weekly

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Weekly adjusted close ยท Quarterly revenue & EPS ยท DVR score history

BURL Stock Risk Analysis

Overall Risk

Moderate

Financial Risk

Low

Market Risk

Medium

About Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)

Sector

Consumer Cyclical

Industry

Apparel Retail

Market Cap Category

large

Market Cap

$18.69B

BURL Deep Value Analysis

Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL) operates within the established off-price retail segment, a mature and highly competitive market. While the company is well-managed, demonstrating consistent operational efficiency, effective inventory management, and a robust strategy for incremental store expansion, its core business model fundamentally lacks the disruptive innovation, exponential scalability, or access to vast untapped markets essential for achieving 10x growth within a 3-5 year timeframe. The path to a market capitalization of nearly $200 billion from its current $19.53 billion requires a growth trajectory far exceeding what is realistic for a mature retailer. No material changes in company fundamentals, market conditions, or strategic direction have occurred since the last analysis 27 days ago to alter this assessment. Therefore, despite being a well-managed company, BURL does not align with the criteria for a high-risk, high-reward 10x investment opportunity.

Compare BURL to Similar Stocks

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BURL Red Flags & Warning Signs

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  • โš 

    Broader economic slowdown impacting consumer discretionary spending

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    Increased competitive pressure from other off-price retailers and online discounters

  • โš 

    Supply chain disruptions leading to inventory issues or increased costs

  • โš 

    Failure to meet new store opening targets or achieve target profitability on new stores

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BURL Financial Health Metrics

Market Cap

$18.69B

P/E Ratio

34.97

BURL Competitive Moat Analysis

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Moat Rating

Narrow

Moat Trend

Stable

Moat Sources

3 Identified

Cost AdvantagesEfficient ScaleBrand Power

Burlington's moat is durable due to its established expertise in opportunistic buying, efficient logistics for rapid inventory turns, and a proven track record in the off-price segment. Its strong vendor relationships provide access to desirable merchandise at advantageous prices, which is difficult for new entrants to replicate quickly. The scale of its operations also contributes to cost efficiencies.

BURL Competitive Moat Analysis

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BURL Catalysts & Growth Drivers

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • โ€ขQ1 2026 Earnings Report (Estimated early-May 2026)
  • โ€ขSpring/Summer inventory and sales trends update
  • โ€ขUpdates on supply chain efficiencies and cost management initiatives

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • โ€ขProgress on new store expansion targets and real estate strategy
  • โ€ขImpact of any new inventory sourcing partnerships
  • โ€ขOverall consumer spending trends in the discount retail segment

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • โ€ขSustained market share gains through competitive pricing and store footprint expansion
  • โ€ขAdaptation to evolving omni-channel retail landscape (minimal e-commerce focus)
  • โ€ขResilience during potential economic downturns due to off-price model attractiveness

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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BURL Bull Case: What Could Go Right

  • โœ“

    Consistent positive comparable store sales growth exceeding analyst expectations

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    Maintenance or expansion of gross and operating margins

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    Successful execution of new store expansion targets and profitability ramp-up

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    Any signs of significant deterioration in consumer spending trends affecting the off-price sector

Bull Case Analysis

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FAQ

What is the DVR Score for Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?

As of March 21, 2026, Burlington Stores Inc has a DVR Score of 0.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What is the market capitalization of Burlington Stores Inc?

Burlington Stores Inc's market capitalization is approximately $18.7B. The company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector within the Apparel Retail industry.

What ticker symbol does Burlington Stores Inc use?

BURL is the ticker symbol for Burlington Stores Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.

What is the risk level for BURL stock?

Our analysis rates Burlington Stores Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

What is the P/E ratio of BURL?

Burlington Stores Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.0. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.

How often is the BURL DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of Burlington Stores Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 21, 2026.

Important Disclaimer โ€“ Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.