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AVAL Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA

DVR Score

0.5

out of 10

Distressed

The Bottom Line on AVAL

We analyzed Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran AVAL through our deep value framework โ€” analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.

Updated Mar 16, 2026โ€ขRun Fresh Analysis โ†’

๐Ÿ“ˆAVAL Performance Overview3yr weekly

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Weekly adjusted close ยท Quarterly revenue & EPS ยท DVR score history

AVAL Stock Risk Analysis

Overall Risk

Moderate

Financial Risk

Low

Market Risk

Medium

AVAL Deep Value Analysis

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) is a mature, established financial conglomerate primarily operating in Colombia and Central America. While the prompt indicates an erroneous market cap of $17,029.19B and a 'mega-cap' category, Grupo Aval's actual market capitalization is approximately $1.7 billion USD, making it a large-cap entity in its region, but not a global mega-cap. Regardless of this discrepancy, its business model is geared towards incremental growth, dividend distribution, and traditional banking services. There is no evidence of a strategic pivot, disruptive innovation, or entry into high-growth segments that would justify a 10x appreciation within 3-5 years. Its moats protect existing market share rather than enabling aggressive expansion for exponential returns. Therefore, AVAL remains a 'dud' under these specific high-risk, high-reward investment criteria, consistent with previous analyses.

AVAL Red Flags & Warning Signs

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    Worsening macroeconomic conditions (recession, high inflation) in operating regions

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    Political instability or unfavorable regulatory changes in Colombia

  • โš 

    Significant deterioration in asset quality (e.g., increase in non-performing loans)

  • โš 

    Increased competitive pressure from local and international fintechs

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AVAL Competitive Moat Analysis

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Moat Rating

Narrow

Moat Trend

Stable

Moat Sources

4 Identified

Brand PowerSwitching CostsEfficient ScaleRegulatory Advantages

Grupo Aval's moat is durable due to its long-standing presence, strong brand equity, vast customer base with high switching costs, and the significant regulatory barriers to entry in the financial sector of its operating regions. Its diversified operations further solidify its position.

AVAL Competitive Moat Analysis

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AVAL Catalysts & Growth Drivers

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • โ€ขQ1 2026 Earnings Report (Estimated late April 2026)
  • โ€ขColombian Central Bank (BanRep) interest rate decisions
  • โ€ขEconomic inflation and GDP growth data for Colombia

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • โ€ขImproved macroeconomic outlook in Colombia and Central America
  • โ€ขSuccessful integration of digital banking initiatives to reduce costs
  • โ€ขPotential strategic M&A within the financial sector

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • โ€ขContinued economic development and financial deepening in Latin America
  • โ€ขRegional financial stability and regulatory harmonization

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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AVAL Bull Case: What Could Go Right

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    Sustained improvement in Colombian and Central American economic growth rates

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    Favorable interest rate environment leading to improved Net Interest Margins

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    Continued strong asset quality metrics and low non-performing loan ratios

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    Consistent dividend declarations and share buyback programs

Bull Case Analysis

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FAQ

What is the DVR Score for Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL)?

As of March 16, 2026, Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA has a DVR Score of 0.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What is the risk level for AVAL stock?

Our analysis rates Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

How often is the AVAL DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 16, 2026.

Important Disclaimer โ€“ Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.