ASTH Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Astrana Health Inc
Healthcare โข Medical Care Facilities
DVR Score
out of 10
The Bottom Line on ASTH
We analyzed Astrana Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ASTH through our deep value framework โ analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.
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ASTH Stock Risk Analysis
Overall Risk
Aggressive
Financial Risk
Medium
Market Risk
Medium
About Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Medical Care Facilities
Market Cap Category
small
Market Cap
$1.56B
ASTH Deep Value Analysis
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ASTH Red Flags & Warning Signs
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Worsening Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) or slower-than-expected improvement
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Adverse regulatory changes in Medicare Advantage or Medicaid
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Increased competitive intensity from larger, well-funded players
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ASTH Financial Health Metrics
Market Cap
$1.56B
P/E Ratio
65.17
ASTH Competitive Moat Analysis
PremiumMoat Rating
Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat, primarily derived from high patient and provider switching costs within its integrated care model and proprietary technology, will persist as long as Astrana consistently delivers superior patient outcomes and cost efficiencies, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its local network density and operational flow.
ASTH Competitive Moat Analysis
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ASTH Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- โขQ4 2025 Earnings Report (Estimated Late Feb/Early March 2026)
- โขAnnouncement of new payer contracts or market expansion
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- โขDemonstrated consistent improvement in Medical Loss Ratio (MLR)
- โขStrategic partnerships to enhance technology or geographic reach
- โขSuccessful integration of new clinical programs
Long-Term (18+ months)
- โขSignificant market share gains in target Medicare Advantage and Medicaid segments
- โขAchieving sustained profitability and positive free cash flow
- โขPotential industry consolidation or M&A activity
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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ASTH Bull Case: What Could Go Right
- โ
Consistent and significant improvement in Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) towards industry averages.
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Acceleration in total lives under management and new payer contract wins.
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Achievement of positive free cash flow and sustainable profitability.
Bull Case Analysis
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
As of January 20, 2026, Astrana Health Inc has a DVR Score of 7.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Astrana Health Inc?
Astrana Health Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.6B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Medical Care Facilities industry.
What ticker symbol does Astrana Health Inc use?
ASTH is the ticker symbol for Astrana Health Inc. The company trades on the NCM.
What is the risk level for ASTH stock?
Our analysis rates Astrana Health Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ASTH?
Astrana Health Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 65.2. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
How often is the ASTH DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Astrana Health Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on January 20, 2026.
Important Disclaimer โ Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.