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ASTH Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

Astrana Health Inc

Healthcare โ€ข Medical Care Facilities

DVR Score

7.4

out of 10

Solid Pick

The Bottom Line on ASTH

We analyzed Astrana Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran ASTH through our deep value framework โ€” analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.

Updated Jan 20, 2026โ€ขRun Fresh Analysis โ†’

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ASTH Stock Risk Analysis

Overall Risk

Aggressive

Financial Risk

Medium

Market Risk

Medium

About Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)

Sector

Healthcare

Industry

Medical Care Facilities

Market Cap Category

small

Market Cap

$1.56B

ASTH Deep Value Analysis

Astrana Health, post-Chapter 11 restructuring, presents a compelling high-risk, high-reward opportunity for 10x growth within 3-5 years. The company operates in the rapidly expanding value-based care market, focusing on Medicare Advantage and Medicaid, which offers a significant TAM. Its strategic vision to leverage technology and physician networks is clear and actionable. The successful deleveraging post-bankruptcy provides a cleaner financial foundation, enabling focus on operational efficiency and market expansion. While competitive pressures remain high, Astrana's integrated care model and commitment to improving MLR (Medical Loss Ratio) offer potential for moat expansion. The leadership team, having navigated a complex restructuring, demonstrates resilience. Achieving 10x growth demands flawless execution, but the strategic positioning and improved financial health post-bankruptcy significantly enhance its future prospects.

Compare ASTH to Similar Stocks

See how Astrana Health Inc stacks up against related companies in our head-to-head analysis.

ASTH Red Flags & Warning Signs

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  • โš 

    Worsening Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) or slower-than-expected improvement

  • โš 

    Adverse regulatory changes in Medicare Advantage or Medicaid

  • โš 

    Increased competitive intensity from larger, well-funded players

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ASTH Financial Health Metrics

Market Cap

$1.56B

P/E Ratio

65.17

ASTH Competitive Moat Analysis

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Moat Rating

Narrow

Moat Trend

Expanding

Moat Sources

3 Identified

Switching CostsIntangible Assets/IPEfficient Scale

The moat, primarily derived from high patient and provider switching costs within its integrated care model and proprietary technology, will persist as long as Astrana consistently delivers superior patient outcomes and cost efficiencies, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its local network density and operational flow.

ASTH Competitive Moat Analysis

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ASTH Catalysts & Growth Drivers

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • โ€ขQ4 2025 Earnings Report (Estimated Late Feb/Early March 2026)
  • โ€ขAnnouncement of new payer contracts or market expansion

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • โ€ขDemonstrated consistent improvement in Medical Loss Ratio (MLR)
  • โ€ขStrategic partnerships to enhance technology or geographic reach
  • โ€ขSuccessful integration of new clinical programs

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • โ€ขSignificant market share gains in target Medicare Advantage and Medicaid segments
  • โ€ขAchieving sustained profitability and positive free cash flow
  • โ€ขPotential industry consolidation or M&A activity

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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ASTH Bull Case: What Could Go Right

  • โœ“

    Consistent and significant improvement in Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) towards industry averages.

  • โœ“

    Acceleration in total lives under management and new payer contract wins.

  • โœ“

    Achievement of positive free cash flow and sustainable profitability.

Bull Case Analysis

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FAQ

What is the DVR Score for Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?

As of January 20, 2026, Astrana Health Inc has a DVR Score of 7.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What is the market capitalization of Astrana Health Inc?

Astrana Health Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.6B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Medical Care Facilities industry.

What ticker symbol does Astrana Health Inc use?

ASTH is the ticker symbol for Astrana Health Inc. The company trades on the NCM.

What is the risk level for ASTH stock?

Our analysis rates Astrana Health Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

What is the P/E ratio of ASTH?

Astrana Health Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 65.2. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.

How often is the ASTH DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of Astrana Health Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on January 20, 2026.

Important Disclaimer โ€“ Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.