ASTH Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Astrana Health Inc
Healthcare • Medical Care Facilities
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ASTH Stock
We analyzed Astrana Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ASTH through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ASTH Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company's impressive revenue growth in the value-based care market is not translating into proportional net income growth, showing significant margin compression (net income declined 28.93% YoY in FY25 despite 56% revenue growth). If this trend continues, the current premium valuation (P/E 64.17) becomes unsustainable, making it difficult to justify a 10x growth thesis without a clear and executed path to improving profitability and operational efficiency.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Net income declined 28.93% YoY in FY2025 despite 56% revenue growth, indicating margin compression.
- ⚠
High P/E of 64.17 requires significant future earnings acceleration to justify the valuation.
- ⚠
Proposed expansion of the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan to increase reserved shares by 1 million, which could lead to further dilution.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q1 2026 earnings miss on revenue or EPS, or weak forward guidance
- 📅
Increased share dilution from the expanded Equity Incentive Plan reducing per-share value
- 📅
Sustained margin compression in subsequent quarters without clear path to recovery
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if net margins continue to decline for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if annual revenue growth decelerates below 30% YoY in 2026 without corresponding margin improvement.
- 🚪
Exit if the stock price breaks significantly below its 200-day moving average and fails to recover within a month.
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What Does Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) Do?
Market Cap
$1.75B
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Medical Care Facilities
Employees
1,900
Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. Its physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. The company serves patients primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.
Visit Astrana Health Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Astrana Health represents a high-growth investment in the evolving value-based care market, driven by its integrated technology platform, physician networks, and expanding Medicare Advantage/Medicaid footprint. Despite current profitability challenges (margin compression), its robust revenue growth and significant TAM suggest strong potential for market leadership and subsequent margin expansion, particularly if its AI initiatives yield operational efficiencies and competitive advantages, leading to substantial long-term shareholder value.
Is ASTH Stock Undervalued?
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ASTH Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$47.40
Bull Case
$60.00
Bear Case
$28.00
Valuation Basis
Based on analyst median target of $47.40, which implies a forward P/E of 47.4x on consensus FY26 EPS of $1.00.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards $30-$32, leveraging the 200-day SMA as a potential support level if the recent rally cools. Accumulate prior to Q2 2026 earnings if Q1 results are strong.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits at $47.40 (median analyst target) and $60.00 (bull case target). Implement a stop-loss order below recent support at $30.00.
Portfolio Allocation
5-7% for aggressive risk tolerance, 3-5% for moderate risk tolerance.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ASTH Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
77.72
Forward P/E
19.04
Profitability
Gross Margin
10.73%
Operating Margin
2.47%
Net Margin
0.71%
Return on Equity
2.93%
Revenue Growth
56.39%
EPS
$0.46
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.40
Quick Ratio
1.36
Debt/Equity
1.33
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.91
Does ASTH Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is strengthening as Astrana expands its integrated care model and leverages technology. High regulatory barriers to entry in healthcare, coupled with established physician networks and patient trust, create durable advantages. The AI initiatives, if successful, could further differentiate its care delivery and efficiency.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intense competition from larger, well-funded healthcare players adopting similar value-based models and technologies.
- •Regulatory changes to Medicare Advantage or Medicaid reimbursement models that could impact profitability.
- •Failure of AI initiatives to deliver tangible improvements in care outcomes or operational efficiency.
ASTH Competitive Moat Analysis
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ASTH Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bullish; strong market outperformance and 'AI-powered' narrative suggest growing positive interest.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive; 'Strong Buy' consensus from 5 analysts and reconfirmed estimates within 30 days.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Basho Chandan (COO and CFO) surrendered 3,870 shares for tax withholding on April 14, 2026, retaining 167,765 shares plus significant future vesting, indicating strong insider conviction despite the tax-related transaction.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no unusual put/call ratio spikes or significant block trades identified in the research data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Q2 2026 (Estimated early August 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Specific historical patterns not provided in research, but high-growth, high-P/E healthcare tech stocks typically exhibit volatility around earnings, reacting strongly to guidance and margin trends.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Not explicitly named in search results; broader value-based care/healthcare tech players like OSH, Cano Health (though Cano had own challenges), Clover Health are in the competitive landscape.
Market Share Trend
Gaining market share, indicated by strong YoY revenue growth (56% in FY25) and membership expansion.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium on P/E (64.17) compared to many healthcare services providers, reflecting its high growth rate and 'AI-powered' positioning.
Competitive Advantages
- •Physician-centric, technology-enabled integrated care model
- •Focus on rapidly expanding Medicare Advantage and Medicaid value-based care segments
- •Outperforming sector average in recent performance (+31.7% vs +6.5% for healthcare tech)
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ASTH Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Release (Today, May 7, 2026, post-market)
- •Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference (May 12-14, 2026)
- •William Blair Growth Stock Conference (June 2-4, 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting (June 10, 2026) outcomes, including equity plan vote
- •Continued membership expansion and growth in Care Partners revenue
- •Strategic partnerships leveraging 'AI-powered healthcare' initiatives
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Release (Estimated early August 2026)
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achieving market leadership in the value-based care segment through scale and technological integration
- •Successful integration of AI drug development initiatives into core business or as new revenue stream
- •Sustained improvement in net margins and EPS towards FY2027 targets
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ASTH?
- ✓
Sustained improvement in net margin and free cash flow generation in Q2 2026 and beyond.
- ✓
Continued acceleration of revenue growth and membership expansion, especially in new markets.
- ✓
Positive updates on the impact and integration of 'AI-powered healthcare' initiatives.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with ASTH
See how Astrana Health Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Astrana Health Inc ASTH | $1.7B | 7.4 | 77.7 | $2.4B | 0.7% | 56.4% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $381.1B | 0.1 | 104.8 | $15.0B | 5.8% | 9.5% | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $557.1B | 1.0 | 26.5 | — | 21.8% | 7.9% | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $146.4B | 4.0 | 19.5 | $62.6B | 11.8% | 1.4% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $365.5B | 0.3 | 30.3 | $447.6B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
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How Astrana Health Inc Makes Money
Astrana Health operates as a physician-centric, technology-enabled healthcare company, primarily focused on value-based care models for Medicare Advantage and Medicaid beneficiaries. It partners with healthcare providers to manage patient populations, aiming to improve health outcomes while reducing costs. Revenue is generated largely through capitation payments (fixed monthly fees per patient) and risk pool settlements, where the company shares in savings achieved from efficient care delivery, alongside smaller streams from management fees and fee-for-service arrangements. By leveraging technology and physician networks, Astrana positions itself to capture a significant share of the shift from traditional fee-for-service to value-based care.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
As of May 7, 2026, Astrana Health Inc has a DVR Score of 7.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Astrana Health Inc?
Astrana Health Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.7B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Medical Care Facilities industry.
What ticker symbol does Astrana Health Inc use?
ASTH is the ticker symbol for Astrana Health Inc. The company trades on the NCM.
What is the risk level for ASTH stock?
Our analysis rates Astrana Health Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ASTH?
Astrana Health Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 77.7. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Astrana Health Inc's revenue growing?
Astrana Health Inc has reported revenue growth of 56.4%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ASTH stock profitable?
Astrana Health Inc has a profit margin of 0.7%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the ASTH DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Astrana Health Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 7, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ASTH (Astrana Health Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.