ASTH Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Astrana Health Inc
Healthcare • Medical Care Facilities
DVR Score
out of 10
The Bottom Line on ASTH
We analyzed Astrana Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ASTH through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.
ASTH Stock Risk Analysis
Overall Risk
Aggressive
Financial Risk
Medium
Market Risk
Medium
About Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Medical Care Facilities
Market Cap Category
small
Market Cap
$1.56B
ASTH Deep Value Analysis
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See how Astrana Health Inc stacks up against related companies in our head-to-head analysis.
ASTH Red Flags & Warning Signs
- âš
Worsening Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) or slower-than-expected improvement
- âš
Adverse regulatory changes in Medicare Advantage or Medicaid
- âš
Increased competitive intensity from larger, well-funded players
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ASTH Financial Health Metrics
Market Cap
$1.56B
P/E Ratio
65.17
ASTH Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat, primarily derived from high patient and provider switching costs within its integrated care model and proprietary technology, will persist as long as Astrana consistently delivers superior patient outcomes and cost efficiencies, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its local network density and operational flow.
ASTH Competitive Moat Analysis
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ASTH Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q4 2025 Earnings Report (Estimated Late Feb/Early March 2026)
- •Announcement of new payer contracts or market expansion
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Demonstrated consistent improvement in Medical Loss Ratio (MLR)
- •Strategic partnerships to enhance technology or geographic reach
- •Successful integration of new clinical programs
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Significant market share gains in target Medicare Advantage and Medicaid segments
- •Achieving sustained profitability and positive free cash flow
- •Potential industry consolidation or M&A activity
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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ASTH Bull Case: What Could Go Right
- ✓
Consistent and significant improvement in Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) towards industry averages.
- ✓
Acceleration in total lives under management and new payer contract wins.
- ✓
Achievement of positive free cash flow and sustainable profitability.
Bull Case Analysis
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