ASR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ASR Stock
We analyzed Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ASR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ASR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is a sustained decline in profitability (net income, EBITDA) driven by higher operational costs and flat-to-declining traffic in key segments like Mexico and Puerto Rico. This could lead to a re-rating of the stock multiple, reduced dividend payouts, and a failure to meet growth projections, even for a stable business.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low-Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Declining Adjusted EBITDA margin (64.1% in Q1 2026 vs. 70.0% in Q1 2025).
- ⚠
39.1% YoY decrease in cash & equivalents, shifting to a net debt position.
- ⚠
Mexico segment revenue declined 4.3% YoY in Q1 2026.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Global or regional economic slowdown impacting air travel demand.
- 📅
Increased operational costs (e.g., energy, labor) not offset by revenue growth.
- 📅
Regulatory changes or political instability impacting concession agreements.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Sustained decline in total passenger traffic across all regions over two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Adjusted EBITDA margin falling consistently below 60%.
- 🚪
Net income declining by double-digits for two consecutive quarters without a clear turnaround plan.
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Investment Thesis
ASUR offers a defensive investment opportunity with exposure to long-term, stable air travel demand in key Latin American markets. Its wide economic moat, derived from government concessions, ensures predictable cash flows and a history of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. While not a 10x growth stock, it provides a stable foundation for diversified portfolios, further enhanced by strategic acquisitions like Motiva, which expand its geographic footprint and scale.
Is ASR Stock Undervalued?
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ASR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$312.00
Bull Case
$360.00
Bear Case
$270.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 16x forward P/E applied to estimated FY26 EPS of $19.50, acknowledging Q1 2026 declines.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards the 52-week low of $292.35, or around the $300 analyst median price target, which may act as a support zone.
Exit Strategy
Take profit above $350; consider a stop loss if the stock breaks below $280, indicating a deterioration beyond expected stability.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for conservative investors seeking stable income and defensive exposure, less than 1% for growth-focused aggressive portfolios.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ASR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.55
Forward P/E
14.21
PEG Ratio
3.80
Price/Book
3.20
Price/Sales
5.60
Profitability
Gross Margin
98.52%
Operating Margin
45.64%
Net Margin
28.17%
Return on Equity
24.33%
Revenue Growth
18.84%
EPS
$34.96
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
4.36
Quick Ratio
4.35
Debt/Equity
0.25
Cash & Equivalents
$22.68B
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$5.35B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.11
Dividend Yield
3.39%
Does ASR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is highly durable, derived from exclusive long-term concession agreements granted by governments. These agreements create a virtually impenetrable barrier to entry for competitors in ASUR's specific airport markets, ensuring consistent revenue streams from essential infrastructure.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Changes in government policy or concession terms that could reduce profitability or prematurely terminate contracts.
- •Economic downturns or global health crises severely impacting air travel demand for extended periods.
- •Development of new competing airports by government or private entities in close proximity to existing concessions.
ASR Competitive Moat Analysis
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ASR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. As a mature infrastructure play, ASUR typically does not generate significant social media buzz or high retail investor interest focused on exponential growth.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral-to-Positive. Analyst ratings are mixed (1 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell), with the median price target below the current price. Barclays upgraded prior to the Q1 2026 results. The Q1 earnings miss on revenue and declining profitability may temper recent optimism.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 filings or insider trading activity reported in search results for the last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No unusual options activity indicating significant institutional positioning was reported in the search results.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated Q2 2026 (late July / early August)
Surprise Probability
Medium. Q1 2026 saw a revenue miss but an EPS beat, suggesting some unpredictability in top-line growth but effective cost management.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Given ASUR's stable business model, stock reactions to earnings typically hinge on passenger traffic trends, operational efficiency (margins), and any changes in guidance or capital allocation plans. Significant deviations from expectations often lead to moderate price movements.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) / Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) for direct Mexican peer comparison. Other large airport operators globally.
Market Share Trend
Stable within its concessioned airport markets due to the nature of government-granted monopolies. Growth comes from overall market expansion and successful management of existing assets.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a P/E of ~17-18x and PEG of 3.80. This is likely a fair-to-slight premium valuation for a stable airport operator with strong concessions, but not indicative of a growth stock valuation, especially with declining profitability.
Competitive Advantages
- •Exclusive, long-term government concessions for airport operations.
- •High barriers to entry for new competitors in specific airport markets.
- •Strategic geographic locations serving key tourist and business destinations.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ASR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Motiva transaction closing (expected Q2 2026), enhancing scale and diversification.
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated late July/early August 2026).
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Sustained recovery of international and domestic passenger traffic, particularly in Mexico and Puerto Rico.
- •Successful integration and performance of Motiva airports.
- •New capital expenditure projects increasing airport capacity and services.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Long-term demographic and economic growth in Mexico, Colombia, and Puerto Rico driving air travel demand.
- •Expansion of non-aeronautical revenue streams through strategic commercial partnerships.
- •Renewal of existing airport concession contracts.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ASR?
- ✓
Acceleration in overall passenger traffic growth, especially in Mexico and Puerto Rico.
- ✓
Stabilization and eventual expansion of Adjusted EBITDA margins.
- ✓
Successful integration and positive financial contribution from the Motiva acquisition.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV Makes Money
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR) operates a portfolio of strategically located airports in Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Colombia. It generates revenue by providing essential aeronautical services (like landing fees, aircraft parking, passenger charges) to airlines and travelers, and by leasing space and offering services (like retail, restaurants, car rentals, advertising) to commercial operators within its terminals. Essentially, ASUR acts as a landlord and service provider for air travel, leveraging its government-granted concessions to operate these vital transportation hubs.
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What is the DVR Score for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR)?
As of April 26, 2026, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV has a DVR Score of 2.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV's market capitalization is approximately $163.1B..
What is the risk level for ASR stock?
Our analysis rates Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ASR?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.5. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV pay a dividend?
Yes, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 3.39%.
Is Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV's revenue growing?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV has reported revenue growth of 18.8%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ASR stock profitable?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV has a profit margin of 28.2%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the ASR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 26, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ASR (Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.