ASR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ASR Stock
We analyzed Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ASR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ASR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is the continued decline in passenger traffic, particularly the -10.0% YoY international traffic decline in Mexico (May 2026) and -3.7% in Puerto Rico. If these trends persist into Q3 and Q4 2026, it could lead to further erosion of profitability and challenge ASUR's ability to maintain dividend growth, impacting investor sentiment for this income-focused asset.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Overall passenger traffic declined 1.6% YoY in May 2026, with significant drops in core markets of Mexico (-4.2%) and Puerto Rico (-3.7%).
- ⚠
Q1 2026 reported a notable decline in Net Income (-19.6% YoY) and EBITDA (-6.5% YoY), indicating profitability pressures.
- ⚠
The business model is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical events affecting international travel, which currently faces headwinds in its key markets.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Continued deterioration of Mexico's international passenger traffic (Q3/Q4 2026): A sustained decline could lead to further revenue pressure on ASUR's largest market.
- 📅
Increase in concession fees or changes in regulatory terms by Mexican or Puerto Rican governments (FY2027 onward): Could impact profitability and cash flow, potentially reducing EBITDA by 5-10%.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if total quarterly passenger traffic consistently declines by more than 3% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if Q2 2026 or subsequent earnings reports show Net Income declining by more than 15% YoY for two consecutive quarters, signaling deepening profitability issues.
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Investment Thesis
If ASUR can reverse the current international traffic decline in Mexico and Puerto Rico to positive growth, leveraging its dominant concession positions and seeing a sustained recovery in overall travel demand, then the company's stable FCF generation and healthy balance sheet could support a re-rating closer to the sector average P/E of 15x, driving modest capital appreciation while providing consistent dividend income. This is bullish because the current P/E of 13.1x prices in some of the current traffic headwinds.
Is ASR Stock Undervalued?
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ASR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$318.50
Bull Case
$340.00
Bear Case
$250.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 15.0x sector average P/E applied to estimated trailing FY26 EPS of $21.23 (derived from current price $278.13 / 13.1x P/E) = $318.45. Upside assumes traffic stabilization and margin recovery. Downside implies continued traffic declines and margin pressure.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards $260-$270, which could represent a short-term support zone, or waiting for signs of passenger traffic stabilization in Mexico and Puerto Rico.
Exit Strategy
Take profit at $330-$340 if traffic shows sustained recovery and margins improve. Set a stop-loss at $240 if overall passenger traffic continues to materially decline YoY or if Q2 2026 earnings show further profitability erosion.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for moderate risk tolerance, primarily for income and defensive stability rather than growth.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ASR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.55
Forward P/E
17.90
EV/EBITDA
18.20
PEG Ratio
0.44
Price/Book
3.20
Price/Sales
5.60
Profitability
Gross Margin
98.52%
Operating Margin
44.45%
Net Margin
26.23%
Return on Equity
25.44%
Revenue Growth
14.14%
EPS
$32.62
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.03
Quick Ratio
3.01
Debt/Equity
0.90
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.11
Dividend Yield
3.39%
Does ASR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
2 Identified
ASUR's moat is exceptionally durable due to the nature of its business: operating essential infrastructure under long-term, government-granted concessions. These agreements effectively grant monopolies in specific regions, making competition almost impossible to establish. The high capital expenditure required for airport construction and operation further reinforces this barrier.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Government intervention or changes to concession terms (e.g., higher fees, early termination) could impact profitability and control.
- •Geopolitical events or pandemics causing sustained disruptions to global air travel, despite the operational moat.
ASR Competitive Moat Analysis
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ASR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. While a stable infrastructure play, it doesn't generate significant retail interest for exponential growth, and recent traffic declines temper enthusiasm.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral. Grupo ADO's purchase of 331,945 ADSs for $102.3 million indicates conviction from a major shareholder, but no widespread analyst upgrades or downgrades are noted in the provided research.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Grupo ADO (a major shareholder) bought 331,945 ADSs for $102.3 million as noted in an Amendment No. 9 to Schedule 13D. This represents a significant vote of confidence from a strategic investor.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific data provided in the research suggests unusual institutional options positioning.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late July/early August 2026 (for Q2 FY2026)
Surprise Probability
Low. Given the declining passenger traffic trends, expectations are likely tempered, reducing the probability of a significant positive surprise.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, airport operators tend to react to passenger traffic trends and guidance. Positive traffic surprises or better-than-expected non-aeronautical revenue can lead to modest rallies, while traffic declines or margin compression can lead to sell-offs.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
ASR operates in specific regional markets. In Mexico, its closest peers are Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB), which also operate under concession models.
Market Share Trend
Stable in its concession regions due to exclusivity, but overall traffic is declining in key markets, suggesting a stable share of a shrinking pie in some areas, while growing in Colombia.
Valuation vs Peers
ASUR trades at a P/E of 13.1x, slightly below the sector P/E of 15.0x. However, its Price/Book of 3.2x is significantly higher than the sector P/B of 1.3x, suggesting its assets are valued at a premium. PEG of 0.44 is low, potentially signaling undervaluation if growth improves.
Competitive Advantages
- •Exclusive, long-term government concession agreements (high barrier to entry)
- •Critical infrastructure asset with high switching costs for airlines and passengers
- •Diversified geographic presence across Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Colombia
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ASR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 FY2026 earnings release (estimated late July/early August 2026): Key focus on passenger traffic trends in Mexico and Puerto Rico, non-aeronautical revenue growth, and any updated guidance for full-year traffic.
- •July 2026 passenger traffic report (estimated early August 2026): A reversal of negative YoY trends in Mexico and Puerto Rico would signal potential recovery, especially in international segments.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Sustained recovery of international travel demand into Mexico and Puerto Rico (H2 2026 - H1 2027): A return to pre-pandemic international passenger levels would significantly boost aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues.
- •Expansion of duty-free and F&B concessions within existing terminals (throughout 2027): Focused initiatives to increase non-aeronautical revenue per passenger, targeting a 5-10% increase.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Further infrastructure development or modernization projects in key growth markets like Colombia (FY2028-2029): If successful, these could add 10-15% to total passenger capacity and generate new revenue streams.
- •Strategic acquisitions of additional airport concessions in Latin America (FY2028+): Expansion into new, high-growth regional markets could diversify revenue and enhance overall scale, potentially adding 15-20% to current passenger volume.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ASR?
- ✓
Watch quarterly total passenger traffic reports: A sustained return to positive YoY growth (above 0%) in Mexico and Puerto Rico would be a strong positive signal.
- ✓
Monitor non-aeronautical revenue per passenger: An increase (e.g., >3% YoY) would indicate successful monetization of terminal space and services, improving margins.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV Makes Money
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR) operates nine airports in southeastern Mexico, one in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and six in Colombia. It generates revenue primarily from aeronautical services (landing fees, aircraft parking, passenger charges, airport security) and non-aeronautical services (retail, food and beverage concessions, advertising, car rentals, VIP lounges, ground transportation, and other services). The company holds long-term government concessions that grant it exclusive rights to operate these airports, essentially providing it with regional monopolies and stable cash flows tied to air travel volume and passenger spending.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR)?
As of June 10, 2026, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV has a DVR Score of 3.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV's market capitalization is approximately $142.4B..
What is the risk level for ASR stock?
Our analysis rates Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ASR?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.6. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV pay a dividend?
Yes, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 3.39%.
Is Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV's revenue growing?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV has reported revenue growth of 14.1%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ASR stock profitable?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV has a profit margin of 26.2%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the ASR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 10, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ASR (Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.