AMTM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

Amentum Holdings Inc

Industrials • Specialty Business Services

DVR Score

2.2

out of 10

Risk Trap

The Bottom Line on AMTM

We analyzed Amentum Holdings Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran AMTM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.

Updated Mar 20, 2026•Run Fresh Analysis →

AMTM Stock Risk Analysis

Overall Risk

Moderate

Financial Risk

Medium

Market Risk

Medium

About Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM)

Sector

Industrials

Industry

Specialty Business Services

Market Cap Category

mid

Market Cap

$7.07B

AMTM Deep Value Analysis

Amentum Holdings remains a robust government services provider, characterized by stable operations within a mature, low-margin industry. While its significant market presence, deep government relationships, and strategic M&A offer consistent, incremental growth and a degree of recession resilience, the core business model fundamentally lacks the disruptive innovation or exponential market expansion typically associated with 10x growth potential within a 3-5 year horizon. Existing debt from past acquisitions continues to be a factor, limiting aggressive capital allocation towards truly high-risk, high-reward ventures. No material changes since the last analysis warrant a significant score adjustment, reinforcing its positioning as a stable, but not explosive, investment for our specific thesis.

Compare AMTM to Similar Stocks

See how Amentum Holdings Inc stacks up against related companies in our head-to-head analysis.

AMTM Red Flags & Warning Signs

  • âš 

    Government budget cuts or sequestration impacting contract renewals

  • âš 

    Loss of key multi-billion dollar contracts to competitors

  • âš 

    Unsuccessful integration of acquired businesses leading to margin erosion

  • âš 

    Adverse changes in government procurement regulations

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AMTM Financial Health Metrics

Market Cap

$7.07B

P/E Ratio

107.41

AMTM Competitive Moat Analysis

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Moat Rating

Narrow

Moat Trend

Stable

Moat Sources

3 Identified

Switching CostsIntangible Assets (specialized expertise, security clearances, regulatory compliance)Efficient Scale

The moat is durable due to the high barriers to entry in government contracting, the specialized nature of services, the high cost and complexity for agencies to switch providers, and the long sales cycles that favor incumbents with established trust and clearances.

AMTM Competitive Moat Analysis

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AMTM Catalysts & Growth Drivers

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • •Q1 2026 Earnings Report (estimated late April/early May 2026)
  • •Major government contract awards announcements
  • •Successful integration updates for recent acquisitions

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • •Expansion into new government agencies or specialized service areas (e.g., cyber, digital modernization)
  • •Further strategic acquisitions consolidating market share
  • •Increased U.S. defense or national security budget allocations

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • •Sustained government demand for outsourced critical services and technology integration
  • •Leadership in specific niche government tech modernization initiatives
  • •Potential for significant deleveraging and improved cash flow from operations

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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AMTM Bull Case: What Could Go Right

  • ✓

    Consistent growth in contract backlog and new contract wins

  • ✓

    Improvement in operating margins and free cash flow conversion

  • ✓

    Progress in debt reduction and successful integration of future acquisitions

Bull Case Analysis

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Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.

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