AMPL Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Amplitude Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About AMPL Stock
We analyzed Amplitude Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran AMPL through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
AMPL Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Despite being debt-free and having positive free cash flow, Amplitude remains deeply unprofitable at the net income level, with declining operating margins and subpar net revenue retention of 102%. If they fail to significantly improve customer retention and achieve GAAP profitability within the next 12-18 months, market sentiment could further deteriorate, leading to continued stock decline and potential long-term stagnation.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Persistent net unprofitability with TTM earnings of -$88.54M.
- ⚠
Subpar net revenue retention (102%) indicating potential churn or limited customer expansion.
- ⚠
Operating margin declining and remaining deeply negative at -28%.
- ⚠
President Thomas Hansen stepping down, introducing leadership uncertainty.
- ⚠
Stock down 31% over the past 6 months, reflecting negative market sentiment.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Disappointing Q1 2026 earnings or weaker-than-expected guidance
- 📅
Continued decline in operating margins or lack of progress towards profitability
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth falls below 10% YoY.
- 🚪
Sell if net revenue retention drops below 100% for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if operating margins continue to deteriorate or cash burn intensifies without a clear funding plan.
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Investment Thesis
Amplitude represents a high-risk, high-reward turnaround play currently trading significantly below fair value, with a strong balance sheet (zero debt), positive free cash flow, and management's commitment to shareholder returns via a substantial share buyback. If the company can successfully navigate its path to profitability, improve its net revenue retention, and capture greater market share in the growing product analytics space, its current low valuation could offer substantial upside.
Is AMPL Stock Undervalued?
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AMPL Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$13.00
Bull Case
$20.00
Bear Case
$4.00
Valuation Basis
Based on analyst median price target of $13.00, implying a re-rating to ~3.7x FY26 P/S ($900M MC / $343.21M TTM Rev * 1.15 growth)
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging if the stock pulls back towards $5.50-$6.00, looking for stabilization after its recent 31% decline over 6 months.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits at $13.00 (analyst median target), re-evaluate at $20.00 for further upside, with a stop-loss order if price drops below $5.00.
Portfolio Allocation
3% for aggressive risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is AMPL Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-10.10
Forward P/E
125.44
PEG Ratio
3.27
Price/Book
5.49
Price/Sales
4.70
Profitability
Gross Margin
73.99%
Net Margin
-30.43%
Return on Equity
-33.08%
EPS
$-0.75
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.67
Quick Ratio
1.67
Cash & Equivalents
$294.75M
Cash Flow
EBITDA
-$102.04M
Does AMPL Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Eroding/Stable
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat's durability is questionable given the low net revenue retention rate of 102%, which indicates customers may not find switching costs prohibitive or are not expanding their usage significantly. Competition in product analytics is intense, and without clearer differentiation or stronger customer lock-in, the moat could easily erode further.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intense competition from established players and new entrants in product analytics.
- •Customers finding more cost-effective or feature-rich alternative solutions.
- •Failure to continuously innovate and expand platform capabilities.
AMPL Competitive Moat Analysis
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AMPL Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (No specific data, but mixed signals from price action vs analyst views)
Institutional Sentiment
Mixed (Moderate Buy consensus, but recent target cuts from KeyCorp and UBS alongside a Morgan Stanley upgrade).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CTO Curtis Liu sold 33,201 shares on March 6, 2026, for $265,840 (under 10b5-1 plan). Directors Tzuo Tien and Erica Schultz were granted RSUs on April 7, 2026.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual activity provided).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-07 (Expected for Q1 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Met Q4 2025 EPS consensus, suggesting some predictability, but no specific stock reaction pattern provided.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
N/A (No specific competitors listed in provided data)
Market Share Trend
Stable (Subpar NRR suggests not rapidly gaining market share, but no explicit data on market share changes).
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a discount to typical SaaS peers with a P/S of 2.66, potentially indicating undervaluation or concerns about profitability/growth.
Competitive Advantages
- •Product analytics specialization (implied by business model)
- •Debt-free balance sheet provides financial flexibility
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive AMPL Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report on May 7, 2026
- •Aggressive execution of $100M share repurchase program
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Significant improvement in Net Revenue Retention above 110%
- •Strategic partnerships expanding market reach and adoption
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achievement of sustained GAAP profitability and positive operating income
- •Establishment as a market leader in a growing product analytics segment
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for AMPL?
- ✓
Acceleration in year-over-year revenue growth beyond 20%.
- ✓
Consistent quarterly improvement in net revenue retention.
- ✓
Positive operating income and sustained GAAP profitability.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Amplitude Inc Makes Money
Amplitude Inc. provides a digital optimization system, primarily a product analytics platform, for businesses. This platform allows companies to analyze how users interact with their digital products (websites, mobile apps) in real-time. By understanding user behavior, businesses can make data-driven decisions to optimize product features, enhance user experience, and ultimately drive growth and engagement. Its customers are typically product, marketing, and engineering teams within various organizations.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Amplitude Inc (AMPL)?
As of April 8, 2026, Amplitude Inc has a DVR Score of 4.8 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Amplitude Inc?
Amplitude Inc's market capitalization is approximately $912.0M..
What is the risk level for AMPL stock?
Our analysis rates Amplitude Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of AMPL?
Amplitude Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -10.1. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Amplitude Inc's revenue growing?
Amplitude Inc has reported revenue growth of 0.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is AMPL stock profitable?
Amplitude Inc has a profit margin of -30.4%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the AMPL DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Amplitude Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 8, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for AMPL (Amplitude Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.