AM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Antero Midstream Corp
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About AM Stock
We analyzed Antero Midstream Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran AM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
AM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk for AM, beyond general market and commodity price fluctuations, is a sustained decline in production volumes from its primary customer, Antero Resources. As a fee-based midstream, its revenue stability relies heavily on throughput, which would be impacted if Antero Resources significantly cuts production or if new drilling is curtailed due to low commodity prices or regulatory changes, directly affecting AM's future cash flows and ability to maintain distributions.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Mature business model with limited scalability for exponential growth.
- ⚠
YoY EPS decline in Q4 2025 despite revenue beat (GAAP $0.11 vs. $0.23 YoY).
- ⚠
Officer Sheri Pearce sold 14,000 shares in March 2026.
- ⚠
Analyst consensus rating of 'Hold' with a price target close to current levels, signaling limited perceived upside.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Significant decline in natural gas/NGL prices impacting Antero Resources' production
- 📅
Increased interest rates impacting debt servicing costs
- 📅
Regulatory hurdles for pipeline expansion
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly distribution is significantly cut or suspended.
- 🚪
Sell if Antero Resources announces material, long-term production curtailments.
- 🚪
Exit if long-term debt-to-EBITDA ratio significantly increases (e.g., above 4.0, though current ratio is unavailable).
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Investment Thesis
Antero Midstream is a well-managed midstream MLP offering stable, fee-based cash flows and consistent shareholder distributions. Its primary value proposition lies in its predictable income generation from its existing infrastructure, not exponential capital appreciation. It's suitable for investors seeking stable yield rather than high-risk, high-reward 10x growth potential.
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AM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$23.50
Bull Case
$25.00
Bear Case
$19.00
Valuation Basis
25x forward P/E applied to consensus FY2026 EPS of $0.95 = $23.75; adjusted to $23.50 for conservative approach.
Entry Strategy
For income investors, dollar-cost average near current levels ($22-$23). For high-growth investors, avoid this stock.
Exit Strategy
Consider profit-taking for income at $25.00. Set a stop-loss at $19.00 if distributions are cut or if upstream production volumes significantly decline.
Portfolio Allocation
0% for high-growth portfolio; up to 3% for a conservative, income-focused portfolio.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is AM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.49
Forward P/E
20.60
PEG Ratio
2.39
Price/Book
4.10
Price/Sales
7.20
Profitability
Net Margin
34.77%
Return on Equity
20.12%
Revenue Growth
3.30%
EPS
$0.28
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.41
Quick Ratio
3.41
Debt/Equity
1.63
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.75
Dividend Yield
3.90%
Does AM Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is durable due to the high barriers to entry in midstream infrastructure and the long-term nature of its contracts. However, its long-term durability is tied to the broader energy transition and the sustained demand for natural gas.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Long-term decline in fossil fuel demand affecting new drilling and throughput.
- •Increased environmental regulations and permitting challenges.
- •Dependence on Antero Resources for a significant portion of its volumes.
AM Competitive Moat Analysis
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AM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Predominantly followed by dividend/income investors, not high-growth retail interest)
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral (Zacks 'Hold' rating; UBS raised PT to $24 from $22, but overall consensus PT is $22.50).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Officer Sheri Pearce sold 14,000 shares ($318,640) on March 7, 2026. Executive Brendan E. Krueger was granted 97,953 RSUs on March 6-7, 2026, with 56,546 shares withheld for taxes.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual activity reported in the intelligence).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-29
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Q4 2025 saw a revenue beat but an EPS miss (based on initial report, adjusted EPS beat). Historical patterns are not explicitly detailed, but as a mature MLP, earnings surprises typically lead to modest stock reactions unless guidance or distributions are significantly altered.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
No direct midstream peer data provided in intelligence, but Permian Resources (upstream focus) mentioned as a general energy competitor.
Market Share Trend
Stable (Operating within its defined gathering and processing footprint, tied to Antero Resources' production).
Valuation vs Peers
Data unavailable to compare specific valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) against peers.
Competitive Advantages
- •Integrated infrastructure network serving a key producer (Antero Resources).
- •Fee-based contract structure providing revenue stability.
- •Efficient scale within its operating regions.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive AM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings (Expected April 29, 2026)
- •Updated FY2026/FY2027 guidance
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Incremental production volume increases from Antero Resources
- •Potential strategic divestitures or bolt-on acquisitions (e.g., as seen with Infinity Natural Resources acquisition of AM assets)
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Optimization of existing infrastructure and cost efficiencies
- •Potential for energy transition investments, if any (no current indication of this as a driver)
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for AM?
- ✓
Any significant change in Antero Midstream's distribution policy or guidance.
- ✓
Announcements from Antero Resources regarding future production plans or significant drilling activity.
- ✓
Trends in natural gas and NGL prices for macro-level impact on upstream activity.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Antero Midstream Corp Makes Money
Antero Midstream operates an integrated network of pipelines, compressor stations, and processing plants in the Appalachian Basin, primarily for its affiliated upstream company, Antero Resources. It generates revenue by charging fees for gathering, compressing, processing, and transporting natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil. This fee-based model provides stable cash flow with limited direct exposure to commodity price fluctuations, making it an attractive investment for income-seeking shareholders.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Antero Midstream Corp (AM)?
As of April 9, 2026, Antero Midstream Corp has a DVR Score of 1.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Antero Midstream Corp?
Antero Midstream Corp's market capitalization is approximately $10.8B..
What is the risk level for AM stock?
Our analysis rates Antero Midstream Corp's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of AM?
Antero Midstream Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.5. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Antero Midstream Corp pay a dividend?
Yes, Antero Midstream Corp pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 3.90%.
Is Antero Midstream Corp's revenue growing?
Antero Midstream Corp has reported revenue growth of 3.3%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is AM stock profitable?
Antero Midstream Corp has a profit margin of 34.8%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the AM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Antero Midstream Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 9, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for AM (Antero Midstream Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.