AGL Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
agilon health inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About AGL Stock
We analyzed agilon health inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran AGL through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
AGL Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company continues to struggle with profitability and cash burn despite growing revenue in a strategic market. If the new CEO fails to implement a successful turnaround strategy leading to significant margin improvement and free cash flow generation, the company may need further dilutive capital raises, or its low valuation could persist or decline further.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
High
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
1-for-25 reverse stock split (effective March 30, 2026) signaling past share price distress.
- ⚠
Negative net margin (-6.60%) and extremely negative ROE (-120.82%) in Q4 2025, indicating significant unprofitability.
- ⚠
Missed EPS estimates in Q4 2025 despite revenue beat.
- ⚠
Extremely low P/S ratio (~0.077x) suggesting deep market skepticism about future profitability or solvency.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Disappointing Q1 2026 earnings with continued widening losses or negative outlook
- 📅
Failure of new CEO's strategy to improve financial performance
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if Q1 2026 earnings show further deterioration in net margin or a significant revenue miss.
- 🚪
Sell if management provides negative guidance on the path to profitability or indicates further capital raises are imminent without corresponding growth catalysts.
- 🚪
Exit if the stock fails to hold above $20 post-earnings, signaling continued downward pressure.
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Investment Thesis
agilon health presents a high-risk, high-reward turnaround opportunity within the growing value-based care market, specifically targeting Medicare Advantage patients. The exceptionally low valuation (P/S ~0.077x) indicates significant skepticism, but if the new CEO can successfully execute a strategy to achieve profitability and positive free cash flow, the company's valuation multiple could re-rate substantially, offering multi-bagger returns. The investment relies on a successful operational pivot and a market re-evaluation based on improved financial health rather than pure top-line growth alone.
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AGL Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$84.25
Bull Case
$150.00
Bear Case
$15.00
Valuation Basis
0.25x P/S multiple applied to estimated FY26 revenue of $5.8B = $1.45B Market Cap. Divided by 17.21M estimated shares = $84.25.
Entry Strategy
Cautious dollar-cost averaging between $20-$25 (near analyst low target and potential support) post Q1 2026 earnings, assuming positive commentary on profitability path.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $80-$100 if turnaround indicators are strong; re-evaluate above $150. Stop loss at $15 if operational improvements don't materialize or cash burn accelerates.
Portfolio Allocation
2% for aggressive risk tolerance given high uncertainty and turnaround status.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is AGL Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-0.80
Price/Book
1.25
Price/Sales
0.09
Profitability
Gross Margin
-0.76%
Operating Margin
-7.81%
Net Margin
-6.60%
Return on Equity
-116.65%
Revenue Growth
-2.11%
EPS
$-24.31
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.02
Quick Ratio
0.89
Debt/Equity
0.28
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
-$119.00M
EBITDA
-$296.20M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.28
Does AGL Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
agilon health benefits from integrating deeply with physician practices, creating switching costs. Its data and operational protocols for value-based care also provide some proprietary advantage. However, the value-based care market is competitive, and its moat is not impenetrable as other players can replicate similar models or acquire physician networks.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •New entrants or large healthcare incumbents (e.g., insurers acquiring provider networks) aggressively expanding into value-based care.
- •Physician dissatisfaction leading to practices switching away from the platform, eroding network effects.
AGL Competitive Moat Analysis
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AGL Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral with mixed outlook. Retail investors are likely cautious following the reverse split and past performance, but may be hopeful for a turnaround with the new CEO.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral, with an average 'Hold' rating and a wide price target range ($20.73-$40.23), reflecting uncertainty among analysts. No specific upgrades/downgrades specified in research.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 filings detailed in the last 90 days. No CEO/CFO activity flagged.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual put/call ratio or large block trades were detailed in the research to indicate strong institutional directional bets.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-06
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Q4 2025 earnings saw a revenue beat but EPS miss. The market's reaction to Q1 2026 will heavily depend on the new CEO's commentary and clarity on a path to profitability.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
CLOV (Clover Health Investments Corp.) or OSH (Oak Street Health, now part of CVS)
Market Share Trend
Not detailed in research. Assumed to be stable or slowly gaining within its niche, but overall market share data is missing.
Valuation vs Peers
AGL trades at an exceptionally low P/S ratio compared to most established healthcare services peers, reflecting its deep unprofitability and turnaround status. Even growth-oriented but unprofitable peers often trade at higher multiples, albeit with similar risks.
Competitive Advantages
- •Value-based care model aligned with industry shift towards quality and cost efficiency
- •Strong relationships and network with primary care physicians for Medicare Advantage
- •Scalable technology platform for data analysis and care coordination
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive AGL Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report (May 6, 2026 after market close)
- •New CEO Tim O'Rourke's initial strategic roadmap and execution updates
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Demonstrated progress toward positive operating cash flow and reduced net losses
- •Expansion of partnerships with new primary care physician groups or health plans
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achieving consistent GAAP profitability and positive free cash flow, becoming a leader in value-based care
- •Continued growth in Medicare Advantage enrollment driving capitated revenue
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for AGL?
- ✓
Clear guidance and measurable progress toward positive free cash flow and GAAP profitability.
- ✓
Acceleration in organic revenue growth while improving gross and operating margins.
- ✓
Positive commentary from management regarding physician retention and new practice onboarding.
Bull Case Analysis
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How agilon health inc Makes Money
agilon health partners with local primary care physicians (PCPs) to help them transition from a traditional fee-for-service payment model to a value-based care model, primarily for their senior patients (Medicare Advantage). Instead of billing for each service, agilon health's model involves receiving a fixed payment per patient (capitation) from health plans. In return, agilon provides PCPs with technology, data analytics, and operational support to better manage patient care, improve health outcomes, and reduce overall healthcare costs. The company's revenue is tied to the capitated payments and its ability to manage patient costs efficiently, sharing the financial risk and rewards with the partnered physicians.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for agilon health inc (AGL)?
As of May 5, 2026, agilon health inc has a DVR Score of 4.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of agilon health inc?
agilon health inc's market capitalization is approximately $448.8M..
What is the risk level for AGL stock?
Our analysis rates agilon health inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of AGL?
agilon health inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -0.8. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is agilon health inc's revenue growing?
agilon health inc has reported revenue growth of -2.1%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is AGL stock profitable?
agilon health inc has a profit margin of -6.6%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the AGL DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of agilon health inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 5, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for AGL (agilon health inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.