ADSK Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

Autodesk Inc

DVR Score

4.7

out of 10

Proceed with Caution

The Bottom Line on ADSK

We analyzed Autodesk Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran ADSK through our deep value framework โ€” analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Here's what we found.

Updated Apr 8, 2026โ€ขRun Fresh Analysis โ†’โ€ข

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ADSK Quality Rating

4.7
7.0
Growth
9.5
Profitability
8.5
Health
9.0
Capital allocation
8.0
Momentum

ADSK Stock Risk Analysis

Overall Risk

Moderate

Financial Risk

Low

Market Risk

Medium

ADSK Deep Value Analysis

Autodesk remains a robust market leader with strong competitive advantages, evidenced by consistent revenue and EPS beats, accelerating free cash flow growth (+54% YoY), and a proactive strategic pivot into AI and cloud. The recent 7% workforce reduction to fund AI/cloud investments and a new $5B share repurchase program highlight strong financial health and adaptable leadership. These factors bolster its position as a high-quality compounder. However, given its current $49.58B market capitalization and maturity, achieving a 10x return within the next 3-5 years is highly improbable, as the company has largely completed its major business model pivot to subscription and is growing organically within established large markets rather than creating new, disruptive ones. The increased score reflects improved operational execution and strategic positioning within its established growth trajectory.

ADSK Research Sources

Research sources

No external source links for this analysis yet. Run a fresh analysis to capture SEC filings and financial news articles we used.

For educational context only. Not financial advice.

ADSK Red Flags & Warning Signs

  • โš 

    Macroeconomic slowdown impacting construction and manufacturing industries

  • โš 

    Aggressive competitive moves by rivals like Bentley Systems or Procore

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ADSK Financial Health Metrics

0

P/E Ratio

64.44

Profit Margin

0.00%

Debt-to-Equity

0.00

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Beta (Volatility)

0.00

Earnings Per Share

$4.67

ADSK Competitive Moat Analysis

Moat Rating

Wide

Moat Trend

Expanding

Moat Sources

4 Identified

Switching CostsIntangible Assets/IPBrand PowerNetwork Effects

Autodesk's moat is highly durable due to its deep integration into professional workflows, the high cost and time involved for users to switch to alternative software, and its continuous innovation in AI and cloud. Its extensive patent portfolio and status as an industry standard further solidify its competitive position.

ADSK Competitive Moat Analysis

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ADSK Catalysts & Growth Drivers

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • โ€ขQ1 FY2027 Earnings Report (Estimated late May 2026)
  • โ€ขUpdates on agentic AI integration across core products

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • โ€ขSuccessful unification and adoption of Forma in enterprise renewals
  • โ€ขExpansion of Construction Cloud and Fusion 360 market penetration
  • โ€ขStrategic partnerships to enhance AI/cloud offerings

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • โ€ขFull integration of AI across all design and make workflows driving productivity gains
  • โ€ขContinued market share gains in AECO and manufacturing sectors globally
  • โ€ขBroad adoption of generative design and digital twin technologies

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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ADSK Bull Case: What Could Go Right

  • โœ“

    Sustained 15%+ YoY revenue growth through successful AI and cloud monetization.

  • โœ“

    Continued expansion of free cash flow margins and strategic capital deployment.

  • โœ“

    Successful penetration into new adjacent markets or verticals through acquisitions or organic expansion.

Bull Case Analysis

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FAQ

What is the DVR Score for Autodesk Inc (ADSK)?

As of April 8, 2026, Autodesk Inc has a DVR Score of 4.7 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What is the risk level for ADSK stock?

Our analysis rates Autodesk Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

What is the P/E ratio of ADSK?

Autodesk Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 64.4. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.

Is Autodesk Inc's revenue growing?

Autodesk Inc has reported revenue growth of 0.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.

Is ADSK stock profitable?

Autodesk Inc has a profit margin of 0.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.

How often is the ADSK DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of Autodesk Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 8, 2026.

Important Disclaimer โ€“ Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor.