ADSK Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Autodesk Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ADSK Stock
We analyzed Autodesk Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ADSK through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ADSK Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
A prolonged global economic downturn, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors, could significantly dampen demand for Autodesk's core subscription services and impact its ability to achieve its ambitious growth targets, potentially leading to a re-rating of its valuation multiples. While AI investments are strategic, a failure to effectively monetize these or integrate them seamlessly could lead to increased costs without proportional revenue gains.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
No major operational red flags (e.g., accounting irregularities, executive misconduct) were identified in recent reports.
- ⚠
Insider activity (COO withholding shares for taxes) is typical and does not signal a red flag.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Macroeconomic slowdown impacting construction and manufacturing industries
- 📅
Aggressive competitive moves by rivals like Bentley Systems or Procore
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if year-over-year revenue growth decelerates to single digits for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if free cash flow margins show sustained contraction below 25%.
- 🚪
Exit if the stock price breaks below $200 with significant volume, indicating a loss of key support.
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Investment Thesis
Autodesk is a financially robust market leader in design and make software, strategically investing in AI and cloud technologies to reinforce its wide economic moat and sustain consistent high-teen revenue and earnings growth. Its strong free cash flow generation and a new $5B share repurchase program underpin a compelling long-term compounder profile. While not a 10x opportunity within a 3-5 year horizon due to its large market cap and maturity, it offers attractive risk-adjusted returns for investors seeking stable growth and market dominance.
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ADSK Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$335.34
Bull Case
$372.60
Bear Case
$248.40
Valuation Basis
Based on 27x forward P/E applied to estimated FY2027 EPS of $12.42.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the current range of $230-$240, especially on dips towards the GF Value of $326.86 (indicating modest undervaluation).
Exit Strategy
Take initial profits at $330-$340, with a stop-loss order placed below the recent support levels, potentially around $220.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance due to its established market leadership and consistent performance.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ADSK Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
64.44
Forward P/E
31.18
Does ADSK Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
4 Identified
Autodesk's moat is highly durable due to its deep integration into professional workflows, the high cost and time involved for users to switch to alternative software, and its continuous innovation in AI and cloud. Its extensive patent portfolio and status as an industry standard further solidify its competitive position.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Emergence of significantly cheaper, AI-native design alternatives with minimal learning curves
- •Challenges in integrating new technologies (like generative AI) fast enough to maintain leadership
- •Increased adoption of open-source design software for basic tasks
ADSK Competitive Moat Analysis
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ADSK Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, indicated by analyst price targets significantly above current levels and strong FY2027 guidance.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
COO Steven M. Blum's family trust and direct holdings saw shares withheld for taxes on a PSU award on 2026-03-24, totaling approximately $2.8M in value. This was a net acquisition, not an open-market sale.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no unusual put/call ratio skew or large institutional block trades were reported.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late May 2026 (Q1 FY2027)
Surprise Probability
High (given recent Q4 FY2026 beat and strong guidance)
Historical Earnings Pattern
Autodesk typically sees a positive stock price reaction on earnings beats and strong forward guidance, often driven by its consistent performance and clear strategic vision.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Bentley Systems (BSY)
Market Share Trend
Stable to gaining, with notable outperformance in the AECO (Architecture, Engineering, Construction, Operations) segment, particularly in emerging markets.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a trailing P/E of 45.44, which is 23% below its historical median, and a forward P/E range of 19.14-31.18. Based on GF Value, ADSK is modestly undervalued. It likely trades at a premium to peers like Bentley Systems on certain metrics, given its broader market leadership and FCF generation (Bentley Systems noted for 'lagging FCF').
Competitive Advantages
- •Extensive, integrated product portfolio with high switching costs for users
- •Strong brand recognition and industry-standard software (AutoCAD, Revit)
- •Strategic focus on AI and cloud differentiation (Fusion 360, Construction Cloud)
- •Large global customer base and robust partner ecosystem
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ADSK Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 FY2027 Earnings Report (Estimated late May 2026)
- •Updates on agentic AI integration across core products
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Successful unification and adoption of Forma in enterprise renewals
- •Expansion of Construction Cloud and Fusion 360 market penetration
- •Strategic partnerships to enhance AI/cloud offerings
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Full integration of AI across all design and make workflows driving productivity gains
- •Continued market share gains in AECO and manufacturing sectors globally
- •Broad adoption of generative design and digital twin technologies
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ADSK?
- ✓
Sustained 15%+ YoY revenue growth through successful AI and cloud monetization.
- ✓
Continued expansion of free cash flow margins and strategic capital deployment.
- ✓
Successful penetration into new adjacent markets or verticals through acquisitions or organic expansion.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Autodesk Inc Makes Money
Autodesk Inc. is a leading provider of software for architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media and entertainment industries. The company makes money primarily by selling subscriptions to its extensive portfolio of design and make software products, such as AutoCAD for drafting, Revit for building information modeling, Fusion 360 for product design, and Maya for 3D animation. These subscription services grant customers access to powerful tools essential for creating and managing projects, establishing high switching costs and recurring revenue for Autodesk.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Autodesk Inc (ADSK)?
As of April 8, 2026, Autodesk Inc has a DVR Score of 4.7 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the risk level for ADSK stock?
Our analysis rates Autodesk Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ADSK?
Autodesk Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 64.4. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Autodesk Inc's revenue growing?
Autodesk Inc has reported revenue growth of 0.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is ADSK stock profitable?
Autodesk Inc has a profit margin of 0.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the ADSK DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Autodesk Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 8, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ADSK (Autodesk Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.