I Predicted Palantir at $27 – Here’s the Exact 3-Step Framework I Used (And Still Use)

In early 2024, Palantir (PLTR) was trading near $27 after a sharp earnings gap-up. The market was split. Some saw a stock running out of steam. Others called it too volatile. My framework showed something different. It flagged three signals that made Palantir a strong buy in my book. While many focused on short-term noise, I saw a long-term story just starting to play out.

To see the opportunity, you first need to see the doubts. Wall Street worried about Palantir’s reliance on government contracts. They also pointed to heavy stock-based compensation. Some even argued it was nothing more than a consulting firm. The numbers told a different story.

Skepticism like this is common. We saw the same thing with Cadeler (CDLR) in clean energy... dismissed too early before the growth trend became clear.

This is how my DVR scoring system lined up with Palantir’s story.

Signal 1: Sticky Software and High Switching Costs

Palantir’s moat is often misunderstood. It isn’t just software. The moat is switching costs. Once an organization like the U.S. Army builds its data systems on Gotham... or a company like Airbus runs supply chains on Foundry... replacing it is almost impossible. It becomes the central system everything relies on.

I give big weight to this type of “stickiness.” It creates steady and predictable revenue. The same factor drives upside in fintech platforms like Grab, where ecosystem lock-in is just as powerful.

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Signal 2: Commercial Growth at an Inflection Point

Most investors looked at government revenue. The real story was commercial growth. In Q4 2023, U.S. commercial revenue grew 70% year-over-year. Customer count jumped 55%.

This wasn’t just growth. It was acceleration. And it signaled that Palantir’s commercial business was hitting scale. A similar turning point showed up when I covered Zeta Global’s AI strategy... growth that most valuation models were ignoring.

Signal 3: Leadership With a Long-Term Focus

My system also scores leadership. CEO Alex Karp stood out. Many disliked his unconventional approach. I saw it differently. He prioritized mission and long-term alignment over short-term profits.

That kind of focus is rare. It’s also a trait I’ve found in other potential 10x companies. When I looked at Oscar Health, leadership vision again played a bigger role than Wall Street assumed.

This 3-step system still guides my analysis today. I use it to find companies with strong moats, businesses at inflection, and leaders with vision. One example is NBIS AI, which checks the same boxes I saw with Palantir.

I’ve put this framework into a free PDF checklist I use to vet every potential 10x stock. Use it to test your own stock picks against the same signals that flagged Palantir at $27.

If you want to go deeper, read my take on free cash flow vs. revenue. It pairs well with this framework and shows how to separate strong fundamentals from weak ones.