JOBY Stock: 3 Catalysts That Could Make It 10x (or Collapse)

Let's talk about Joby Aviation (JOBY). This is one of those stocks that's either a 10x winner or a zero... and frankly, there's not much in between. It’s a story that has captured the imagination of a lot of investors, and for good reason. We’re talking about the flying cars we were all promised.

But is it a real investment or just a science project? I’ve been digging into the numbers and the strategy, and as of November 2025, my opinion is that the game has changed.

Executive Summary & Investment Thesis

In my opinion, JOBY is a Speculative Buy.

My whole thesis boils down to this: I believe Joby just crossed its most dangerous hurdle... funding. The company has methodically de-risked its path to market, and its recent capital raise seems to give it a clear runway all the way to commercial launch. They have the lead, they have the best partner, and now they have the cash.

This is a venture capital-style bet, but one where the risk/reward just tilted in our favor. It's exactly the kind of setup I look for using my 10x Stock Checklist: My Exact 47-Point Analysis Framework.

What Exactly is Joby Aviation?

So, what does Joby actually do?

Think of Joby as a mix of Tesla, Boeing, and Uber. They are building a five-seat, all-electric aircraft that takes off and lands like a helicopter but flies fast and quiet like a plane (up to 200 mph).

But they're not just selling the planes. This is the crucial part. They are building the entire service.

1. They are the manufacturer: They're building the aircraft themselves (with a huge assist from Toyota).
2. They are the airline: They will own and operate the aircraft, offering a ride-sharing service to fly you from, say, downtown Manhattan to JFK airport in 7 minutes instead of 70.

That recent acquisition of Blade's passenger business? That was a genius move. It gives them a portfolio of landing spots and an existing customer base in key markets before their own plane is even certified. It's a turnkey solution.

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How Does Joby Beat Its Competitors (Like Archer)?

The "eVTOL" or air taxi market is insanely hot. You’ve got Archer (ACHR), Lilium, and a dozen others all fighting for the sky. The market itself is projected to be worth trillions by 2040. It's a gold rush, but like the ugly truth about 10x AI stocks, not all players will survive.

In a race this new, I believe there is only one thing that matters: FAA certification. You can't fly a single paying passenger without it.

This is Joby's moat.

As of this month (November 2025), Joby announced it has officially begun power-on testing of its first FAA-conforming aircraft. This is a huge milestone. It moves them into the final, brutal stage of certification. By my math, this puts them a solid 12 to 18 months ahead of their closest rival, Archer.

Their other moat? Toyota. Toyota isn't just an investor; they are Joby's partner for mass-production. No one else has a credible plan for how to build hundreds of these complex machines a year.

How Much Cash Does Joby Have... And What's Their Burn Rate?

Okay, let's look at the numbers. This is where most people get scared off... and where I think the real story is.

If you just glance at the Q3 2025 earnings, it looks like a disaster. A net loss of $401 million. An EPS miss at -$0.48.

But you have to look deeper. That $401 million loss wasn't all cash. It included a $229 million non-cash charge from warrant revaluations. In simple terms, this was a paper loss that only happened because the stock price went up. This is a perfect example of why overpaying for EPS growth can be so misleading, especially with pre-revenue companies.

Here are the numbers I'm looking at:

• Real Revenue: Joby actually made $23 million in Q3. This isn't zero. This is real cash from its Department of Defense contracts and the new Blade business.
• Real Cash Burn: The actual cash burn (what analysts call Adjusted EBITDA loss) was $133 million for the quarter.
• The Runway: This is the punchline. Joby ended Q3 with $978 million in cash. Then, in October, it closed a stock offering and added another $576 million.

If you do the math... that's a new cash pile of ~$1.55 billion.

At a burn rate of $133 million a quarter, this gives Joby a runway of nearly 12 quarters. That's almost 3 years. In my opinion, the "they're going to run out of money" argument just died. They appear to be fully funded through certification and into the start of commercial service.

Who is Running Joby Aviation?

For visionary bets, I like founder-led companies. CEO JoeBen Bevirt has been obsessed with this goal since 2009. This isn't a new idea for him.

The team has also shown it's playing chess. The acquisitions of Blade (for infrastructure) and Xwing (for future self-flying tech) prove they are thinking five steps ahead.

And the "smart money" is all over this. Toyota isn't just an partner... they've invested almost $900 million over the years. That's one of the world's best manufacturing companies putting its money and its reputation on the line.

What Are the Next Big Catalysts for JOBY Stock?

When you buy a stock like this, you're not buying last quarter's earnings. You're buying a ticket for a few massive, future news events. These are the catalysts... similar to what we tracked in our PRME stock analysis.

Here's what I'm waiting for:

1. FAA "For Credit" Flights (Est. Early 2026): This is the next giant domino. It's when FAA pilots physically get in the aircraft and start flying it to sign off on its safety. This would be a massive signal of confidence.
2. Full FAA Type Certification (Est. H2 2026 - 2027): This is the championship game. The day this news hits, Joby stops being a "story stock" and becomes a certified aircraft manufacturer. The entire valuation of the company will change overnight.
3. Commercial Launch in Dubai (Est. 2026): Joby is set to launch its first service in Dubai next year. This will be the world's first real look at the unit economics. Does it make money? How much?

Is JOBY Stock Overvalued in 2025?

With a $13.5 billion market cap and only $23 million in quarterly revenue... is it overvalued?

By any traditional metric, yes. It's absurd. The Price-to-Sales ratio is around 550x. You just can't value this like you'd value Coca-Cola. It's a different beast, much like the AI and EV stock NVTS.

Here's my take: The market isn't valuing the $23 million in revenue. It's valuing the option on Joby being the first to crack a trillion-dollar market. If they fail, the stock is a zero. If they succeed... $13.5 billion will look like a historic steal.

The "Hold" ratings from analysts and the wild price targets... from $8 all the way to $22... just prove that nobody really knows. That uncertainty is where you find 10x opportunities. If you want to learn how I sift through these, you can download my 10x Stock Checklist: My Exact 47-Point Analysis Framework for free.

What Are the Biggest Risks? (And When to Cut Losses)

I need to be very clear. Do not invest any money in this stock that you are not fully prepared to lose. It can go to zero. This isn't a safe utility stock... it's a high-stakes bet that could end up like our warning on BYND (Beyond Meat).

Here’s how it fails:

1. Certification Fails: This is the big one. A single, unexpected safety problem, a new regulation... anything that delays certification by a year or two could kill the company.
2. An Accident: A crash during this final testing phase would be catastrophic. Even a crash by a competitor could ground the whole industry and destroy public trust.
3. Execution Hell: Getting certified is one thing. Building a factory, managing a fleet, and launching an airline... all at the same time... is an operational nightmare.

So, what am I watching for? Here are my personal "red flag" triggers to cut losses:

• Any official news that delays the "FAA for credit" flights past mid-2026. That's the first sign the timeline is slipping.
• A surprise capital raise in 2026. They just told us they have enough cash. If they ask for more, it means their burn rate is out of control or a major delay happened.
• News that Archer (ACHR) has officially entered the TIA stage. This would mean Joby's #1 advantage... its lead... is evaporating.

This brings up a practical point: how do you actually track all this in real-time? A "set it and forget it" strategy is lethal here. You need to be active.

This is exactly why I rely on a powerful charting and alert tool like TradingView. It’s a no-brainer for a stock like JOBY. Here’s how you can use it to follow this thesis:

1. Go to TradingView and type JOBY in the search bar to pull up the live chart.
2. Track the Competition: Click the "Compare" or + button on the chart and add ACHR. This lets you instantly see if Archer's stock is outperforming Joby... one of our key red flags.
3. Set Smart Alerts (The Most Important Step): This is how you "cut losses" effectively. Click the "Alert" button (the little clock icon) on the chart. You can set alerts for everything:
   • Price Levels: Set an alert if JOBY breaks a key support level.
   • News: You can create alerts that notify you instantly if "FAA" or "Archer" is mentioned in a new headline.
   • Relative Performance: You can even set an alert for when ACHR/JOBY (the comparison ratio) crosses a certain threshold.

This way, you get notified immediately when a catalyst hits or a red flag appears, instead of finding out hours later. You can get started with their free plan.

My Final Take: Is JOBY a Buy?

In my opinion, Joby is the clear, best-of-breed horse in this race. It's not just a science project anymore. It's an execution story.

They have the cash, they have the best partner, and they have the lead. For me, that makes JOBY a Speculative Buy... a venture-style bet that belongs in the high-risk, high-reward part of your portfolio.

Don't take my word for it. Do your own homework.

Recommended Further Due Diligence:

1. Go read the Q3 2025 shareholder letter and listen to the earnings call. Listen to how management talks about the FAA timeline.
2. Google the "FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA)" process. Understand for yourself how many steps are left.
3. Keep an eye on the progress of their Ohio manufacturing plant. That's the key to scaling.
4. Use a tool like the TradingView Screener to find other stocks in the eVTOL or "future tech" space to compare against JOBY's valuation and momentum.

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