My Robinhood Trade: Why I Believe $HOOD is Headed to $150!

Sometimes you revisit a stock not because it’s trending, but because something shifts under the surface. That’s what’s been happening with Robinhood lately. I’ve held a position in $HOOD for a while now—and after looking at the numbers, the strategy, and where things might go from here, I’ve decided to double down.

It’s not because I think it’s going to the moon overnight. It’s because I see progress, some overlooked momentum, and a company that’s been reshaping itself in ways that the market might still be catching up to.

Why I'm Buying More Robinhood Shares

The last few quarters have changed how I view Robinhood’s trajectory. Q1 2025 caught my attention—revenue came in at $927 million, up 50% year-over-year. Even more striking, net income more than doubled to $336 million. Earnings per share? Up 106% to $0.37.

That kind of growth doesn’t happen by accident. They’re showing serious leverage in the business model, and it’s not just a one-off. It’s starting to look repeatable.

And that’s why I’m adding—not chasing, but leaning in.

In fact, some of the margin expansion we're seeing here reminds me of what I discussed in this breakdown of gross margin as a core metric. Robinhood’s improving efficiency isn’t just cosmetic—it’s driving bottom-line outcomes.

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Could Robinhood Stock Really Reach $150?

It’s a fair question. Robinhood’s trading around $90–$98 right now, so $150 does feel a bit ambitious on paper. But when I think about where this business is going—across crypto, interest income, and premium features—it’s not as far-fetched as it sounds.

It’s not about making that price target a short-term goal. It’s more about what the business could look like in a couple of years if current trends hold. The kind of re-rating that happens when a company grows into something fundamentally different than what it used to be.

It’s a play similar in spirit to my thinking behind doubling down on underpriced execution in Oscar Health. Execution matters more than headlines.

What’s Actually Fueling Robinhood’s Growth?

The company isn’t just riding market momentum anymore—it’s building a broader financial platform with multiple revenue levers.

Crypto is still a big piece. They brought in $252 million in crypto revenue last quarter, up 100% year-over-year. Trading volume hit $11.7 billion in May, up 65% YoY. That momentum might continue, especially with the Bitstamp acquisition expected to close later this year. That deal could open up more crypto features and help them expand globally.

But what’s been more interesting to me is the growth outside of trading. Robinhood Gold has hit 3.2 million subscribers, nearly doubling in a year. Their IRAs are gaining real traction—assets under custody have crossed $14 billion, up over 200% YoY. Net interest income hit $290 million in Q1, supported by a growing cash sweep program and margin book.

The increasing contribution from interest-based revenue also ties into why free cash flow margins tell you more than most headline numbers. It's less about flash and more about durable financial mechanics.

How Many Users Does Robinhood Have in 2025?

As of May 2025, Robinhood had 25.9 million funded customers. That’s up 7% year-over-year. They’ve also grown to 27 million total investment accounts.

But I think what matters more than just user count is how much each user is worth to the business. Average revenue per user (ARPU) is now $145, which is up 39% YoY. That kind of increase tells me they’re doing a better job monetizing their base.

And total platform assets (TPA) have grown to $255 billion, up 89% from a year ago. Just in May, net deposits were $3.5 billion. That kind of capital flow shows growing user trust and engagement.

When I look at those flows, I think back to how I contrasted free cash flow versus revenue as valuation tools. Robinhood’s numbers make a strong case for why focusing on user economics can often reveal more than just top-line trends.

Is Regulation Still a Major Risk?

It’s definitely something I keep an eye on. Robinhood still earns from payment for order flow, and the crypto side of the business always carries regulatory headlines.

But I don’t think it’s a showstopper. They’re already making moves to diversify their revenue mix. Their push into Europe with MiCA-compliant crypto offerings is a smart hedge. If anything, they’re adapting quicker than most fintech players I watch.

That doesn’t mean there’s no risk—it just means I don’t see it as existential.

Why I’m Comfortable Doubling Down

To be clear, this isn’t a “back up the truck” kind of move. But I like where things are heading enough to increase my exposure.

The fintech space is noisy. Competition is real. But Robinhood has a user experience that resonates, especially with younger investors. And the business model is evolving in a way that feels more mature—less hype, more substance.

It’s still a volatile stock. And there’s plenty that could throw off the pace. But at this point, I’m willing to lean into the progress and take on that risk.

It’s the same kind of risk-calibrated thinking I wrote about in my deep dive into ROIC myths and mistakes. Not every investment needs to be perfect on paper—some just need to be improving in the right direction.

What I’ll Be Watching Next

Now that I’ve added to my position, I’ll be paying close attention to a few things:

– How smoothly the Bitstamp acquisition closes and whether new crypto services (like staking) roll out
– Growth in Robinhood Gold and IRAs, which are key for long-term user value
– Any major regulatory shifts in crypto or trading structures
– How they position against players like SoFi, Schwab, and Coinbase
– Management tone in earnings calls—are they staying focused or chasing headlines?

Wrapping It Up

Robinhood’s story isn’t about being flashy anymore. It’s about turning into a stable, multi-product financial company that keeps growing.

That’s the version of Robinhood I’m betting on. Not the meme-era version, but the one that’s starting to look a lot more like a modern, diversified broker for the next generation.

And right now, I think that version still has room to run. That’s why I’m doubling down.