Is AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) Ready to Skyrocket? Key Metrics Before Q3 Earnings

AST SpaceMobile is working on something huge—they want to bring cell coverage to those really remote areas through satellites, connecting people where regular networks can’t reach. With their Q3 earnings report coming up on November 14, 2024, I wanted to take a closer look at whether ASTS might deliver a surprise this time around.

What Are Analysts Expecting for Q3 2024?

Here’s the rundown of what analysts are expecting for ASTS this quarter:

• EPS (Earnings Per Share): A projected loss of $0.20 per share
• Revenue: Expected around $24 million

For some context, ASTS reported a loss of $0.14 per share last quarter (Q2 2024), which actually beat expectations of a $0.19 loss. But revenue came in lower at $0.9 million when they were aiming for $2 million. The big question now is whether ASTS can step up the revenue and keep the trend going.

Is AST SpaceMobile Stock a Buy? Here’s What the Analysts Say

Analysts seem pretty positive on ASTS—they’ve given it a “Strong Buy” rating with an average price target of $43.73, which is way above the current price. This bullish sentiment could partly be because of the partnerships ASTS has set up with big names like Verizon and AT&T, which definitely add some credibility and potential reach for ASTS down the line.

How Does AST SpaceMobile Stack Up Against Its Competitors?

ASTS operates in the satellite and space tech sector, which has been doing well recently. Some of their peers have posted strong numbers:

• Rocket Lab ($RKLB): Recently reported a 55% revenue increase in Q3
• Iridium Communications ($IRDM): Brought in $212 million in revenue, beating estimates

This momentum among competitors shows the sector is healthy, which could be good news for ASTS as they’re building up their own operations.

Key Risks I’m Watching for AST SpaceMobile Stock

There are definitely some red flags to consider if you’re looking at ASTS:

• High Short Interest: About 35% of ASTS’s shares are shorted, meaning a lot of people are betting against it. High short interest often suggests some skepticism in the market.
• Negative Cash Flow: ASTS is currently spending more cash than it’s bringing in. It’s typical for a company in the growth phase, but they’ll need to show they can fund their expansion sustainably.
• Insider Selling: Over the last year, insiders sold around 127,000 shares totaling about $3.2 million. Insider selling doesn’t always mean something negative, but it’s worth noting.

Could AST SpaceMobile Stock Surge After Earnings?

Historically, ASTS’s stock has been pretty volatile after earnings. After their Q2 beat, for example, the stock jumped about 50% the next day. If they manage to beat again or show solid revenue progress, we could see another big move. But keep in mind the high short interest and insider selling; it could go either way depending on how the market reacts.

So, Is AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) a Buy Before Earnings?

Here’s where I’m landing: ASTS has the potential to surprise this quarter, with strong partnerships, positive analyst sentiment, and momentum in the sector. But it’s a high-risk, high-reward situation. With insider selling, high short interest, and cash flow challenges, there’s definitely some caution here.

If you’re okay with some risk and like ASTS’s long-term vision, it might be worth a closer look before earnings. But if you’re looking for a more stable play, it may make sense to watch from the sidelines and see how they perform on revenue growth and cash flow in the coming quarters.

Original Tweet 👉