YPF Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
YPF SA
Energy • Oil & Gas Integrated
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About YPF Stock
We analyzed YPF SA using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran YPF through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
YPF Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
High
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Sustained decline in Brent crude prices
- 📅
Higher-than-expected capital expenditure for LNG projects diverting FCF
- 📅
Political instability or policy changes in Argentina
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What Does YPF SA (YPF) Do?
Market Cap
$10.62B
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Integrated
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. Its upstream operations include the exploration, exploitation, and production of crude oil, and natural gas. The company's downstream operations include petrochemical production and crude oil refining; transportation and distribution of refined and petrochemical products; commercialization of crude oil, petrochemical products, and specialties. Its gas and power operations include transportation, commercialization, and distribution of natural gas; commercial and technical operation of regasification terminals; transportation, conditioning, processing, and separation of natural gas; and power generation. The company had interests in oil and gas fields. It also had a retail distribution network and retail service stations. In addition, the company owns and operates refineries, as well as maintains terminal facilities Argentine ports. Further, it participates in power generation plants; offers diesel, fertilizers, lubricants, phytosanitary products, and ensiling bags; and supplies diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, coal, asphalts, paraffin, and sulfur, CO2, decanted oil, and aromatic extract. The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Visit YPF SA WebsiteInvestment Thesis
YPF is undergoing a focused strategic transformation, prioritizing high-potential Vaca Muerta shale development while streamlining its portfolio through asset divestitures. The company's recent record EBITDA and improved leverage, coupled with new funding, indicate stronger operational and financial discipline. While still sensitive to Argentine macro and commodity volatility, its renewed focus aims to unlock significant long-term value in a critical domestic energy market, with potential for future LNG exports as a growth driver.
Is YPF Stock Undervalued?
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YPF Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$47.00
Bull Case
$54.00
Bear Case
$35.00
Valuation Basis
Based on Morgan Stanley's $47.00 price target (02/27/2026), citing shale growth and conventional disposals.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average on dips below $40.00, targeting support zones. Optimal entry on signs of sustained commodity price recovery.
Exit Strategy
Take initial profits at $47.00, re-evaluate above $50.00. Implement a trailing stop-loss below key support levels or if commodity prices significantly decline.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is YPF Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.71
Forward P/E
3.72
PEG Ratio
0.64
Price/Book
0.89
Price/Sales
0.55
Profitability
Net Margin
6.32%
Return on Equity
12.39%
EPS
$3.10
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.75
Quick Ratio
0.55
Debt/Equity
0.67
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$5.00B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.72
Does YPF Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
YPF's moat is largely underpinned by its strategic national importance and the vast, high-quality Vaca Muerta resource base. Government backing and long-term investment in this asset ensure its durability, though political shifts remain a risk.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Political intervention or policy instability in Argentina
- •Volatile global commodity prices impacting development economics
- •High capital intensity of shale development requiring consistent funding
YPF Competitive Moat Analysis
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YPF Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (no specific data, assumes normal discussion)
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to Positive (Consensus Hold but multiple recent price target increases by JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, HSBC)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Guillermo Jose Garat (executive) reported initial beneficial ownership of 7,324 Class D shares directly plus unvested awards for 10,000, 7,506, and 3,400 underlying Class D shares (vesting July 2026-2028) on 2026-03-17.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity reported)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Q2 2026 (Estimated May/June 2026)
Surprise Probability
Low
Historical Earnings Pattern
Mixed reactions (no specific historical pattern provided in data, assumes varied responses)
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
PBR
Market Share Trend
Gaining in key strategic segment (Vaca Muerta shale), divesting from non-core conventional assets.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a discount on TTM P/E (8.71) compared to some international majors, but forward P/E (18.04) and EV/EBITDA (6.43) need sector-specific peer data for true comparison. Often trades at a discount due to country-specific risks.
Competitive Advantages
- •Dominant position and preferential access to Vaca Muerta shale resources
- •Integrated operations across the Argentine energy value chain
- •Strategic importance as Argentina's national oil and gas company
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive YPF Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Upcoming Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated May/June 2026)
- •Progress updates on 2026 Vaca Muerta shale oil targets (215k bo/d average)
- •Completion of remaining conventional asset divestitures
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Divestment of 70% Metrogas stake in 2026
- •Further Vaca Muerta development project announcements
- •Argentine government announcements regarding YPF privatization or strategic partnerships
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Development and execution of major LNG export projects
- •Sustained stability in Argentina's political and macroeconomic environment
- •Global energy transition dynamics shaping demand for oil and gas
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for YPF?
- ✓
Consistent growth in Vaca Muerta production volumes
- ✓
Improvement in Free Cash Flow to positive territory
- ✓
Further deleveraging and balance sheet strengthening
- ✓
Clear progress on Metrogas divestment and any government privatization initiatives
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with YPF
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for YPF SA (YPF)?
As of March 23, 2026, YPF SA has a DVR Score of 3.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of YPF SA?
YPF SA's market capitalization is approximately $10.6B. The company operates in the Energy sector within the Oil & Gas Integrated industry.
What ticker symbol does YPF SA use?
YPF is the ticker symbol for YPF SA. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for YPF stock?
Our analysis rates YPF SA's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of YPF?
YPF SA currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.7. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is YPF SA's revenue growing?
YPF SA has reported revenue growth of 0.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is YPF stock profitable?
YPF SA has a profit margin of 6.3%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the YPF DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of YPF SA is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 23, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for YPF (YPF SA) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.