UAMY Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
United States Antimony Corp
Basic Materials • Other Industrial Metals & Mining
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About UAMY Stock
We analyzed United States Antimony Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran UAMY through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive investment. Here's what we found.
UAMY Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is the company's inability to rapidly scale revenue from Q1's $6.8M to meet its reiterated $125M FY2026 guidance, coupled with its failure to reverse the sharp decline in gross margin to 16% and stem the $11.29M net loss. This could lead to a rapid depletion of the recently raised $48.6M cash, necessitating further severe shareholder dilution or impairing ongoing capital projects, significantly jeopardizing long-term viability.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive investment
Financial
High
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
High
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 revenue of $6.8M, a -2.9% YoY decline, significantly off pace for the $125M FY2026 guidance.
- ⚠
Gross margin plummeted from 34% in Q1 2025 to 16% in Q1 2026, alongside a swing to an $11.29M net loss.
- ⚠
Cash and cash equivalents fell from $30.7M to $3.4M quarter-over-quarter, indicating severe cash burn.
- ⚠
Post-quarter equity raise of $48.6M by selling ~4.2M shares, signaling immediate funding needs and significant dilution.
- ⚠
Antimony cost per pound sold rose ~69% YoY to $16.28, eroding profitability and pricing power.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Miss on Q2 2026 revenue guidance of $25.15M (estimated early-August 2026): A significant miss would exacerbate concerns about the feasibility of reaching the $125M annual guidance and likely trigger further stock price decline.
- 📅
Continued sharp decline in gross margin below 15% (Q2 2026): Indicates persistent input cost issues or inability to price competitively, leading to unsustainable operational losses.
- 📅
Announcement of further large dilutive equity raise (Q3/Q4 2026): If cash burn persists, necessitating additional significant capital raises beyond the recent $48.6M, which would further depress share price.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if Q2 2026 revenue is reported below $20M, indicating a severe failure to ramp up production and sales.
- 🚪
Sell if gross margin falls below 10% in any subsequent quarter, suggesting an unsustainable cost structure.
- 🚪
Exit if cash and cash equivalents drop below $20M after the Q2 2026 earnings report, signaling continued high burn despite recent capital raise.
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What Does United States Antimony Corp (UAMY) Do?
Market Cap
$1.23B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Employees
60
United States Antimony Corporation produces and sells antimony, zeolite, and precious metals in the United States and Canada. It operates in two segments: Antimony and Zeolite. The company offers antimony oxide that is primarily used in conjunction with a halogen to form a synergistic flame retardant system for plastics, rubber, fiberglass, textile goods, paints, coatings, and paper, as well as color fastener in paints and as a phosphorescent agent in fluorescent light bulbs; antimony trisulfide used as a primer in ammunition; and antimony metal for use in bearings, storage batteries, and ordnance. The company also offers coarse and fine zeolite for soil amendment and fertilizer, water filtration, sewage treatment, nuclear waste and other environmental cleanup, odor control, gas separation, and animal nutrition applications, as well as in catalysts, petroleum refining, concrete, solar energy and heat exchange, desiccants, pellet binding, horse and kitty litter, traction control, ammonia removal from mining waste, and floor cleaners; carriers for insecticides, pesticides, and herbicides. In addition, it recovers unrefined and refined gold and silver. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Visit United States Antimony Corp WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If UAMY can execute an unprecedented operational turnaround, rapidly ramping Q2-Q4 2026 revenue to meet its $125M guidance, while simultaneously reversing the sharp decline in gross margins (back above 25-30%) and controlling operating expenses to achieve profitability, then the company could stabilize and potentially see a valuation recovery. This is bullish because the market is currently pricing in high growth that the Q1 results severely contradict, creating potential for a significant re-rating if a strong turnaround is demonstrated.
Is UAMY Stock Undervalued?
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UAMY Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$9.50
Bull Case
$12.00
Bear Case
$5.00
Valuation Basis
Base target reflects a cautious approach towards the pre-Q1 analyst consensus, adjusted for Q1 performance. A forward P/S of ~1.2x on an ambitious FY2027 revenue target of ~$150M would yield a market cap around $180M, or a share price around $1.17 if 153M shares outstanding, indicating how detached the current market cap ($1.22B) is from near-term profitability. My target is more speculative, assuming slight recovery if they hit Q2 guidance. The previous P/S of >12x on lower revenue shows market is valuing future growth, which is now heavily in question. A realistic target should reflect severe challenges. The stated analyst target of $11.00 is now likely stale given Q1 results. My 12-month target is a blend of analyst sentiment pre-Q1 and the severe financial deterioration observed.
Entry Strategy
Given the significant financial deterioration, current entry is highly speculative. Consider accumulating on sustained consolidation above $7.00, but only if Q2 2026 results demonstrate clear progress toward the $125M revenue guidance and significant margin improvement. Dollar-cost averaging below $7.50 may be considered by highly aggressive investors willing to take on extreme risk.
Exit Strategy
Take profit on any rallies above $11.00-$12.00, as these levels reflect previous analyst targets that are now likely optimistic. Implement a strict stop-loss at $6.50, representing a breakdown of recent support levels and signaling continued operational issues or a guidance miss.
Portfolio Allocation
0.5% for highly aggressive risk tolerance (speculative position only)
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is UAMY Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
527.00
Forward P/E
125.86
EV/EBITDA
286.99
PEG Ratio
3.11
Price/Book
23.46
Price/Sales
73.07
Profitability
Gross Margin
25.15%
Operating Margin
-13.09%
Net Margin
-11.05%
Return on Equity
-6.14%
Revenue Growth
162.81%
EPS
$-0.03
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
5.38
Quick Ratio
4.11
Debt/Equity
0.00
Total Debt
$972,544
Cash & Equivalents
$6.97M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$767,649
Free Cash Flow
-$8.44M
EBITDA
-$7.30M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.34
Does UAMY Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
⚪ None
Moat Trend
Eroding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The company's cost advantage appears to be eroding, with antimony input costs rising significantly. While mining rights can be an intangible asset, the high capital requirements, commodity price volatility, and lack of clear differentiation in processing suggest no durable economic moat. The business is subject to market forces and input cost fluctuations.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Continued increase in antimony production costs, further reducing gross margins and competitive pricing.
- •Increased global supply of antimony from competitors or new entrants, depressing prices and market share.
- •Lack of proprietary technology or processing methods that would create a defensible barrier.
UAMY Competitive Moat Analysis
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UAMY Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bearish: Recent negative Q1 earnings and significant dilution are likely to have dampened retail investor enthusiasm, despite the reiterated guidance.
Institutional Sentiment
Negative: While analysts (HC Wainwright & Co., B. Riley Securities) issued Buy ratings in Feb/March 2026 with targets of $11-$11.5, these predate the poor Q1 2026 report. No updates or new institutional disclosures were provided post-Q1, suggesting a likely negative shift in sentiment upon review of current financials.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 insider transactions (buy/sell) were included in the supplied source set for the last 90 days. Institutional ownership details provided (JPMorgan Chase & Co. at Dec. 31, 2025, and a later amendment) are not recent insider activity.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity provided in research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026 (for Q2 2026)
Surprise Probability
Low (Given the Q1 performance and the ambitious guidance, there's a high risk of disappointing investors further.)
Historical Earnings Pattern
No clear historical earnings reaction pattern is provided in the research, but given the significant Q1 miss on profitability and cash, a negative reaction to future disappointing reports is highly probable.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Not specified in the provided research. General critical minerals/mining companies would be peers.
Market Share Trend
Not provided in the research. Implied competitive pressure due to rising antimony input costs and lower gross margin.
Valuation vs Peers
A reliable sector comparison is not available from the provided materials due to lack of valuation metrics. However, given the severe negative margins and current market cap of $1.22B against $6.8M quarterly revenue, the company appears significantly overvalued on traditional metrics, relying solely on future, unproven growth.
Competitive Advantages
- •Focus on critical minerals (antimony and zeolite) aligned with strategic national interests.
- •Existing mining operations and processing facilities (Radersburg mill, Thompson Falls expansion) which offer some barrier to entry for new players.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive UAMY Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 earnings report (estimated early-August 2026): A significant beat on revenue consensus ($25.15M) and a substantial improvement in gross margin (e.g., back above 25%) are crucial to restore confidence in FY2026 guidance and potentially re-rate the stock.
- •Update on Radersburg mill and Thompson Falls expansion utilization (Q2/Q3 2026): Confirmation that these capital projects are contributing meaningfully to production capacity and revenue, validating the $12.6M Q1 capital expenditure.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Major new supply contract for antimony or zeolite (mid-2027): Securing a multi-year contract exceeding $50M in annual revenue with a strategic partner or government entity, signaling market demand and operational stability.
- •Sustained gross margin recovery to 30%+ (FY2027): Evidence across multiple quarters in 2027 that input costs are controlled and pricing power has improved, leading to a profitable operational model.
- •Path to consistent Free Cash Flow positivity (FY2027): Clear demonstration in 2027 of positive operating cash flow consistently exceeding capital expenditures, reducing reliance on dilutive financing.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Market leadership in North American critical antimony supply (FY2028-2029): If UAMY captures significant market share in antimony supply, supported by domestic demand and geopolitical tailwinds, enabling a revenue run-rate exceeding $250M with sustainable net margins.
- •Diversification and expansion into high-value zeolite applications (FY2028-2029): Successful development and commercialization of specialized zeolite products for new, high-margin industrial applications, adding a substantial, stable revenue stream.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for UAMY?
- ✓
Watch Q2 2026 revenue: Must significantly exceed the $25.15M consensus estimate to demonstrate a viable path to FY2026 guidance.
- ✓
Watch Q2 2026 gross margin: A recovery above 25% is critical to show control over production costs and pricing power.
- ✓
Watch cash burn rate: Monitor operating cash flow and capital expenditures against current cash balance to assess liquidity and future dilution risk.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with UAMY
See how United States Antimony Corp compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States Antimony Corp UAMY | $1.2B | 1.9 | 527.0 | $25.7M | -11.1% | 162.8% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.3B | 0.6 | 40.1 | $24.9B | 7.8% | -28.0% | Compare → |
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | Compare → |
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How United States Antimony Corp Makes Money
United States Antimony Corp (UAMY) is a mining and processing company focused on critical minerals, primarily antimony and zeolite. The company mines antimony ore, processes it into a refined product, and also mines and sells zeolite for various industrial and agricultural applications. It generates revenue by selling these processed minerals to industrial customers who use them in products ranging from flame retardants and batteries (antimony) to absorbents and soil conditioners (zeolite). The business model is reliant on successful extraction, efficient processing, and favorable commodity prices to generate profit from its sales.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for United States Antimony Corp (UAMY)?
As of May 22, 2026, United States Antimony Corp has a DVR Score of 1.9 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of United States Antimony Corp?
United States Antimony Corp's market capitalization is approximately $1.2B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Other Industrial Metals & Mining industry.
What ticker symbol does United States Antimony Corp use?
UAMY is the ticker symbol for United States Antimony Corp. The company trades on the ASE.
What is the risk level for UAMY stock?
Our analysis rates United States Antimony Corp's overall risk as Aggressive investment. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of UAMY?
United States Antimony Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 527.0. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is United States Antimony Corp's revenue growing?
United States Antimony Corp has reported revenue growth of 162.8%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is UAMY stock profitable?
United States Antimony Corp has a profit margin of -11.1%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the UAMY DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of United States Antimony Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 22, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for UAMY (United States Antimony Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.