TR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About TR Stock
We analyzed Tootsie Roll Industries Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran TR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Conservative. Here's what we found.
TR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is that Tootsie Roll, operating in a mature, commodity-price-sensitive market, fails to pass on rising input costs or innovate new products to maintain relevance. This could lead to gradual margin erosion and sustained single-digit revenue growth, causing the market to re-rate its premium valuation downwards.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Conservative
Financial
Low
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
High P/E (30.04-33.20) and P/B (>3.0) multiples relative to a modest 1% revenue growth rate.
- ⚠
Family-controlled management with a historical focus on stability and incremental gains, not exponential growth.
- ⚠
No identified strategic pivot, disruptive innovation, or aggressive market expansion plans.
- ⚠
Dependence on commodity prices (cocoa, sugar) for profitability.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Continued input cost inflation (cocoa, sugar) eroding margins
- 📅
Shift in consumer preferences away from traditional sweets
- 📅
Lack of strategic innovation or acquisitions
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if full-year revenue declines for two consecutive years.
- 🚪
Sell if gross margins fall below 30% for two consecutive quarters, indicating significant pricing pressure or cost issues.
- 🚪
Consider exiting if the stock's P/E multiple contracts significantly towards the sector median (e.g., below 20x) without a corresponding acceleration in earnings growth.
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Investment Thesis
Tootsie Roll Industries does not align with the criteria for high-risk, high-reward 10x growth potential within 3-5 years. Its investment thesis revolves around being a stable, dividend-paying company with strong, albeit mature, brands and a solid balance sheet, appealing to conservative investors seeking consistent income and capital preservation rather than exponential growth.
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TR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$42.00
Bull Case
$47.00
Bear Case
$35.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 30.5x P/E applied to estimated FY26 EPS of $1.38 (assuming 1% EPS growth from FY25 $1.37) = $42.09
Entry Strategy
Given the lack of significant growth catalysts and premium valuation, entry at current levels ($41.61) is neutral. Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards the 200-day moving average ($39-$40, if it retests).
Exit Strategy
Profit-taking at $45-$47 on any unexpected positive news or P/E expansion. A stop-loss level could be set below the 200-day moving average, around $38.50, if the stability thesis is broken.
Portfolio Allocation
1% for conservative investors seeking stability/income; 0% for moderate/aggressive investors targeting 10x growth.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is TR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
30.04
Forward P/E
33.20
Price/Book
3.15
Price/Sales
3.82
Profitability
Gross Margin
36.17%
Operating Margin
16.81%
Net Margin
12.72%
Return on Equity
10.36%
Revenue Growth
0.34%
EPS
$1.25
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.99
Quick Ratio
2.59
Debt/Equity
1.54
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$141.18M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.45
Dividend Yield
0.96%
Does TR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is durable due to the inherent stickiness and nostalgia associated with its classic confectionery brands. Consumers often have long-standing preferences for these products, providing consistent demand despite limited innovation.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Erosion of brand relevance among newer generations or shifting consumer health trends.
- •Increased private label competition or aggressive pricing from larger competitors.
- •Significant and sustained increases in commodity prices that cannot be fully passed on to consumers.
TR Competitive Moat Analysis
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TR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral - Minimal discussion due to the company's stable, non-growth profile.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral - Analyst consensus is 'Hold' (score 2.00), with minor new institutional stakes in Q3/Q4 2025. No strong institutional conviction for growth.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 filings reported for the last 90 days (post-December 24, 2025). The Gordon family maintains majority voting control.
Options Flow
Normal options activity - No specific unusual options flow indicating significant institutional positioning was reported.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-08
Surprise Probability
Low
Historical Earnings Pattern
Tootsie Roll typically exhibits stable and predictable earnings, leading to minor stock price movements post-earnings, reflecting its mature business model.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Not specified in research data
Market Share Trend
Stable - No specific data on market share shifts, implying a consistent position in a mature market.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a significant premium to the Consumer Staples sector median on Trailing P/E (30.04-33.20 vs ~17.73).
Competitive Advantages
- •Strong brand power with highly recognizable and enduring heritage products.
- •Established distribution network providing efficient market reach.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive TR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings (Expected May 8, 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Potential for minor organic product line extensions
- •Continued incremental market penetration in existing channels
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained brand loyalty in a mature confectionery market
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for TR?
- ✓
Any official announcement of a significant strategic pivot or major acquisition targeting high-growth segments.
- ✓
Sustained organic revenue growth exceeding 5% YoY for several consecutive quarters, signaling a break from its historical pattern.
- ✓
Leadership changes that indicate a shift towards more aggressive growth strategies.
Bull Case Analysis
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TR)?
As of March 24, 2026, Tootsie Roll Industries Inc has a DVR Score of 0.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc's market capitalization is approximately $2.7B..
What is the risk level for TR stock?
Our analysis rates Tootsie Roll Industries Inc's overall risk as Conservative. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of TR?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.0. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does Tootsie Roll Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Tootsie Roll Industries Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.96%.
Is Tootsie Roll Industries Inc's revenue growing?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc has reported revenue growth of 0.3%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is TR stock profitable?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc has a profit margin of 12.7%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the TR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 24, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for TR (Tootsie Roll Industries Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.