RACE Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Ferrari NV
Consumer Cyclical • Auto Manufacturers
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About RACE Stock
We analyzed Ferrari NV using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran RACE through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
RACE Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
While Ferrari's brand is robust, a severe global economic recession could temporarily dampen demand from its high-income customer base, particularly in key growth regions like the Middle East. Furthermore, missteps in the delicate balance of electrification and maintaining brand exclusivity could dilute its unique market position, hindering growth and potentially impacting margins.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Analyst previews for Q1 2026 indicate it could be Ferrari's 'weakest quarter' due to lower volumes.
- ⚠
UBS flags reliance on Middle East demand, which could be volatile.
- ⚠
High valuation multiples (Forward P/E 30.64-44.95, TTM P/E 48.87) for a company with inherently limited scalability for hyper-growth.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Weaker than expected Q1 2026 earnings due to lower volumes
- 📅
Significant global economic downturn impacting luxury consumer spending
- 📅
Increased regulatory pressure on ICE vehicles or EV mandates
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly order book significantly declines, indicating eroding demand.
- 🚪
Sell if management signals a shift away from controlled exclusivity towards mass production targets.
- 🚪
Exit if gross margins compress by more than 200 basis points over two consecutive quarters.
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What Does Ferrari NV (RACE) Do?
Market Cap
$60.28B
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Auto Manufacturers
Employees
5,493
Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. The company offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars. It also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after sales, repair, maintenance, and restoration services for cars; and licenses its Ferrari brand to various producers and retailers of luxury and lifestyle goods. In addition, the company operates Ferrari museums in Modena and Maranello; Il Cavallino restaurant in Maranello; and theme parks in Abu Dhabi and Spain. Further, it provides direct or indirect finance and leasing services; range of financial and ancillary services; special financing arrangements; and operates franchised and owned Ferrari stores. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy.
Visit Ferrari NV WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Ferrari represents a durable investment in ultra-luxury, benefiting from its iconic brand, scarcity-driven pricing power, and a measured strategy for product expansion and electrification. While not a 10x growth candidate, it offers stable long-term value appreciation and a defensive position against broader economic downturns for high-net-worth individuals.
Is RACE Stock Undervalued?
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RACE Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$469.06
Bull Case
$555.00
Bear Case
$310.00
Valuation Basis
41.6x forward P/E on estimated FY26 EPS of $11.27 ($338.28 current price / 30.0x forward P/E assumption)
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average on dips towards $320-$330, leveraging brand resilience.
Exit Strategy
Consider profit-taking at $450-$470 range. Set a stop-loss order if price breaks below $300 (key support level).
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for moderate risk tolerance due to strong brand and stability, but limited hyper-growth.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is RACE Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.61
Forward P/E
27.61
PEG Ratio
3.68
Price/Sales
7.47
Profitability
Gross Margin
50.00%
Operating Margin
28.20%
Revenue Growth
7.00%
EPS
$0.00
Balance Sheet
Total Debt
$2.87B
Cash & Equivalents
$1.37B
Does RACE Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Ferrari's moat is exceptionally durable, built on decades of racing heritage, exquisite craftsmanship, and a carefully cultivated image of exclusivity. This creates a powerful emotional connection and desire that competitors cannot easily replicate, ensuring demand outstrips supply.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Brand dilution from over-expansion or failed electrification strategy
- •Loss of relevance in an increasingly electrified and digitally-focused automotive landscape if not executed flawlessly
RACE Competitive Moat Analysis
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RACE Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (No strong bullish or bearish retail sentiment indicated, consistent with a stable luxury brand)
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral/Positive (Moderate Buy consensus from 16 brokerages; recent upgrades by Jefferies and Citigroup, but also a price target cut by UBS)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Ferrari NV repurchased 107,859 shares for €30.1M (March 23-27, 2026) as part of an ongoing share buyback program, holding 8.96% of issued shares as treasury.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual options activity or significant put/call ratio shifts reported in the provided intelligence.)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late April 2026 (Q1 2026 earnings expected imminently)
Surprise Probability
Medium (Analyst previews suggest potential for weakness, creating uncertainty for a positive surprise.)
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, Ferrari tends to be less volatile around earnings given its stable, luxury market positioning, but guidance on future production and demand remains key.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
None directly comparable (Unique ultra-luxury niche)
Market Share Trend
Stable (Ferrari operates in a niche that focuses on exclusivity and high value per unit rather than market share volume.)
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium to broader automotive peers due to its luxury status, but within range for its specific high-end segment where direct comparisons are few.
Competitive Advantages
- •Unparalleled brand strength and heritage
- •Exceptional pricing power due to scarcity and demand
- •High degree of customer loyalty and personalization
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive RACE Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings (imminent release)
- •2026 Annual General Meeting (April 15, 2026)
- •Continued share buyback program execution
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Further execution of electrification roadmap and new EV model launches
- •Expansion of 'lifestyle' branded products and experiences
- •Market penetration of Purosangue SUV
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained brand strength and pricing power in ultra-luxury segment
- •Innovation in performance EV technology and luxury customization
- •Expansion into new high-net-worth customer demographics
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for RACE?
- ✓
Continued growth in average selling price (ASP) and order backlog.
- ✓
Successful introduction and market acceptance of new electric models.
- ✓
Consistent execution of the share buyback program and strong free cash flow generation.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with RACE
See how Ferrari NV compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ferrari NV RACE | $60.3B | 1.4 | 27.6 | $7.1B | 0.0% | 7.0% | |
Amazon.com Inc AMZN | — | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Home Depot Inc HD | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
McDonald's Corp MCD | $221.1B | 0.1 | 26.4 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Nike Inc NKE | $88.8B | 1.8 | 35.1 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Tesla Inc TSLA | $1.1T | 4.0 | 152.0 | $91.0B | 3.4% | -3.2% | Compare → |
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How Ferrari NV Makes Money
Ferrari designs, engineers, produces, and sells ultra-luxury performance sports cars globally, targeting high-net-worth individuals. Beyond vehicle sales, the company also generates revenue from engines for Formula 1 and Maserati, branded merchandise, licensing agreements, and the management of its iconic Formula 1 racing team. Its business model thrives on extreme exclusivity, emotional appeal, and limited production, ensuring high demand and premium pricing.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Ferrari NV (RACE)?
As of April 7, 2026, Ferrari NV has a DVR Score of 1.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Ferrari NV?
Ferrari NV's market capitalization is approximately $60.3B. The company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector within the Auto Manufacturers industry.
What ticker symbol does Ferrari NV use?
RACE is the ticker symbol for Ferrari NV. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for RACE stock?
Our analysis rates Ferrari NV's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of RACE?
Ferrari NV currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.6. This is in line with broader market averages.
Is Ferrari NV's revenue growing?
Ferrari NV has reported revenue growth of 7.0%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is RACE stock profitable?
Ferrari NV has a profit margin of 0.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the RACE DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Ferrari NV is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 7, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for RACE (Ferrari NV) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.