OMDA Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Omada Health Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About OMDA Stock
We analyzed Omada Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran OMDA through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
OMDA Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is sustained gross margin compression and failure to achieve consistent GAAP profitability, which could lead to increased cash burn and necessitate dilutive fundraising rounds, eroding shareholder value.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Gross margin drop from 72.6% (previous implied) to 62.4% in Q1 2026, indicating pricing pressure or higher delivery costs.
- ⚠
Despite positive adjusted EBITDA, Q1 2026 reported a GAAP net loss, showing continued challenges in reaching full profitability.
- ⚠
Competitive intensity in the digital chronic care space remains high, with larger players potentially leveraging their scale.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Slower-than-expected PBM partner integration or member conversion
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure from larger healthcare players
- 📅
Regulatory changes impacting digital health or GLP-1 prescribing
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if YoY revenue growth decelerates below 20% for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if gross margin consistently falls below 55% without clear justification or recovery plan.
- 🚪
Exit if Adjusted EBITDA turns consistently negative again or cash runway significantly shortens.
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Investment Thesis
Omada Health is a high-growth player in the massive and underserviced digital chronic care market. Its recent strategic partnerships with major PBMs and expanded prescribing capabilities provide a significant tailwind for accelerated member growth and market penetration, positioning it for potential market leadership and substantial revenue scale-up within 3-5 years, driving a 10x return potential.
Is OMDA Stock Undervalued?
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OMDA Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$38.00
Bull Case
$54.00
Bear Case
$24.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 6.0x NTM P/S multiple applied to estimated $375M NTM revenue.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $14-$17 range. Support is around the IPO price and the recent low of $15.50.
Exit Strategy
Take initial profits at $35-$40, hold core position for 10x potential. Stop loss at $13.50 if growth decelerates below 20% or margins compress further.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for aggressive growth-oriented portfolios given its early public stage and high growth potential.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is OMDA Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-78.68
Profitability
Gross Margin
65.69%
Operating Margin
-5.41%
Net Margin
-4.91%
Return on Equity
-7.10%
Revenue Growth
42.00%
EPS
$-0.23
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.60
Quick Ratio
3.47
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.26
Does OMDA Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is strengthening due to the integration with major PBMs and the stickiness of chronic care programs which create high switching costs for members and payers. Brand recognition and a growing dataset also contribute to its durability.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intense competition from well-funded digital health startups and traditional healthcare giants.
- •Dependence on PBM partnerships for growth; any disruption could significantly impact reach.
- •Evolving regulatory landscape for digital health and prescribing practices.
OMDA Competitive Moat Analysis
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OMDA Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. Limited widely available data for public sentiment, likely mixed given recent public listing and financial results.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive. Significant institutional interest noted in previous analysis. Raised guidance and strategic partnerships are likely to maintain or increase positive sentiment.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 transactions included in the supplied results for the last 90 days. Previous analysis mentioned insider selling, so this is an improvement for sentiment if the selling has ceased.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual activity was provided in the research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Q1 2026 results, while showing a GAAP loss, had positive adjusted EBITDA and raised guidance, which typically garners a positive market reaction, especially for growth companies.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Hinge Health
Market Share Trend
Gaining ground through strategic PBM partnerships and strong membership growth, expanding reach within the virtual chronic care market.
Valuation vs Peers
Valuation is challenging without specific peer multiples provided. However, given its growth and recent public listing, it likely trades at a premium to established, slower-growth healthcare companies but may be in line or at a slight discount to other high-growth digital health peers.
Competitive Advantages
- •Robust PBM network: relationships with the three largest PBMs, significantly expanding distribution.
- •Comprehensive, multi-condition digital platform covering a broad cardiometabolic suite.
- •New prescribing capabilities enhance its full-spectrum care offering.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive OMDA Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (Expected August 2026)
- •Further updates on PBM partnership integrations and member enrollment acceleration
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion of GLP-1 Care Track offerings and market penetration
- •Continued multi-condition penetration across cardiometabolic suite
- •Major new strategic partnerships or employer contracts
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achieving sustained GAAP profitability and positive free cash flow
- •Establishing market leadership in virtual cardiometabolic and chronic care
- •Potential for M&A activity to consolidate market position
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for OMDA?
- ✓
Acceleration in YoY revenue growth and consistent positive Adjusted EBITDA.
- ✓
Improvement in gross margins and progression towards sustained GAAP profitability.
- ✓
Announcements of new large-scale employer or health plan contracts.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Omada Health Inc Makes Money
Omada Health provides a virtual-first chronic care management platform, helping individuals prevent and manage conditions like type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. They offer personalized digital programs, health coaching, connected devices, and now prescribing capabilities (especially for GLP-1 medications). Their primary customers are employers, health plans, and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), who offer Omada's programs to their employees or members as a benefit, paying Omada typically on a per-member or outcome-based fee.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Omada Health Inc (OMDA)?
As of May 14, 2026, Omada Health Inc has a DVR Score of 7.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Omada Health Inc?
Omada Health Inc's market capitalization is approximately $886.4M..
What is the risk level for OMDA stock?
Our analysis rates Omada Health Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of OMDA?
Omada Health Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -78.7. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Omada Health Inc's revenue growing?
Omada Health Inc has reported revenue growth of 42.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is OMDA stock profitable?
Omada Health Inc has a profit margin of -4.9%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the OMDA DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Omada Health Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 14, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for OMDA (Omada Health Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.