🔔Stock Alerts via Telegram — Free for All Users

MDB Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

MongoDB Inc

Technology • Software - Infrastructure

DVR Score

2.8

out of 10

Risk Trap

What You Need to Know About MDB Stock

We analyzed MongoDB Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran MDB through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.

Updated Mar 24, 2026Run Fresh Analysis →

MDB Risk Analysis & Red Flags

Risk Matrix

Overall

Moderate

Financial

Medium

Market

Medium

Competitive

High

Execution

Medium

Regulatory

Low

Upcoming Risk Events

  • 📅

    Lower-than-expected Q1 FY 2027 guidance or miss

  • 📅

    Increased competitive pressure from hyperscale cloud providers

  • 📅

    Broader slowdown in enterprise IT spending

Unlock MDB Risk Analysis & Red Flags

Create a free account to see the full analysis

What Does MongoDB Inc (MDB) Do?

0

Sector

Technology

Industry

Software - Infrastructure

Employees

5,654

MongoDB, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides general purpose database platform worldwide. The company provides MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution; MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premises, or in a hybrid environment; and Community Server, a free-to-download version of its database, which includes the functionality that developers need to get started with MongoDB. It offers professional services comprising consulting and training. The company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. and changed its name to MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013. MongoDB, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Visit MongoDB Inc Website

Investment Thesis

MongoDB is a key player in the rapidly expanding cloud database market, well-positioned to benefit from digital transformation and the increasing demand for AI-driven data solutions. Its strong Atlas platform, developer loyalty, and expanding customer base suggest continued robust revenue growth. The recent price dip, despite a strong earnings beat, could offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking exposure to the secular growth of cloud infrastructure and modern data management.

Is MDB Stock Undervalued?

MongoDB demonstrates strong leadership in the NoSQL database sector, driven by its multi-cloud Atlas platform and deep developer mindshare. Q4 FY26 revenue beat expectations significantly (+27% YoY), indicating robust execution, continued customer expansion, and high net retention. The company benefits from a vast and expanding cloud database market with noted AI tailwinds. Its competitive moat, including high switching costs, is expanding. However, achieving a 10x return from its current $21.96B market capitalization within 3-5 years remains exceptionally ambitious for a company of this scale, despite strong fundamentals. While poised for substantial continued growth, reaching a $220B+ valuation in such a short timeframe from its already large base would require unprecedented market expansion or disruption beyond current projections, making the 10x potential highly improbable.

Unlock the full AI analysis for MDB

Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more

MDB Price Targets & Strategy

12-Month Target

$345.00

Bull Case

$488.00

Bear Case

$170.00

Valuation Basis

Based on analyst median price targets for 2027, implying approximately 10x forward P/S on estimated FY27 revenue.

Entry Strategy

Consider dollar-cost averaging in the range of $260-$275, near recent support levels and after the post-earnings share price dip.

Exit Strategy

Take partial profits at $340-$350, with a stop-loss order placed below $250 to manage downside risk.

Portfolio Allocation

5% for a moderate-to-aggressive risk tolerance, given the company's growth potential but substantial valuation.

Price Targets & Strategy

Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies

Does MDB Have a Competitive Moat?

Sign in to unlock

Moat Rating

🛡️ Narrow

Moat Trend

Expanding

Moat Sources

3 Identified

Switching CostsIntangible Assets/IPNetwork Effects

MongoDB's moat is durable due to the high switching costs associated with migrating existing database infrastructure and the strong developer ecosystem built around its platform. Its intellectual property in the NoSQL space further reinforces its position.

Moat Erosion Risks

  • Aggressive competition from hyperscalers (AWS, Google, Microsoft) offering proprietary database services at scale
  • Potential for new open-source database technologies to erode market share or pricing power

MDB Competitive Moat Analysis

Sign up to see competitive advantages

MDB Market Intelligence

Sentiment & Insider Activity

Social Sentiment

Neutral, with potential for increased bullishness if strategic pivots gain traction.

Institutional Sentiment

Mixed but overall Positive: Moderate Buy consensus (26 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Buy). Recent upgrades (Mizuho, Scotiabank) and downgrades (Baird) indicate evolving sentiment; institutional ownership decreased by 10.44% MRQ.

Insider Activity (Form 4)

No specific Form 4 filings detailed for CEO/CFO or other key insiders in the last 90 days (post-January 24, 2026).

Options Flow

Normal options activity observed; no specific unusual put/call ratios or block trades were detailed in the provided intelligence.

Earnings Intelligence

Next Earnings

2026-05-28

Surprise Probability

Medium

Historical Earnings Pattern

Shares experienced a significant ~24% decline post-Q4 FY 2026 earnings report despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, suggesting market sensitivity to guidance or other forward-looking commentary.

Key Metrics to Watch

Atlas revenue growth and percentage of total revenueNet new customer additions, particularly enterprise accountsNon-GAAP operating income and operating margin trajectoryUpdated FY 2027 full-year revenue and profitability guidance

Competitive Position

Top Competitor

AWS DynamoDB

Market Share Trend

Gaining

Valuation vs Peers

Trading at a premium on forward Price-to-Sales compared to some mature enterprise software peers, reflecting its high growth rate in a strategic market. Unprofitable status limits P/E comparison.

Competitive Advantages

  • Leading developer mindshare and large community
  • Flexible, document-based data model for modern applications
  • Multi-cloud deployment flexibility with Atlas
  • High switching costs for existing users

Market Intelligence

Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium

What Could Drive MDB Stock Higher?

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • Q1 FY 2027 Earnings Report (expected May 28, 2026)
  • Continued execution of new CEO CJ Desai's go-to-market strategy

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • Accelerated adoption of Atlas platform in enterprise segment
  • Deeper integration and monetization of AI-driven database solutions

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • Further displacement of legacy relational databases in cloud migrations
  • Expansion into new geographic markets or specialized industry verticals

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts

What's the Bull Case for MDB?

  • Acceleration in Atlas cloud platform revenue growth beyond 30% YoY

  • Consistent improvement and eventual path to GAAP profitability

  • Net retention rate consistently above 120% reflecting strong customer value

Bull Case Analysis

See what could go right with Premium

Competing with MDB

See how MongoDB Inc compares to related companies

CompanyMarket CapDVR ScoreP/ERevenueProfit MarginRev Growth

MongoDB Inc

MDB

2.8$2.5B0.0%23.0%

Apple Inc

AAPL

$3730.0T1.432.1$391.0B0.0%0.0%Compare →

Alphabet Inc

GOOGL

$3570.0T1.027.10.0%0.0%Compare →

Meta Platforms Inc

META

5.1Compare →

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

0.5Compare →

NVIDIA Corp

NVDA

$4.4T5.338.5$215.9B55.6%65.0%Compare →

📊 Explore More Stock Analysis

Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.

FAQ

What is the DVR Score for MongoDB Inc (MDB)?

As of March 24, 2026, MongoDB Inc has a DVR Score of 2.8 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What ticker symbol does MongoDB Inc use?

MDB is the ticker symbol for MongoDB Inc. The company trades on the NGM.

What is the risk level for MDB stock?

Our analysis rates MongoDB Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

Is MongoDB Inc's revenue growing?

MongoDB Inc has reported revenue growth of 23.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.

Is MDB stock profitable?

MongoDB Inc has a profit margin of 0.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.

How often is the MDB DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of MongoDB Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 24, 2026.

Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for MDB (MongoDB Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Navigated to MDB Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis