MC Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Moelis & Co
Financial Services • Capital Markets
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About MC Stock
We analyzed Moelis & Co using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran MC through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
MC Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is a prolonged downturn in the global M&A market and capital markets. As a human-capital intensive advisory firm, Moelis's revenue and profitability are directly tied to deal volume, which could lead to sustained EPS declines, lower valuations, and decreased client activity beyond the Q1 2026 projections.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
High
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 EPS consensus projects a significant 36-37% YoY decline, indicating near-term headwinds.
- ⚠
General Counsel Osamu R. sold shares, resulting in a 35.70% ownership decrease, which can signal lack of confidence.
- ⚠
Critical financial metrics like current ratio, total debt, and free cash flow were not available in the real-time intelligence, limiting comprehensive financial risk assessment.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Deterioration of M&A market conditions (as suggested by Q1 2026 EPS guidance)
- 📅
Increased competition from larger investment banks
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue drops below Q4 2025's $487.94M for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if significant insider selling by the CEO or CFO occurs, signaling a lack of confidence from top leadership.
- 🚪
Exit if the global M&A market shows clear signs of protracted decline (e.g., deal volumes down >20% YoY for two consecutive quarters).
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What Does Moelis & Co (MC) Do?
Market Cap
$4.44B
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Capital Markets
Employees
1,308
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters, as well as strategic, capital structure and markets, and private funds advisory. The company offers its services to public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. Moelis & Company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Visit Moelis & Co WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Moelis & Co is a high-quality, profitable independent investment bank with strong client relationships and expertise, poised to deliver steady returns and a healthy dividend yield. While it lacks the characteristics for 10x growth, it offers a relatively stable investment within the cyclical financial advisory sector for those anticipating an eventual M&A market recovery.
Is MC Stock Undervalued?
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MC Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$75.00
Bull Case
$90.00
Bear Case
$59.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 16.5x forward P/E applied to estimated FY26 EPS of $4.55 (assuming a recovery after Q1 and aligning with median analyst target).
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the current $55-$60 range, which is near the lower end of analyst price targets and potentially forms a support zone.
Exit Strategy
Take profit at analyst median target of $75-$76; consider re-evaluation or partial exit at high analyst target of $90. Set a stop loss below recent lows, e.g., $50 to limit downside.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for moderate risk tolerance, given its cyclical nature and stable but limited growth profile.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is MC Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.47
Forward P/E
28.10
EV/EBITDA
4.40
PEG Ratio
0.59
Price/Book
11.70
Price/Sales
4.40
Profitability
Net Margin
15.36%
Return on Equity
41.67%
Revenue Growth
11.20%
EPS
$1.13
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.90
Dividend Yield
4.59%
Does MC Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Moelis's moat is built on its reputation for excellence, the deep relationships of its rainmakers, and its specialized expertise. These are difficult to replicate quickly but are susceptible to loss of key talent or prolonged industry downturns.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Reliance on key individual rainmakers whose departure could impact deal flow
- •Intense competition from larger bulge-bracket banks and other independent advisories
- •Cyclicality of the M&A market directly impacts the volume of high-value transactions.
MC Competitive Moat Analysis
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MC Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, as no specific data indicating strong retail or social media interest was provided.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to Negative; analyst consensus is 'Hold' (10 out of 12) with Goldman Sachs recently cutting its price target to $62.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Director Louise Mirrer acquired 20.07 '2025 Annual' RSUs + 14.84 + 0.46 '2024 Annual' RSU dividend-equivalents on March 26, 2026. General Counsel Osamu R. sold shares, decreasing ownership by 35.70% prior to March 2026.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific unusual put/call ratio or large block trades indicating institutional positioning provided.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-29
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
No clear historical earnings reaction pattern provided in the research data; Q4 2025 was a beat, but Q1 2026 consensus is significantly lower.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Evercore (EVR)
Market Share Trend
Stable; no recent market share shifts or threats detailed in the research.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a discount on Trailing P/E (18.46-19.47 vs sector avg 65.34) and PEG (0.00-0.59 vs sector avg 1.58), suggesting it is not overvalued relative to a broader financial sector, though direct independent advisory peers might have different metrics.
Competitive Advantages
- •Deep client relationships and trusted advisor status
- •Expertise in complex and high-stakes transactions (M&A, restructuring)
- •Independent and unbiased advisory model
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive MC Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report (expected April 29, 2026)
- •Global M&A market activity changes (interest rate environment shifts)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Sustained recovery in capital markets and advisory activity
- •Potential new strategic hires or expansion into specialized advisory niches
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Evolution of independent advisory's role vs. bulge brackets
- •Macroeconomic trends impacting global deal flow over multiple years
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for MC?
- ✓
Acceleration in global M&A deal volumes and announced transactions
- ✓
Improvements in independent investment banking sector sentiment and analyst upgrades on peers
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with MC
See how Moelis & Co compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moelis & Co MC | $4.4B | 3.2 | 19.5 | $487.9M | 15.4% | 11.2% | |
Bank of America Corp BAC | $352.6B | 0.1 | 12.9 | $113.1B | 16.2% | 12.3% | Compare → |
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Mastercard Inc MA | — | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Visa Inc V | $585.4B | 1.4 | 28.8 | $10.9B | 50.2% | 14.6% | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Moelis & Co (MC)?
As of April 2, 2026, Moelis & Co has a DVR Score of 3.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Moelis & Co?
Moelis & Co's market capitalization is approximately $4.4B. The company operates in the Financial Services sector within the Capital Markets industry.
What ticker symbol does Moelis & Co use?
MC is the ticker symbol for Moelis & Co. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for MC stock?
Our analysis rates Moelis & Co's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of MC?
Moelis & Co currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.5. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Moelis & Co pay a dividend?
Yes, Moelis & Co pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 4.59%.
Is Moelis & Co's revenue growing?
Moelis & Co has reported revenue growth of 11.2%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is MC stock profitable?
Moelis & Co has a profit margin of 15.4%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the MC DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Moelis & Co is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 2, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for MC (Moelis & Co) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.