JCI Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Johnson Controls International PLC
Industrials • Building Products & Equipment
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About JCI Stock
We analyzed Johnson Controls International PLC using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran JCI through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
JCI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Low
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 FY2026 earnings miss or downward revision of guidance
- 📅
Increased competition in data center cooling or smart building segments
- 📅
Rapid shift in cooling technologies (e.g., warm-water cooling) impacting demand for traditional chillers
- 📅
Macroeconomic slowdown impacting commercial construction spending
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What Does Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) Do?
Market Cap
$79.38B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Building Products & Equipment
Employees
87,000
Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Building Solutions North America, Building Solutions EMEA/LA, Building Solutions Asia Pacific, and Global Products. The company designs, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, air conditioning, controls, building management, refrigeration, integrated electronic security, integrated fire detection and suppression systems, and fire protection and security products. It also provides energy efficiency solutions and technical services, including inspection, scheduled maintenance, and repair and replacement of mechanical and control systems, as well as data-driven smart building solutions. In addition, the company offers access control software and software services. It sells its products and services to commercial, institutional, industrial, data center, and governmental customers. Johnson Controls International plc was incorporated in 1885 and is based in Cork, Ireland.
Visit Johnson Controls International PLC WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Johnson Controls is a well-managed, strategically focused industrial leader poised to benefit from global trends in sustainable and smart buildings, particularly in data center cooling. Its strong Q1 FY2026 results, raised guidance, and strategic divestiture underscore a positive operational trajectory and solid fundamental growth, making it a compelling investment for steady, moderate capital appreciation rather than exponential 10x returns.
Is JCI Stock Undervalued?
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JCI Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$141.00
Bull Case
$158.00
Bear Case
$115.00
Valuation Basis
30x forward P/E applied to company's raised FY26 EPS guidance of $4.70
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average on dips towards $125-$130 range, targeting former resistance now potential support. The 50-day SMA is likely below the current price, presenting a potential entry point for patient investors.
Exit Strategy
Consider profit-taking above $145, particularly near the 52-week high of $146.49. Stop loss at $118 (below recent lows and potential support breaks).
Portfolio Allocation
3-5% for moderate risk tolerance, given its established market position and stable growth prospects rather than high-risk, high-reward.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is JCI Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.29
Forward P/E
26.27
PEG Ratio
1.46
Profitability
Net Margin
14.17%
Return on Equity
17.15%
Revenue Growth
3.40%
EPS
$5.29
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.38
Dividend Yield
1.23%
Does JCI Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
4 Identified
JCI's moat is durable due to its vast installed base, the high switching costs associated with complex building systems, and its strong brand built over decades. Its investment in the OpenBlue digital platform and next-gen cooling expands its IP and further enhances customer stickiness.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Disruptive new technologies from agile startups in smart building or cooling solutions
- •Aggressive pricing by competitors in key growth segments
- •Cybersecurity threats to its digital platforms
JCI Competitive Moat Analysis
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JCI Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. Generally positive due to performance, but large-cap industrial stocks rarely generate high social media buzz for exponential growth.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive. Indicated by 'Moderate Buy' consensus, several recent analyst target raises (JPMorgan Chase from $138 to $158, Morgan Stanley from $130 to $140, Wells Fargo from $135 to $145, Rothschild & Co Redburn from $137 to $150), and an upgrade to Overweight/Buy.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Director Mark Vergnano purchased 7,665 shares on February 5, 2026. VP Todd M. Grabowski sold 6,050 shares on February 6, 2026. Mixed activity, but a notable director buy.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual call/put ratio or large block trades were flagged in the provided intelligence.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-06
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, JCI tends to react positively to earnings beats and upward guidance revisions, as seen with the stock's recent strong performance following the Q1 FY2026 report.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Carrier Global (CARR)
Market Share Trend
Stable to gaining in strategic high-growth segments (e.g., data center cooling, smart building software) through focused investment and divestitures.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a slight premium to some industrial peers on forward P/E, justified by strong recent growth and strategic pivot to higher-margin areas.
Competitive Advantages
- •Extensive global install base and service network
- •Strong brand recognition and reputation in building technologies
- •Proprietary OpenBlue digital platform for smart buildings
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive JCI Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 FY2026 Earnings on May 6, 2026 (guidance $1.11 EPS)
- •Continued strong organic order and backlog growth
- •Successful integration and margin improvement from residential HVAC divestiture
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion of OpenBlue platform adoption in commercial buildings
- •Increased demand for energy-efficient and smart building solutions globally
- •Growth in data center cooling market share, mitigating concerns from evolving technologies
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •JCI establishing dominant market share in next-generation sustainable building technology
- •Leveraging AI infrastructure buildout for smart building optimization
- •Strategic acquisitions to enhance service capabilities and software offerings
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for JCI?
- ✓
Acceleration in OpenBlue adoption metrics and associated recurring revenue growth
- ✓
Consistent double-digit organic order growth in strategic segments
- ✓
Improvements in operating and net margins, especially from service-led initiatives
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with JCI
See how Johnson Controls International PLC compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Johnson Controls International PLC JCI | $79.4B | 3.0 | 5.3 | $24.0B | 14.2% | 3.4% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc. HON | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
As of March 23, 2026, Johnson Controls International PLC has a DVR Score of 3.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Johnson Controls International PLC?
Johnson Controls International PLC's market capitalization is approximately $79.4B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Building Products & Equipment industry.
What ticker symbol does Johnson Controls International PLC use?
JCI is the ticker symbol for Johnson Controls International PLC. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for JCI stock?
Our analysis rates Johnson Controls International PLC's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of JCI?
Johnson Controls International PLC currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.3. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does Johnson Controls International PLC pay a dividend?
Yes, Johnson Controls International PLC pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 1.23%.
Is Johnson Controls International PLC's revenue growing?
Johnson Controls International PLC has reported revenue growth of 3.4%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is JCI stock profitable?
Johnson Controls International PLC has a profit margin of 14.2%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the JCI DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Johnson Controls International PLC is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 23, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for JCI (Johnson Controls International PLC) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.