HOG Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Harley-Davidson Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About HOG Stock
We analyzed Harley-Davidson Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran HOG through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
HOG Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
High
Competitive
High
Execution
High
Regulatory
Low
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Further declines in core motorcycle sales
- 📅
Worse-than-expected Q1 2026 earnings or guidance cut
- 📅
Impact of Sportster S recall on brand perception/sales
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Investment Thesis
The investment thesis hinges on a successful and accelerated turnaround via the 'Hardwire' strategy, particularly the significant scaling of LiveWire and new adventure segments, which could potentially reignite growth and attract new demographics. However, current execution, financial performance, and market sentiment suggest this is a high-risk bet with limited evidence of near-term success required for 10x growth.
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HOG Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$18.50
Bull Case
$21.67
Bear Case
$15.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 10x conservative estimated FY26 EPS of $1.85, reflecting limited growth potential.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $16.00-$17.50 range, near recent lows and consolidating support.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $20.00, remaining at $21.50. Set a stop loss at $15.50 to limit downside.
Portfolio Allocation
1% for aggressive risk tolerance, considering the high-risk, low-reward profile for 10x potential.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is HOG Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
6.75
Forward P/E
11.18
Price/Book
1.23
Profitability
Operating Margin
11.00%
Net Margin
8.00%
Return on Equity
10.42%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.10
Quick Ratio
1.83
Debt/Equity
0.94
Total Debt
$2.97B
Cash & Equivalents
$1.31B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$692.10M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.42
Dividend Yield
4.40%
Does HOG Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Eroding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
While the brand is iconic, its appeal is weakening among younger demographics. The shift to EVs and changing consumer preferences are eroding the long-term durability of the traditional brand moat.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Shifting consumer preferences and demographics
- •Intensifying competition from new EV entrants and established players
- •Failure to successfully pivot and innovate beyond traditional offerings
HOG Competitive Moat Analysis
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HOG Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bearish, reflecting general market skepticism about turnaround.
Institutional Sentiment
Negative, with recent analyst downgrades (UBS, Wells Fargo) and price target cuts.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Net selling by multiple executives: Tori Termaat (CHRO) sold 1,239 shares ($25.30k) on Feb 17, 2026; Jonathan R. Root (CFO and CCO) sold 821 shares ($16.76k) on Feb 17, 2026; Glen Koval (SVP Motorcycle Development) sold 742 shares ($15.15k) on Feb 17, 2026; Do Charles (SVP, HDFSI) sold 4,241 shares ($76.74k) on Mar 12, 2026. No CEO/CFO buys.
Options Flow
Normal options activity, without significant directional bias indicated.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-07
Surprise Probability
Low
Historical Earnings Pattern
Mixed reactions, but recent earnings misses and guidance cuts have typically led to negative stock price performance.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
PII
Market Share Trend
Losing/Stable in core segments, attempting to gain in new segments but challenged.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a low trailing P/E (6.41-6.58), suggesting the market is pricing in declining future earnings or lack of growth.
Competitive Advantages
- •Iconic Brand Power and legacy
- •Established dealer and service network
- •Significant customer loyalty within traditional base
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive HOG Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings on May 7, 2026
- •Continued execution of 'Hardwire' strategy initiatives
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Further LiveWire model releases and market penetration
- •Stabilization of core motorcycle sales or growth in adventure touring
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Successful pivot to electric vehicle market leadership (LiveWire)
- •Demographic shift towards new rider segments
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for HOG?
- ✓
Consistent positive revenue growth in LiveWire and adventure touring segments
- ✓
Improvement in overall gross and operating margins
- ✓
Positive insider buying activity from key executives
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with HOG
See how Harley-Davidson Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harley-Davidson Inc HOG | $2.0B | 1.1 | 6.8 | — | 8.0% | 0.0% |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
As of March 23, 2026, Harley-Davidson Inc has a DVR Score of 1.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Harley-Davidson Inc?
Harley-Davidson Inc's market capitalization is approximately $2.0B..
What is the risk level for HOG stock?
Our analysis rates Harley-Davidson Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of HOG?
Harley-Davidson Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.8. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does Harley-Davidson Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Harley-Davidson Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 4.40%.
Is Harley-Davidson Inc's revenue growing?
Harley-Davidson Inc has reported revenue growth of 0.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is HOG stock profitable?
Harley-Davidson Inc has a profit margin of 8.0%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the HOG DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Harley-Davidson Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 23, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.