DECK Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Deckers Outdoor Corp
Consumer Cyclical • Footwear & Accessories
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About DECK Stock
We analyzed Deckers Outdoor Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran DECK through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
DECK Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Escalation of tariff headwinds or new trade restrictions impacting cost of goods
- 📅
Increased promotional activity in the competitive footwear market leading to margin compression
- 📅
Significant shift in consumer fashion trends away from UGG or Hoka styles
- 📅
Supply chain disruptions impacting product availability or costs
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What Does Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) Do?
Market Cap
$14.26B
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Footwear & Accessories
Employees
5,500
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally. The company offers premium footwear, apparel, and accessories under the UGG brand name; footwear, such as running, trail, hiking, fitness, and lifestyle shoes, as well as apparel and accessories under the HOKA brand name; and sandals, shoes, and boots under the Teva brand name. It also provides a casual footwear fashion line under the Koolaburra brand name; and footwear products under the AHNU brand name. The company sells its products through domestic and international retailers, international distributors, and directly to its consumers through its direct-to-consumer business, which includes e-commerce websites and retail stores. Deckers Outdoor Corporation was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Goleta, California.
Visit Deckers Outdoor Corp WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Deckers Outdoor is a well-managed company leveraging the explosive growth of Hoka and the resurgence of UGG into lifestyle categories. Its strong profitability, robust cash generation, and disciplined capital allocation create a compelling investment, with Hoka's continued global expansion providing the primary long-term growth driver, offering potential for significant appreciation from its current base.
Is DECK Stock Undervalued?
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DECK Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$129.00
Bull Case
$193.20
Bear Case
$90.90
Valuation Basis
Based on 21.9x forward P/E applied to consensus FY2026 EPS of $5.89.
Entry Strategy
Consider initiating a position around the current price ($102-$105) or on any dips towards the $95-$100 range, which could represent a minor support zone.
Exit Strategy
Consider taking initial profits at the median analyst target of $125-$130. Set a stop-loss order below recent support at $90.00.
Portfolio Allocation
5-8% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is DECK Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.50
Forward P/E
24.30
EV/EBITDA
18.20
PEG Ratio
1.80
Price/Book
12.40
Price/Sales
3.10
Profitability
Gross Margin
58.00%
Operating Margin
18.00%
Net Margin
14.00%
Return on Equity
42.00%
Revenue Growth
12.00%
EPS
$3.66
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.10
Quick Ratio
1.40
Debt/Equity
0.15
Total Debt
$450.00M
Cash & Equivalents
$680.00M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$520.00M
Free Cash Flow
$380.00M
EBITDA
$580.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.05
Dividend Yield
0.80%
Does DECK Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Deckers' moat is strengthened by the strong, distinct brand identities of Hoka and UGG, which foster customer loyalty. Continued investment in product innovation and disciplined market management further solidifies these intangible assets, making them difficult to replicate.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Fashion trends can be cyclical and unpredictable, impacting demand for UGG and even Hoka's lifestyle offerings.
- •Intense competition from established giants and emerging brands in both performance and lifestyle footwear.
- •Over-reliance on a few key brands; brand dilution if expansion is poorly managed.
DECK Competitive Moat Analysis
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DECK Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral/Positive given strong recent earnings and brand momentum, though specific data is absent.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, indicated by recent analyst upgrades (Argus, KGI) and a 'Moderate Buy' consensus rating, despite some maintaining 'Sell'.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
One reference notes 'Insiders Place Their Bets' but provides no detailed transaction data for specific Form 4 filings within the last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no unusual put/call ratio or large block trades are specified in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late May/early June 2026 (for Q4 FY2026)
Surprise Probability
High
Historical Earnings Pattern
Typically positive stock price reaction to earnings beats and upward guidance revisions, as observed with Q3 FY2026.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Adidas (ADS.DE)
Market Share Trend
Gaining (driven by Hoka's strong growth and UGG's expansion into new lifestyle segments).
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a reasonable P/E of 14.24, which is competitive for its growth profile within the apparel and footwear sector; potentially at a discount to high-growth pure-play athletic brands.
Competitive Advantages
- •Strong brand equity and loyal customer bases (Hoka, UGG)
- •Disciplined marketplace management and high full-price selling leading to superior gross margins
- •Product innovation and expansion into high-growth categories (performance running, lifestyle sneakers)
- •Efficient capital allocation demonstrated by share repurchases
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive DECK Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q4 FY2026 Earnings (Estimated late May/early June 2026)
- •Continued strong performance and market acceptance of Spring 2026 collections for UGG and Teva
- •Further expansion of UGG's Lowmel lifestyle sneaker franchise
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Accelerated international expansion and market share gains for Hoka
- •Strategic partnerships or collaborations for key brands (Hoka, UGG)
- •Continued operational leverage driving margin expansion beyond current guidance
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Hoka achieving status as a top-tier global athletic footwear brand, rivaling incumbents
- •Diversification and growth across the Deckers brand portfolio, reducing reliance on any single brand
- •Sustainable innovation in materials and design positioning brands as leaders in performance and lifestyle
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for DECK?
- ✓
Sustained double-digit revenue growth for Hoka, especially international expansion rates
- ✓
Stability or improvement in overall gross and operating margins
- ✓
Successful penetration and market share gains for UGG's new lifestyle sneaker categories
- ✓
Management commentary on consumer demand and competitive landscape
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with DECK
See how Deckers Outdoor Corp compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deckers Outdoor Corp DECK | $14.3B | 8.2 | 28.5 | $3.8B | 14.0% | 12.0% | |
Amazon.com Inc AMZN | — | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Home Depot Inc HD | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Lululemon Athletica Inc LULU | $18.8B | 3.0 | 11.1 | $11.1B | 0.0% | 5.0% | Compare → |
Nike Inc NKE | $88.8B | 1.8 | 35.1 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Tesla Inc TSLA | $1.1T | 4.0 | 152.0 | $91.0B | 3.4% | -3.2% | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)?
As of March 24, 2026, Deckers Outdoor Corp has a DVR Score of 8.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Deckers Outdoor Corp?
Deckers Outdoor Corp's market capitalization is approximately $14.3B. The company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector within the Footwear & Accessories industry.
What ticker symbol does Deckers Outdoor Corp use?
DECK is the ticker symbol for Deckers Outdoor Corp. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for DECK stock?
Our analysis rates Deckers Outdoor Corp's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of DECK?
Deckers Outdoor Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.5. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Deckers Outdoor Corp pay a dividend?
Yes, Deckers Outdoor Corp pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.80%.
Is Deckers Outdoor Corp's revenue growing?
Deckers Outdoor Corp has reported revenue growth of 12.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is DECK stock profitable?
Deckers Outdoor Corp has a profit margin of 14.0%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the DECK DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Deckers Outdoor Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 24, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.