AMTM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Amentum Holdings Inc
Industrials • Specialty Business Services
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About AMTM Stock
We analyzed Amentum Holdings Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran AMTM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
AMTM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Despite strategic contract wins, Amentum operates in a low-margin industry, and a significant economic downturn or shift in government spending priorities could severely impact their core revenue streams, making it difficult to service debt and fund growth initiatives. The high TTM P/E also implies little room for operational missteps without a corresponding valuation re-rating.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 FY2026 revenue missed estimates ($3.24B vs. $3.32B) and was down 5.2% YoY.
- ⚠
Low net margin of 0.69% in Q1 FY2026.
- ⚠
High TTM P/E of 63-76.63 for a low-margin business.
- ⚠
Vanguard's 13G/A filing (March 26, 2026) reporting 0% ownership post-realignment could signal an institutional exit.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 FY2026 earnings miss or downward revision of FY2026 guidance
- 📅
Significant government budget cuts impacting defense/infrastructure spending
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Consistent revenue declines for two or more consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Net margin falling below 0.5% consistently.
- 🚪
Debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 2.0 without corresponding asset growth or deleveraging plan.
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What Does Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM) Do?
Market Cap
$6.14B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Specialty Business Services
Employees
50,000
Amentum Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of engineering and technology solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions. The company offers digital and data-driven solutions, including intelligence analytics, space system development, cybersecurity, and IT to the federal government and commercial clients. It also provides large-scale environmental remediation, nuclear power solutions, platform engineering, sustainment, and supply chain management for the U.S. government and allied nations. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia.
Visit Amentum Holdings Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Amentum, a stable government services provider, is strategically positioning itself in high-value, long-term growth sectors like nuclear (SMRs) and digital infrastructure, evidenced by its recent $406M UK SMR contract. Despite low overall margins and a recent revenue miss, the company's EPS beat and reaffirmed guidance, coupled with strong government relationships and specialized expertise, suggest predictable, if not explosive, growth in critical infrastructure markets, offering a steady, albeit low 10x potential, investment.
Is AMTM Stock Undervalued?
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AMTM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$37.60
Bull Case
$49.00
Bear Case
$27.00
Valuation Basis
16x forward P/E on company's reaffirmed mid-point FY26 EPS of $2.35.
Entry Strategy
Consider initiating a position or dollar-cost averaging at current levels (~$26.34) or on dips towards the lower end of the analyst price target range ($30.00).
Exit Strategy
Consider taking profits as the stock approaches $40-$42 (Truist target). Implement a stop-loss order below recent support at $25.00-$26.00.
Portfolio Allocation
3-7% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is AMTM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
62.97
Forward P/E
10.79
EV/EBITDA
10.73
PEG Ratio
0.76
Profitability
Gross Margin
10.75%
Operating Margin
3.49%
Net Margin
0.46%
Return on Equity
1.29%
Revenue Growth
-5.20%
EPS
$0.27
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.32
Quick Ratio
1.24
Debt/Equity
0.90
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$1.02B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.25
Does AMTM Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Amentum's moat is durable due to the high barriers to entry in critical government and nuclear infrastructure projects. Their specialized expertise, long-term relationships, and regulatory compliance create significant switching costs and scale advantages for clients, ensuring persistent revenue streams for 10-20 years.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Government budget cuts or shifts in strategic spending priorities impacting core contracts.
- •Intense competition from other large, established government and defense contractors.
- •Challenges in attracting and retaining highly specialized technical talent.
AMTM Competitive Moat Analysis
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AMTM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. No specific data indicating significant retail interest.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral/Mixed. Analyst consensus is 'Hold', but the median price target implies upside. Truist reiterated 'Buy'. Vanguard's 0% ownership post-realignment is a potential negative signal.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 filings reported for buys/sells by individuals (including CEO/CFO) in last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual activity reported.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-May 2026
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Insufficient data to establish a consistent historical reaction pattern. Q1 FY2026 saw an EPS beat but revenue miss.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
J (Jacobs Solutions)
Market Share Trend
Stable, with potential for gaining share in specialized, high-value segments (e.g., nuclear, digital infrastructure) through strategic contract wins.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a high TTM P/E (~63-76) compared to some peers in the government services sector like Jacobs Solutions (which typically trade lower P/E for higher margins). However, a PEG of 0.92 suggests reasonable valuation for its reported growth rate.
Competitive Advantages
- •Deep, long-standing relationships with government entities
- •Specialized technical expertise (e.g., nuclear, complex defense systems)
- •Ability to manage large-scale, complex, long-duration contracts
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive AMTM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 FY2026 Earnings (Estimated early-May 2026)
- •Continued positive commentary on UK SMR project execution
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •New contract awards in nuclear, space, or digital infrastructure segments
- •Progress updates on UK SMR program milestones
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Expanded role in global Small Modular Reactor (SMR) development
- •Leveraging specialized expertise in defense/government modernization programs
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for AMTM?
- ✓
Acceleration in organic revenue growth and expanding contract backlog in high-value segments.
- ✓
Consistent improvement in net operating margins.
- ✓
Successful execution and expansion of projects like the UK SMR program.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with AMTM
See how Amentum Holdings Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amentum Holdings Inc AMTM | $6.1B | 3.0 | 63.0 | $14.4B | 0.5% | -5.2% | |
L3Harris Technologies, Inc. LHX | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
URA URA | — | 7.2 | 2.3 | $612.5M | 0.0% | 0.0% | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM)?
As of April 2, 2026, Amentum Holdings Inc has a DVR Score of 3.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Amentum Holdings Inc?
Amentum Holdings Inc's market capitalization is approximately $6.1B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Specialty Business Services industry.
What ticker symbol does Amentum Holdings Inc use?
AMTM is the ticker symbol for Amentum Holdings Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for AMTM stock?
Our analysis rates Amentum Holdings Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of AMTM?
Amentum Holdings Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 63.0. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Amentum Holdings Inc's revenue growing?
Amentum Holdings Inc has reported revenue growth of -5.2%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is AMTM stock profitable?
Amentum Holdings Inc has a profit margin of 0.5%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the AMTM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Amentum Holdings Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 2, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for AMTM (Amentum Holdings Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.